I have a bad feeling that if that line is built (the Orlando to Tampa line only since it seems to be getting the most push) it would have low user ship like the Metro Rail in Miami. Allowing people to say "see mass transit is a huge waste of money".
Even though the Metro line in Miami was suppose to be one of many lines (which never got built) it was too easy to pick on. Killing or slowing down any other further development of mass transit in Miami.
Though I must say I have no idea about how many Tampians (is that right lol) and Orlandians transverse between the two metros. And more important how many would find a train station that is near their arrival and departure station. Though I guess that is more of a issue that deals more with local transit.
Nothing is definite, but the way this is hashing out makes it seem very unlikely that both high-speed rail proposals in Florida will get funding---at least anytime soon---and that (as you said) Orlando/Tampa certainly seems the safest bet if only one gets federal money.
If we put aside our civic biases, it probably
is the more sensible route, at least for the moment. Obviously, it's far cheaper from a construction standpoint just by being much more compact and certainly the gap between the Orlando metro area and Tampa Bay has blurred enough in the past 20 years or so that there probably is some economic and commuter interplay between the two.
Agreed not many would ride it at the start. In fact, I'd
guarantee it would initially be seen as a colossal boondoggle and a waste of money...as would a Miami/Orlando line. 25 years from now, however, it might just look inspired. Especially is car ownership continues to evolve from an occassionaly pricey nuisance to a VERY expensive habit---as it likely will.
The cities that have the best transit infrastructure will be best able to react to that reality, and high-speed rail will be a huge asset at that point, imo.
You're also right that Metrorail has been a national poster child for wasted transit funding, too. Most of the blame goes (rightly) to the original planners who VERY stupidly didn't include an airport stop AND mapped every station north of downtown with silly notions of social engineering and a false belief they would create economic activity AND foisted completely ludicrous ridership projections (250,000 daily was the number they used...reality was about 15% of that).
But, still, it WAS fixable by adding the extensions needed---along with strong planning. It's not as if other cities didn't get it wrong with transit planning. Hell, there's a totally abandoned subway station here in Philly that hasn't been used in 30 years but a million folks a day still ride the rails. You don't just give up because you get something wrong.
But Metrorail never had that chance. Ronald Reagan gave it the kiss of death in the 80's (and thus the poster-boy status) when he famously used Miami as an example of federal waste, saying it would be "cheaper to hire everybody a limousine" than continue to fund Metrorail. He spoke those words more as a reasoning for gutting federal spending on transit nationally, but the cut was deepest locally...especially with a popular president calling it out. Metrorail became the symbol, and was soon known as "Metrofail" even among locals. It's a shame. So much initial promise wasted.
Anyway, there remains a glimmer of hope. Will Metrorail itself ever get fleshed out into the big system once envisioned? Nope. No chance in hell. BUT there's renewed impetus on urban transit---especially with light-rail initiatives. Miami (MDTA specifically) absolutely needs to re-jigger themselves to the new reality and plan accordingly, including efficient trolley lines that feed into (and invigorate) the aging Metrorail itself before it simply becomes too much bother to even fund anymore.
It CAN be done. Whether or not MDTA is paying attention is another matter.
