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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
I've been an avid follower of the weather and tropics since I was a child. It's my hobby and I love it with a passion. As Summer closes in, we are seeing things begin to settle into place. Here is a brief analysis that followers of weather (amateurs, such as myself), meteorologists, and hurricane specialists are seeing, early on in the Summer, for this tropical season:
Certainly have a ridge over us (New Orleans) now, which is keeping us hot and dry. And the ridge is getting pretty solid..it's been in place, now, for several weeks. Carl Arredondo, on WWL-TV, in New Orleans, says that if this ridge remains peristent, we could see a return to many East coast storms for this season, as has been discussed by quite a few mets and specialists. As Carl says, "Not to say that we won't have any storms in the Gulf, but, the ridge, as it is now, will be a good thing for the Northern Central Gulf." It's still early, but, we are heading into a Summer pattern, as June approaches, and these Summer ridges that develop are quite persistent and stubborn...it usually takes fronts or a major change in patterns to move these Summer ridges. We'll see...we've got some time, for sure, but, obviously, Summer is setting itself up, right now, as it does every year in early June. With the pattern as it is now, I'd be a helluva lot more worried if I lived in NYC, or the Outer banks, than living in Mobile or New Orleans. With the ridge, storms that make it into the GOM, will be pushed West to Texas, or will move up the East Coast between the ridge over the Central Gulf and the Bermuda High straight up the East Coast. Stay tuned.
 

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When was the last great hurricane that rocked NYC? I remember Hurricane Gloria not too long ago and it ripped up NJ but I don't remember how it affected NYC. And also, what's the risk of a Katrina style deluge in NYC? I'm not doubting that it could happen and the danger is there, but we're not exactly below sea level the way NO is.
 

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Could happen...

boybaha said:
When was the last great hurricane that rocked NYC? I remember Hurricane Gloria not too long ago and it ripped up NJ but I don't remember how it affected NYC. And also, what's the risk of a Katrina style deluge in NYC? I'm not doubting that it could happen and the danger is there, but we're not exactly below sea level the way NO is.
But the thing is that New Orleans was more affected because it is below sea level. New York City isn't so probably the only thing it would do to the New Yorkers is a flood.
 

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Discussion Starter · #4 ·
The danger zone for NYC is Manhatten...with the right hit, you would see flooding in most of Manhatten is we witnessed in New Orleans last year. One difference, when the storm passed, Manhatten would drain..it would not stay for two or three weeks, as it did in New Orleans. The rest of NYC would mainly sustain wind damage from the hurricane and affiliated tornadoes. Also, when tropical systems reach NYC, they generally are moving at a good clip, so hurricane conditions would generally last under 6 hours. That's not to say, let your guard down, as NYC is overdue a storm, but, the scenarios with New Orleans and NYC are different. Manhatten would be able to tackle flood damage, from storm surge, much quicker than New Orleans was able to do last year with Hurricane Katrina.
 

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Sean is right, if New York gets hit by a Katrina type storm or Cat 5, remember that Katrina was a Cat 4, Manhattan and Long Island is in trouble. If any salt water enters the subway systems, there is no subway system and when the water is drained there is still no way on traveling on the subways. Long Island will be covered with about 8 feet of water. You may look at it now and say, "well it won't be that bad", but look what happens when you speculate too early, The mayor of NO thought that the levees wouldn't fail, but they did.

And I know that NYC isn't below sea level, but one of the counties near my county isn't below sea level either, but if a Cat 5 or 4 hits this area, that county will only be 2 small islands and everything else will be underwater. Not mentioning that are downtown will be underwater and MacDill AFB too.
 

