SkyscraperCity banner

1 - 20 of 600 Posts

·
#AfricaRising
Joined
·
500 Posts
Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
Kenya's economic growth (to 2030) could be highest in Sub-Sahara Africa - World Bank
Kenya’s economic growth could be the highest in sub Saharan Africa over the next 15 years according to a new World Bank report.

The Bank’s half yearly Pulse report on the African economy said that Kenya’s growth should remain “robust” at around 6.2 per cent until 2030, well above that of many other African economies who will suffer from China’s economic slowdown and restructuring away from foreign investment and towards domestic consumption.

Africa’s Pulse found that progress in reducing income poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa has been occurring faster than previously thought.
According to World Bank estimates poverty in Africa declined from 56 per cent in 1990 to 43 per cent in 2012.
source:


source:

Doubting Thomases, I wish you well :colgate:.
Patriotic Kenyans, let's do our part to help not only meet but exceed these expectations. God bless Kenya!
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,297 Posts
Corruption is a major problem yes but i believe the World bank report took that into consideration when doing their 15 year projection. It's an African report and i believe most of africa is afflicted by corruption
 

·
#AfricaRising
Joined
·
500 Posts
Discussion Starter #4
Let me tell you a secret about corruption

To me NO!!why?This disease called corruption!!!until we deal with menace Which is so chronic and on epic levels,then talking off will naturaly take its full effect
While we all hate corruption and condemn it in the strongest possible terms, did you know that corruption per se does not really impede economic growth, in fact some economists argue that it enhances it. Look at China. Corrupt to the core yet booming like a bad virus for the past 35 years. The argument is that unlike USA, Germany and other so called advanced economies (which have sophisticated mega-corruption of their own below the radar) where every i must be dotted and t crossed, corruption cuts through red tape fast and thus speeds up capital formation because cash can be exchanged to speed up processes that would ordinarily take forever to conclude.

Bureaucracy on the other hand is what impedes growth. The bureacratic struggles SGR, Tiomin and (now Lapsset) have to go through in terms of land compensation battles and parliamentary probes, all in the name of preventing corruption may be costing us trillions of shillings in opportunity costs as the battles rage on. Unless the processes to check and fight corruption are fast and effective, fighting corruption (while good) will actually curb growth big time, so while fighting corruption is a great thing, it becomes counter-productive when the fight becomes mired in beureacracy, and ends up hurting the economy via direct costs (legal/probe/police/EACC costs) as well as opportunity costs such as lost time, man hours, lost exports and efficiencies that could have been gained sooner and so much more IMHO.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,297 Posts
^^ Depends on the type of corruption. Corruption to influence tender award to contractors actually capable of doing the job has less of an effect than those where money meant for infrastructure/development is diverted to peoples pockets. China is the former
 

·
#AfricaRising
Joined
·
500 Posts
Discussion Starter #6
^^ Depends on the type of corruption. Corruption to influence tender award to contractors actually capable of doing the job has less of an effect than those where money meant for infrastructure/development is diverted to peoples pockets. China is the former
Point taken but guess what, even that money diverted to peoples pockets does not just sit in the bank. It buys property, it invests in industry, it builds the economy. Even if it sat in the bank, the bank uses it to invest in government securities and the government uses the money to build those same same infrastructure projects you speak of :lol:.

The only time it would be a problem (economically) would be if it was salted away to Switzerland to join that of Nigerian former dictators and help in building the Swiss economy. Bottom line, corruption per se is not as terrible a problem as people think from an economic standpoint. From a moral standpoint, yes corruption is bad and we can cry about it all day as a nation as we have been doing from 1963, as we hope for things to get better.

Meanwhile, I urge the younger generation to be the change they want to see as we build the Kenya of the future, meaning, do business ethically because you can still get ahead in Kenya in the private sector without being corrupt IMHO. This corruption monster will take a while to sort, but we can each play our part to minimize it in our own little spheres wherever we are.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
590 Posts

Here is an interesting article on the economist - about the real estate boom in Kenya - what is funding this boom ?





