SkyscraperCity banner

581 - 600 of 600 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,494 Posts
I agree. However, we cannot overlook the fact that not every Kenyan can fit in the service or manufacturing sector. Moreover, we need to look at our comparative advantage and so far, we rank among the top in several agricultural products. Just imagine if we restructure our farming techniques especially for those rural farmers. They can produce export-standard products and get even the most illiterate out of poverty.
In the United States only 0.15% are employed in agriculture and they are much more wealthier and food secure.This has moved from over 80% in 1700s.In Europe,before the industrial revolution there were people starving as the are people starving in northern Kenya today.Time to move away from agriculture
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,323 Posts
In the United States only 0.15% are employed in agriculture and they are much more wealthier and food secure.This has moved from over 80% in 1700s.In Europe,before the industrial revolution there were people starving as the are people starving in northern Kenya today.Time to move away from agriculture
:bash::bash: First of, your figures are wrong. Agric direct jobs account to about 1.4% and 11% including related industries, in the US.
In KE have over 50% unemployment and agric still remains part of the big solution. No way we can think of making micro chips if we cannot even grow maize efficiently!
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,494 Posts
:bash::bash: First of, your figures are wrong. Agric direct jobs account to about 1.4% and 11% including related industries, in the US.
In KE have over 50% unemployment and agric still remains part of the big solution. No way we can think of making micro chips if we cannot even grow maize efficiently!
I am talking about direct jobs.Even if it was 1.4% it is still very low.Time to move to large scale mechanized agriculture where more people would be employed in manufacture of the farm machinery where they would earn more money than doing small scale farming
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
295 Posts
Of late Uhuru seems to have stopped caring.
Tea farmers are complaining he has been quiet.

All I hear from him is Tanga tanga stories, drinking escapades etc...

What is preventing Uhuru from forming a visionary team to map up vision 2050.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
10,778 Posts
Of late Uhuru seems to have stopped caring.
Tea farmers are complaining he has been quiet.

All I hear from him is Tanga tanga stories, drinking escapades etc...

What is preventing Uhuru from forming a visionary team to map up vision 2050.
We still have alot pending for vision 2030. Hio ingine ni ya baadaye. We reach 2030 and do an audit..hoping we will be heading towards or have achieved upper middle income status by then.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,494 Posts
We still have alot pending for vision 2030. Hio ingine ni ya baadaye. We reach 2030 and do an audit..hoping we will be heading towards or have achieved upper middle income status by then.
The simple yardstick to measure that is if we are doing 10% p.a growth rate as envisioned in Vision 2030 which we clearly are not.We have a decade to go and if we do not see a great rebound from next year we will fall very short
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
295 Posts
Countries like Kenya should focus on attracting manufacturers.

The biggest problem in Kenya is unemployment

The Government should make it free for all, Have as many investors set up new factories without requiring taxes... and waive as many things as possible.

It is worse to have around 50% of the people loafing on the streets with no jobs...

Make it very easy, and most people will have a job to go to. this would directly impact Wanjiku.

Wanjiku will pay payroll taxes ie new revenue and the productivity will have multiplier effects where more taxes would be collected through VAT.

This would increase government revenues as well as increase the GDP, thus reducing the Debt to GDP Ratio and the revenue to debt ratio %.

This strategy would cost the Government very little but would benefit Kenyans with permanent jobs... Where these factories will be located will sprawl new towns and give people in Nairobi things to do.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
295 Posts
Raila na Uhuru, need to select Matiangi as a compromise candidate of the Next government

Matiangi is like Joseph in Potifahs house, whatever he touches is enhanced.

Matiangi has a holistic Nyanza view and is best placed to drive the Western Agenda
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
293 Posts
Matiangi is a stooge and a dictator. The quality of leadership in this govt is so low that it makes him look like a superstar. He doesn't have the range to be a good president.
Raila na Uhuru, need to select Matiangi as a compromise candidate of the Next government

Matiangi is like Joseph in Potifahs house, whatever he touches is enhanced.

Matiangi has a holistic Nyanza view and is best placed to drive the Western Agenda
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
295 Posts
To fight Poverty we need to enhance education and Technical skills. Here is how.

- Linking TVETS with tradesmen, Jua Kali sector can yield a lot benefits.

- Todays model is that first, a student finishes High school and then goes to a TVETS institution, then gets employed in industry.

- The New model would be Government seeking for young apprentices already in the Jua Kali sector (in fields like Leather, carpentry, mechanical engineering, hair dressing, cooking, Metal works etc etc) since they already have interest in what will be taught in poly-techniques, TVETS would focus in helping them deepen their knowledge and adopt best practices.