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I see somebody has been watching that History channel program about the hurricane of 1938, and has been reading all those panic articles that the newspapers are putting out now to cash in on the Katrina craze...
Don't worry, a Hurricane could hit NYC, they've already hit the area so many times before, this topic is nothing original, and NYC will cope much better than New Orleans. The biggest problem for NO was the surge and the levees breaking, as far as I'm concerned, Manhattan is a big rock, and while downtown might be underwater, the rest is mostly okay. Of course the subways and tunnels will suffer, as well as the lowlying regions of Queens and Brooklyn. But again, it should be easy to clean up in a couple of months, at most they'll reopen the Fresh Kills :D

IMO, the biggest question, about hurricanes in NYC, isn't whether it will hit or not... it's where should I go to experience the hurricane! Should I go to Long Island, but then I don't want to go too close to the shore and be swept away... or stay in Manhattan and take pictures of New Venice? :D
Of course I have already experienced an urban hurricane-like storm, back in christmas of 1999 in Paris, winds in excess of 200kph, that's around 130mph (I think), so now I kinda wonder how it's like to be in a house instead
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
3tmk said:
I see somebody has been watching that History channel program about the hurricane of 1938, and has been reading all those panic articles that the newspapers are putting out now to cash in on the Katrina craze...
Don't worry, a Hurricane could hit NYC, they've already hit the area so many times before, this topic is nothing original, and NYC will cope much better than New Orleans. The biggest problem for NO was the surge and the levees breaking, as far as I'm concerned, Manhattan is a big rock, and while downtown might be underwater, the rest is mostly okay. Of course the subways and tunnels will suffer, as well as the lowlying regions of Queens and Brooklyn. But again, it should be easy to clean up in a couple of months, at most they'll reopen the Fresh Kills :D

IMO, the biggest question, about hurricanes in NYC, isn't whether it will hit or not... it's where should I go to experience the hurricane! Should I go to Long Island, but then I don't want to go too close to the shore and be swept away... or stay in Manhattan and take pictures of New Venice? :D
I have no idea what program you are talking about, but, I am aware of PM's I've been exchanging with the NHC in Miami, and various mets in the SE and Colorado in the last two weeks. If a hurricane threatens NYC and you decide to go to Long Island, don't forget to write in black marks-a-lot your SS# for future identification, on your forearm It's what we recommend down here for people refusing to leave harms way. The other recommendation, is, if you stay home and refuse to leave, be sure and keep an ax in your attic. That sure came in handy last year in New Orleans, after Katrina, didn't it!! :eek2:
 

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oh come on, that's just BS, nothing's going to happen.
Unless if it's a cat-5 storm, I'll stay.
The most common hurricanes to pass here are at maximum a cat-3, and that's nothing. Of course the real problem isn't from the wind, but from the surge, if it floods the city, but again, Manhattan will quickly get rid of that water, except for downtown, so it's much more different from New Orleans.
So unless if you live on the shore, or close to it, then you have nothing to fear, except for the occasional falling tree. A building is the best way to pass out a storm. Just border up the windows, get some water and food, and you're set to go!
Now, if you live in a mobile home, you're in danger
 

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^^^Lol, so eager.

YO GUYS, GIVE IT UP! WE ARE SOOOOO DUE FOR ONE. It is inevitable. It would devistate us. The country would be fucked beyond belief. We're all gonna die if we stay here. Clean up would take sooo long. So long Jones beach, so long fire island, far rockaway, montauk... Hello to shitty times for all, and beachfront property in oceanside finally.
 

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but this reminds me, a real concern would have been for a structure like the Citigroup center, before they fixed the crossbracing problem. Of course now, at most, it would only be an anecdote for the sway of the ESB spire, which will probably move far from its base :p
 

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Let it hit, as long as they close down the schools, I'm good.
 

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Discussion Starter · #14 ·
Hmmmm...ever wonder if Sean in New Orleans may have been speaking with Dr. Gray or his assistants? You have to wonder, New Yorkers. Why in the hell did I come to your own forum, for the first time, ever, and post this stuff (the day before it was released to the public)???

Hurricane forecaster still expects active season

12:21 PM CDT on Wednesday, May 31, 2006
Associated Press



FORT COLLINS, CO -- The 2006 hurricane season in the Atlantic will be active, but fewer major storms are likely to make landfall than last year, Colorado State University researchers said Wednesday.