.....One thing that is not fuelling the activity is a mortgage boom. According to estate agents, just 22,000 home loans exist in the whole of Kenya, and half of these are reckoned to be to bank employees at preferential rates. Loans at market prices are punishingly expensive, carrying interest rates around 15% or higher.

http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21670001-mystery-nairobis-property-boom-find-money?fsrc=scn/fb/te/pe/ed/findthemoney
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
628 Posts
Point taken but guess what, even that money diverted to peoples pockets does not just sit in the bank. It buys property, it invests in industry, it builds the economy. Even if it sat in the bank, the bank uses it to invest in government securities and the government uses the money to build those same same infrastructure projects you speak of :lol:.

The only time it would be a problem (economically) would be if it was salted away to Switzerland to join that of Nigerian former dictators and help in building the Swiss economy. Bottom line, corruption per se is not as terrible a problem as people think from an economic standpoint. From a moral standpoint, yes corruption is bad and we can cry about it all day as a nation as we have been doing from 1963, as we hope for things to get better.

Meanwhile, I urge the younger generation to be the change they want to see as we build the Kenya of the future, meaning, do business ethically because you can still get ahead in Kenya in the private sector without being corrupt IMHO. This corruption monster will take a while to sort, but we can each play our part to minimize it in our own little spheres wherever we are.

When you talk about poverty eradication, corruption is an impediment. When corruption takes place in government there is no equitable distribution of wealth. Instead the rich (corrupt cartels) become richer and the poor more poorer. And the gap between the rich and the poor will take centuries to close.
 

·
#AfricaRising
Joined
·
500 Posts
Discussion Starter #9

Here is an interesting article on the economist - about the real estate boom in Kenya - what is funding this boom ?





.....One thing that is not fuelling the activity is a mortgage boom. According to estate agents, just 22,000 home loans exist in the whole of Kenya, and half of these are reckoned to be to bank employees at preferential rates. Loans at market prices are punishingly expensive, carrying interest rates around 15% or higher.

http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21670001-mystery-nairobis-property-boom-find-money?fsrc=scn/fb/te/pe/ed/findthemoney
Economist magazine loves hit-pieces like these. The interesting thing is the author answers all the questions he or she poses, which makes you wonder why they bother to ask in the first place. Where is the money coming from? savings (since most middle class Kenyans are financially savvy and will not be caught dead borrowing at 15%+!), investment pools (chamas), a bit of it from corruption and from rich Somalis (is it a crime to be Somali or rich?).

As a country we should celebrate and even strive to reduce mortgages further to zero in this high interest rate environment. Economist of course would want us to be like the advanced economies that are collapsing like dominoes in debt because their populations save little to zero while rapidly growing countries like Kenya and China's citizens save 30% and up making them wealthier than their US and Eurozone counterparts!
 

·
#AfricaRising
Joined
·
500 Posts
Discussion Starter #10
When you talk about poverty eradication, corruption is an impediment. When corruption takes place in government there is no equitable distribution of wealth. Instead the rich (corrupt cartels) become richer and the poor more poorer. And the gap between the rich and the poor will take centuries to close.
Absolutely. I agree with you, BUT, what is more important for a developing country in the short term? Equality or growth? USSR tried the forced equality of communism and failed miserably. China was dirt poor up until 1979 when it sacrificed forced equality for free market growth and the rest is history. It has now pulled 400 million and counting out of poverty! Growth is way may important than equality for the least developed economies up until the economy has reached a stage where it is wealthy enough to afford transfer payments a la Norway, the US and similar countries. GDP Growth is the most important metric a developing country should be pursuing if it is serious about putting a serious dent in structural poverty in the long term. When equality remains your overall goal you become what South Africa has become despite being an advanced, resource rich economy; 1% growth, mining and service delivery strikes every single week, massive load shedding, increasing poverty and FDI fleeing away from that country like Ezekiel Kemboi on those last two hurdles!
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
4,136 Posts
Its good that we can learn from how china and ussr grew but i hope and i think it would wise if kenya would take equality and growth seriously,not letting one area behind,i know its like killing two birds with one stone but it can be achieved since it will save Kenya from facing the conséquences that arises from neglecting one of them.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
5,927 Posts
Equality and growth are generally two concepts on two opposite sides of the same coin. The coin here is a question asking how we can all achieve desired levels of advancement.