- The goal is to mentor them to become employers.

- This model would work well when the young person in industry works (practices) during the day and then supplements their work with an evening TVET session.

- Success would be measured by the student completion and passing a competency test, that would have a core in these three parameters. ethics, the trade skill and an entrepreneurship edge.

- The TVETS would certify these well rounded graduates and link them up with the Government business registration office and other agencies that would help them register businesses.

- TVETS would also provide technical support (similar to those of an agricultural extension officer role) for the former students as they set up their businesses for at least for a period of 6 months.

- That way, the TVETS would become a synergistic incubator for small business and become efficient in skill multiplication.

- The best thing with this approach is that in a few years early successful beneficiaries and advanced practitioners will take on teaching responsibilities in the TVETS enriching everyone's experience.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
295 Posts
Observations 2020

CBK Interest Rates, inflation, unemployment

In the US & the UK, interest rates, are allowed to be lower than inflation rates. The biggest concern for the Central banks is offer full employment. Thus, stimulus is injected to help create employment. Why don't we do the same in Kenya????

In these two economies, when the overall unemployment rate is 14%, the policy makers say that they are in serious recession.
In Kenya the youth unemployment has been 39% this means Kenya has been in a 56 year long depression since independence in 1964.

UK

- Inflation Rate: 1.82%
- Interest Rates: 0.1%
- Youth Unemployment: ~10%

US
- Inflation Rate: 2.0%
- Interest Rates: 0-0.25%
- Youth Unemployment: ~7%

Kenya
- Inflation Rate: 5.31%
- Interest Rates: 7.25%
- Youth Unemployment: ~39%

- The CBK as is today works in the interest of the Banks and of the treasury. To provide stimulus, The CBK should lower its rates to 5.31% that is to be equal to inflation or even lower.

- Even with the great interest margins that CBK is giving banks, the banks are showing good profits but their stock prices will continue to fall, destroying the very wealth of the very people who benefit from profitable banks.

- The CBK should start working for Wanjiku. Entrepreneurs in Kenya are all looking for cheap capital, opportunities in the expanding economy are countless. Banks keep denying people loans because they can lend to the treasury at ~7.3% in T bills. Treasury on the other hand uses the money raised to fund infrastructure and recycle old debts.

- CBK should lower interest rates and restructure the lending market to allow borrowers to be able to refinance loans across institution.

- For instance if I have a KSH 1 million loan with Stanchart at 14% interest rate, 3 years payment period, a plot title held as collateral.

- I should be able to refinance this loan with KCB at 9% interest rate, for 5 years, with my collateral i.e plot Title collateral getting transferred from Stanchart to KCB. This creates an opportunity to restructure loans for Wanjiku and small business owners reducing auctions and making the economy more resilient.

- Economists Mko wapi? chime in your 2 cents

Oil Opportunity

- Oil prices have declined by >50% from a high of USD 60/ Barrel in January 2020 a decline to a Range of (USD 23- USD 29) per barrel in March 2020.

- In 2019, Kenya oil import bill was $2.43 Billion at average price of USD ~60/ barrel

- This year 2020,The oil import bill will be estimated at Q1 at $0.6 Billion but since the prices for subsequent Q2 - Q4 has declined at 50% it may be $0.3 Billion each quarter.

- The oil import bill in December FY20 may be projected at $1.51 Billion a savings to the country of $900 Million Dollars.

- On the other hand Kenya should refrain from exporting its Crude at this low prices.The loss to the carrier will not equate to the $900M savings and some of the savings should be used to increase storage facilities in Changamwe and wait to ship this oil at a later date when the prices correct.

Unless the original consignment have been negotiated and agreed upon $60/ Barrel price. Kenya should not export....

Please let me know what you guys think?????
 

·
Kenyan
Joined
·
435 Posts
On a better note, I've seen some unconfirmed info that Kenya has regained its position as the largest economy in EA in terms of GDP, having overtaken Ethiopia.
Let's look out for facts but that would be great
 

·
Kenyan
Joined
·
435 Posts

Kenya has overtaken Ethiopia to regain its coveted prize as the biggest economy in the Eastern Africa region, new data by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows.

With a projected gross domestic product (GDP) - the monetary value of all goods and services produced in a country - of Sh9.9 trillion in 2019, Kenya’s economy is bigger than that of all the countries in the East and Central Africa.

Moreover, IMF expects Kenya to remain at the pole position in the next four years, with the country’s GDP touching Sh15.8 trillion by 2024.

Ethiopia is the second largest economy with an estimated GDP of Sh9.1 trillion as of 2019, having been overtaken by Kenya in 2017.