An updated forecast from a team led by William Gray calls for 17 named storms in the Atlantic basin between Thursday and Nov. 30. The team said nine storms are expected to become hurricanes, and five of those are expected to develop into intense or major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.


Last year, the National Hurricane Center in Miami reported 28 tropical storms, 15 hurricanes and seven intense hurricanes in the Atlantic. One of the storms was unnamed because it was originally considered subtropical but was reclassified as tropical after the season ended, Hurricane Center spokesman Dennis Feltgen said.


Long-term averages are 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes, Gray's team said.


"If the atmosphere and the ocean behave as they have in the past, we should have a very active season, but that doesn't necessarily translate into storms that produce as much destruction as last year," said Gray, who has headed the hurricane forecast team for 22 years.


The forecast listed an 82% chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall in the U.S. this season, compared with the long-term average probability of 52%.


It listed a 69% chance of a major hurricane making landfall on the East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, compared with 31% long-term, and a 38% chance of landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas, compared with 31% long-term.


Gray said Atlantic hurricane seasons are likely to be active for 15 to 20 more years but another season as busy as 2004 and 2005 is statistically unlikely.

http://www.wwltv.com/local/stories/wwl053106khforecaster.3db756a7.html
 

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Im worried what would happen to the Whitestone with its weight problems and the Verrazano Bridge becuase its so tall and its right on the ocean. As well as some of the buildings in the city and of course flooding.
 

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The biggest danger in Manhattan isn't the wind or flooding per se... it's the possibility of Manhattan being without power for a day or more, and stores & restaurants being closed or running out of stuff to sell. People who live in places like Manhattan don't tend to keep lots of food around the house, because 1) they don't have much room, 2) the grocery store is a few hundred feet away, so they can go buy whatever they need in 10 minutes, and 3) restaurants within walking distance or free delivery are everywhere.

The problem is, if that corner grocery store and those restaurants end up closed for more more than a day, lots of people are going to be eating microwave popcorn (if they have power) and cereal that day. If they're closed for two days, they're going to run out of microwave popcorn, junk food, and cereal after eating it for breakfast, lunch, AND dinner for two days. If they're closed for three days, middle-class people start breaking into grocery stores because they've eaten everything in the house, and all the #####ing stores and restaurants are still closed. Four days, and little old ladies will be using their canes as weapons to bludgeon housewives for cans of soup in looted stores.

Or... almost as bad... the corner stores and restaurants reopen almost immediately, power or not, but start running out of everything within a day or two because their supply chains are all disrupted (tunnels flooded, trucks can't get through), and they themselves only have enough stock on hand to last 3 or 4 normal days, let alone days when the lines are out the door.

The most important thing ANYONE who lives in Manhattan can do is make sure they have enough food, toilet paper, Diet Coke, and whatever else they regard as essential to last a week, including 2 or 3 days' worth that can be eaten without needing power or water. TO some extent, just about every big city is vulnerable to supply chain disruption, but Manhattan specifically is at more risk than most because most people and businesses there literally depend on daily supply delivery (for many businesses, space in Manhattan is so expensive, it's cheaper to keep supplies at a warehouse 20 miles away and make daily just-in-time deliveries with almost no surplus on hand at the individual stores).

Personal tip: Jiffy-pop pops really well on gas grills. God knows, I ate a shitload of it during the 15 days I was without power after Wilma and had to watch DVDs to entertain myself (generator not big enough to run the Microwave, cable out, and every Radio Shack within a hundred miles cleaned out of TV antennas)...
 

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They can travel up out of the city to Stew Leonard's or something. It's the "world's largest dairy store" and probably the world's largest grocery store. I'm serious, that grocery store is fucking huge. It's not just a dairy store either. There's probably more regular food there than dairy items. If they need other things, they can go to Palacades Mall. NYC will be fine. I don't know about Long Island, where I live. We live right on a beach too.
 

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if a hurricane above cat 3 hit new york, about 50% of the glass on all skyscrapers would be blown out.constrcution standards for new york are lower than in the south because they're more geared towards different weather conditions.
 
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