In the US, these two questions generally represent the thinking behind the two major parties. One believes business success and growth brings advancement to everyone and through that equality is achieved -- when businesses prosper individuals do too, whereas the other promotes equality among individuals and focuses on individual achievement as a better way to getting there, not through businesses but individual-level empowerment.

Equity seems better to me, because achieving equality is a tough call, and that's why the countries which have tried this philosophy abandoned it for example China, former, USSR, and TZ through the Ujamaa Villages.

The reality is that there will always be differences between individuals, intrinsic and otherwise. Isn't it therefore fair to account for these differences? The process of rewarding these differences is what results in inequality because some will end up making way more than others because of their situations or mere luck or just because they work much harder.

Still, those who somehow end up having way more than others should have compassion to care for the less fortunate in the society that we all call home.
 

·
thenairobidude
Joined
·
3,431 Posts
Corruption is everywhere even in the bigger economies like Korea but since the news is always in Korean no one ever gets how bad corruption can be in the country.

Also while the Koreans are super efficient government projects also have delays, just like in Kenya.

Kenya just needs to focus on the current path, keep organising itself and projects and to keep expanding. We cant even have a year when we arent building anything. And road projects have to always come with a sidewalk.

The city kanjo should have sidewalks everywhere and pave the small roads in places like innercore which could look good with paved roads which dont need thick tarmac layers. Upperhill and neighbourhoods outside the CBD need sidewalks
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
628 Posts
I am not against people getting richer. Definitely the cramps of the rich will benefit the poor. What I am against is a situation where government and county officials take the resources meant for development and channel the funds corruptly to their pockets. Because of that we do not have roads. And how will the economy grow without proper infrastructure?
 

·
#AfricaRising
Joined
·
500 Posts
Discussion Starter #15
We can do this!

Kenyans, dear Kenyans! If a country whose doomed (so they thought) future General McArthur captured in 1953 as: "how can a rose grow out of a rubbish heap?!" could become the 12th largest economy in the world, develop a steel, auto and ship building industry from scratch, and get into the semiconductor industry late yet emerged the world leader in it to date, surely we can do the same by 2050!

I think we have the emphasis on education (some say there's too much!) part down right, we are getting the infrastructure part right thanks to our Shanghai brothers. What we now may need is to go 'next level' by playing catch up in the steel/iron ore industry, leveraging our vibrant IT sector to move away from merely producing apps or assembling imported materials to actually creating exportable home grown IT hardware, for example. We have iron ore deposits in Taveta, Coal in so many other places, engineers trained in some of the best schools around the world, as well as something Korea has never had: oil! Why can't we pull a Korea as well by 2050? :colgate:

Warm regards.

 

·
thenairobidude
Joined
·
3,431 Posts
^^
The other thing Korea has done is that all major companies in Korea are Korean owned companies.

And when their construction industry was starting it was small and inefficient but all Korean owned. They then built up capacity.

With Kenya we shouldnt kick out all Kenyan firms in the construction sector but build up capacity.
 