Tanzania has a GDP of Sh6.2 trillion while that of Uganda is Sh3.66 trillion.

Rwanda, one of the fastest growing economies in the world, has a GDP of Sh1 trillion, which is just about the size of Nakuru’s economy, according to a survey by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS).

The GDP for Burundi and South Sudan is Sh357 billion and Sh368 billion respectively as at 2019, IMF data shows.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
233 Posts
On a better note, I've seen some unconfirmed info that Kenya has regained its position as the largest economy in EA in terms of GDP, having overtaken Ethiopia.
Let's look out for facts but that would be great
kenya regained its position around 2 years ago in 2018, the economy’s size right now (2020 IMF values) is approximately 105 billion dollars and a GDP per capita of $2110 dollars. Kenya has also unsat Angola to be the 6th largest economy in Africa. Growth this year is projected to be 3.4% revised down from 6.2% because of covid 19
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
295 Posts
This is a story In NTV about Kenya building 125,000 Waterpans


I wonder what took us so long to learn from the colonialists. All the old white farms had Waterpans
All the large estates engaged in commercial farming, even all the Kenyan President family (Kenyatta, Moi, Kibaki) farms all has Waterpans.

This accidental discovery should send the whole Kenya of Kenyan household to have a Farming water source in the farm, whether borehole etc, and where we cannot, the government can provide a common community water source.
This would resolve improve the food security situation forever.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
295 Posts
kenya regained its position around 2 years ago in 2018, the economy’s size right now (2020 IMF values) is approximately 105 billion dollars and a GDP per capita of $2110 dollars. Kenya has also unsat Angola to be the 6th largest economy in Africa. Growth this year is projected to be 3.4% revised down from 6.2% because of covid 19

According to this CIA rank of GDP Ethiopia is 22% bigger than that of Kenya the gap has been widening Ethiopia becoming bigger

According to the same rank Tanzania with a higher GDP growth rate than Kenya will Outrank Kenya before 2022.

The World Bank has very different numbers Any one know why?

 

·
Registered
Joined
·
9,305 Posts

According to this CIA rank of GDP Ethiopia is 22% bigger than that of Kenya the gap has been widening Ethiopia becoming bigger

According to the same rank Tanzania with a higher GDP growth rate than Kenya will Outrank Kenya before 2022.

The World Bank has very different numbers Any one know why?

maybe it’s just inflation difference. They’re about the same in nominal terms. Ethiopia and Kenya that is
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
233 Posts
In PPP terms Ethiopias GDP is larger than Kenya. By correctly about 22 percent. However note that PPP is not used as the actual measure of an economy’s size because PPP is basically the value of a basket of goods that varies in a different country as related to the purchasing power of the country’s currency. Higher inflation and cost of living in Kenya of course would mean $10 would buy you less bread for example in Kenya than Ethiopia. That is why Nominal GDP is usually an official measure of a country’s economy and this is why the IMF and World Bank rank countries in terms of low income, lower middle, higher middle & High income using the nominal GDP per capita. This determines the interest rates of international loans preferential trade etc. Thus by this standard Kenyas economy is the largest in the region. As of the latest 2019/2020 economic year results from both the IMF and The World Bank. At Kenyas economic size of around $109 billion. Tanzania will take a while around half a decade to a decade to overtake Kenya assuming Kenya does not grow economically within that time. Ethiopias nominal GDP was larger than Kenya in 2016 & 2017 and has been growing at over 7% on average compared to Kenyas 5.8% but the size of Ethiopias economy was revised downwards by the IMF and World Bank after they noted Inflated figures provided by the Ethiopian government and currency manipulation and devaluation.

Angola also had its figures revised for similar reasons. This meant that economies like Ghana and Ivory Coast were revealed to be larger than the actually are and Kenya was moved up to be the 6th largest economy in Africa and 3rd largest in Sub-Saharan Africa.


According to this CIA rank of GDP Ethiopia is 22% bigger than that of Kenya the gap has been widening Ethiopia becoming bigger

According to the same rank Tanzania with a higher GDP growth rate than Kenya will Outrank Kenya before 2022.

The World Bank has very different numbers Any one know why?

 

·
Registered
Joined
·
233 Posts
As for the CIA estimates and World bank estimates they are from 2017 and 2018 respectively before a recalculation was done. Several sectors that were not included like technology and small mobile money transactions in Kenya were also included in their recalculation. This as you can imagine meant that a vast amount of trade that was ignored was now included in calculating kenyas economy.
 
581 - 600 of 600 Posts
Top