·
#AfricaRising
Joined
·
500 Posts
Discussion Starter #17 (Edited)
Lion Economy Highlights 2015


Note: meat of the speech on the economy starts at around minute 19.15
Highlights:

  • 2.3 million title deeds issued in 3 years in comparison to 5.6 million since independence. In other words it took just 3 years to achieve what all previous governments took to achieve at an approximate average time of 25 years.
  • 40% increase in budget for FPE, 30% increase in budget for Secondary Education
  • HELB rose from 5.5 Billion in 2012/2013 to 7.6 Billion this financial year
  • 2400 new vehicles added to police fleet
  • 40 Huduma Centres built around the country that have served more than 5 million Kenyans
  • From 8000 schools connected to the power grid to 20,450. 1150 remain to be connected, will be done by end of November
  • 2.3 million Kenyans were connected to the power grid in 2013, has increased to 4.1 million. Access to power now 50% from 32%
  • With plans to add 1 million Kenyans to the grid each year, 75% access target projected to be met
  • 600 MW of additional clean energy added to the grid, and for the first time in Kenya's history, the country has a margin of reserve energy in place
  • Social protection coverage has surged from 226,000 citizens to 710,000 citizens.
  • Over 80,000 businesses registered by youth, women and persons with disabilities since 2013, of these over 30,000 have received business totalling ksh 30 billion from government.
  • Fertilizer cost has been reduced from 2,700 ksh to 1,800 kshs as a result of the fertilizer subsidy programme, leading to a boost in production as a result. Has been extended to tea, sugarcane and coffee farmers as well.
  • TV stations have risen to 53 from 14 in 2013
  • Radio stations have risen from 108 to 126. Lots of jobs created as a result
  • Devolution may not be working perfectly but has been implemented
  • 10 hospitals equipped under the hospital equipment lease scheme, 94 more on course to be fully equipped as well.
  • Only 40 dialysis machines in the country in 2013. After the programme is complete, number will increase by an additional 245 dialysis machines
  • 13.6 million mosquito nets distributed have reduced malaria infections to 10% from 30% at outpatient facilities
  • Access to ARVs increased to 850,000 Kenyans from 600,000 people in 2013. Additional 600,000 people targeted, boosting coverage to 90%
  • 80% of Kenyan children now immunized, surpassing WHO standards
  • NHIF insurance cover has increased from 4million families to 5.7million families or 26 million Kenyans that have insurance cover
  • Free maternity programme has increased medical facility births from 44% to 68%.
  • Maternal mortality down from 488 per 100,000 down to 310 per 100,000
  • Child mortality from 72 per 1000 to 52 per 1000.
  • SGR is 55% done. Line extension to Naivasha negotiations completed. Industrial Park in the works.
  • New container terminal in Mombasa will be ready by February
  • JKIA upgrade continues apace
  • Mwatate to Taveta road construction, spoken about for 50 years and never done, finally being implemented
  • NYS enrollment up from 4,000 to 30,000 undergoing vocational training
  • Youth empowerment programme is central to government's agenda and will continue to be expanded to all corners of Kenya,
My favorite quote in the speech :colgate: :

"Less noise more work, let us deliver to our people"
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
400 Posts
Despite the corruption, Kenya is moving forward and gaining momentum. We all know that every country in this world has some form of corruption in its government. Some are just better at hiding it than others. But as long as the progress out-weighs the corruption, then we are heading in the right direction. #KenyaVision2030
 

·
life liver
Joined
·
3,188 Posts
Imagine what transparent, tribalism-free government would do to the economic growth! Kenya could easily grow at 10+% if only the institutions worked as well as they know they should, and it's all down to the culture(s) of Kenyans, something people choose to do, and something that could literally change overnight if everybody got serious about fairness and being blind to tribe, social class, gender, or anything else and just treated each other purely on merits.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,154 Posts
Corruption is so entrenched that there's a fear of missing out. It doesnt help that the media is regularly doing stories of ex-MPs and ex-ministers who "have fallen from grace to grass" and "now use public transport". Any politician or senior civil servant watching such a piece doesnt want to be that kind of example in future so there's a huge incentive to steal as much as possible before leaving office.
 
1 - 20 of 600 Posts
Top