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What ever you call me, I predict there is no scope for shopping malls and real estate in Kerala in the aftermath of covid19. At least for two years.

Leave alone Kerala. The world's biggest trade, realtor and hospitality hub, Dubai, is under a melt down due to the pandemic coupled with the crash in oil prices. It is predicted almost 50% of Dubai trade will shut shops within the next six months. Dubai is facing a financial melt down.

How can be Kerala which is a poor shadow image of Dubai be otherwise? More over covid has taught Kerala people a good lesson. To be frugal in everything including marriage, shopping and other luxuries. They may not be in a hurry to hit the spending button.

The only thing to be seen is how many NRK business men will survive this crisis.
 

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Trivandrum @ 2020
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What ever you call me, I predict there is no scope for shopping malls and real estate in Kerala in the aftermath of covid19. At least for two years.

Leave alone Kerala. The world's biggest trade, realtor and hospitality hub, Dubai, is under a melt down due to the pandemic coupled with the crash in oil prices. It is predicted almost 50% of Dubai trade will shut shops within the next six months. Dubai is facing a financial melt down.

How can be Kerala which is a poor shadow image of Dubai be otherwise? More over covid has taught Kerala people a good lesson. To be frugal in everything including marriage, shopping and other luxuries. They may not be in a hurry to hit the spending button.

The only thing to be seen is how many NRK business men will survive this crisis.
Dubai has been a real risk taker which has transformed it from a place of no significance
to the one among the most cosmopolitan cities
in the world within a short span of time that too
without much oil wealth for itself.

The current situation is grave but this time too will pass and Dubai will get back to pace as the
world gets back to normal. Dubai is so connected to MENA , Indian subcontinent and
The West that any pace in these economies
will uptick the city .

Before discussing Dubai , lets think of what the impact will be on Kerala and broader Indian economy for next 1-2 years with reduced remittance, no tourism revenue, reduced tax income , redundancies .
 

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Kerala is exactly what I discussed. Mention about Dubai was incidental.

Here is my prediction for Kerala.

If the pandemic recedes by September, it will take another year for Kerala to regain even half of its normalcy. That means not much hope until September 2021.

If there is a second wave of covid19 world wide (if it comes it shall be much severe. But nobody knows much about this virus. The second wave prediction is based on the Spanish flu of 1918 in which 5 crore people perished world over), the world and Kerala will take two more years to recover.

Let us hope and pray nothing of that sort happens.

Incidentally, Dubai is not an isolated island. It's economy depends on real estate and trade. If the world is suffering Dubai also suffers. It is preposterous to say that nothing will happen to Dubai. As if that place is in Mars.
 

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Trivandrum @ 2020
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Incidentally, Dubai is not an isolated island. It's economy depends on real estate and trade. If the world is suffering Dubai also suffers. It is preposterous to say that nothing will happen to Dubai. As if that place is in Mars.
I never said Dubai is not impacted. Being a real
risk taker who believes in investing heavily ahead of demand with the mindset of
‘We build and they will come’ , such place
will see biggest slumpin economic activity when demand contracts heavily with a span of 2-3 months and may recover slowly say for the next 1 year.

However during demand recovery phase , Dubai will see growth recovering at a faster pace compared to other places.
 

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I predict one immediate fall out of corona in Kerala. Increase in frugality of spending. It is already happening. And it is good too.

Now people, especially those working in Middle East, have suddenly realized that they cannot spend through their nose as if there is no tomorrow. The truth has hit them in their face. Now they know it is not sustainable. A reverse migration is looming large over their head.

And covid pandemic has brought in a change in their spending pattern.

Suddenly people started to realize marriages need not be pompous. It can be conducted successfully even with twenty people in attendance. Today ten such marriages happened in Guruvayoor alone.

Suddenly guys are disillusioned with 'food courts' and such other useless stuff. Now it has dawned on them home cooked food are more tasty, healthier and more nutrient than the fast food poisons like 'shavarma', 'kuzhi manthi', burger, pizza etc.

People will now start building less pompous houses, suiting to their needs. Not to show off. Now they know that they cannot even maintain those palatial buildings.

Flats marketed as 'investment', not as a place to live, will totally stop to sell with gullible customers.

People will become more cautious in purchasing luxury items which are unnecessary to them, but purchased out of vanity and imitation of others. This includes clothes and jewellery.

So real estate, food joints, tourism, Saree shops, jewellery outlets, shopping malls an other such flashy things will be adversely affected.

To tell you the truth, my spending has halved during this pandemic. Am I inconvenienced or unhappy? Not at all. I am happier, healthier and in a way wealthier, due to my reduced spending.

Corona. Corona. Corona!
 

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here and there
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Economy is going to crumble world wide. Not just in Kerala. But people will not stop eating. Are they??

Due to economic crisis, sales will get affected. People will lose job, which will give opportunity to surviving industries to hire workers with smaller wage. Farmers will be forced to sell their goods in half prices. Collectively these all will further reduce prices. Economy will shrink. But will never stop. That is how it survives.

People will buy only basic things. Brands will be affected. But Economic depression will force people to look in to cheaper entertainment oportunities. instead of exotic travel etc, they will look in to cheaper alternatives likes cinemas, amusement parks and of course malls.

Many brand shops in the malls will be closed, it will be replaced by local alternatives. Plus gulf returnees will visit malls etc more freqquently than local populations, IMO malls will survive. Not in their original form though.
 

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Of course everything will survive. Human race will survive, so will civilization. Industry will survive, so will agriculture. Trade will survive, so will finance activities. Sports will survive, so will entertainment.

All I said was unrealistic, hyped, non essential things will take a back stage for the next two years and people will park their faith in frugality.
Not because they have suddenly become wise. But because there is less money on their hands. When you have less money you will cut down unnecessary things and concentrate on bare essentials.
 

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I would say that instead of looking at Covid 19 as total disaster, Kerala can use it as a springboard to the next level as far as economy is concerned. The "Gulf remittance economy" has taken a plunge, so the political leaders and citizens should have the foresight to build the next phase. Small business , farming and IT maybe a good start for being self reliant and stabilization in the short term. The onus is on the govt to simplify the licensing procedures and the bureaucrats to not stand in the way of progress. Being Keralites, we have survived and grown immensely elsewhere and there is no reason why we cant do the same in Kerala
 

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Malls are likely to make a comeback soon. the demand for organised retail is bound to increase. spread out organised well stocked hypermarkets are going to be a common sight in Kerala.

Few years back, we just had one multiplex in Kerala at the Oberon Mall. People were skeptical if anyone would pay 120Rs for a moviethat costed just 50 Rs back then. Now we have multiplex quality cinemas in small towns from Chalakudy to Balussery. A Multiplex in a small town is now a normal affair.

Then came Lulu Hypermarket that showed the immense potential for organised Retail. folks like Bismi have opened pretty decent supermarkets across smaller towns of Kerala. A decent AC supermarket in 20,000 sqft is now a normal affair in Kerala.


With Nesto and Lulu opening in Tvm calicut etc, soon, we can see them explore other districts, and soon, big hypermarkets and a small mall will be a regular affair in most small towns. People will consume more FMCG and electronics. There may be a temporary Covid dip, but things will get back on track.

There is no good that will come to anyone from austerity by the public. If nobody spends, nobody earns. The more people spend and consume, the more everybody gains.
 

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There are some parts in Kerala which are not affected by that damn covid at all. For the last two months while we were purchasing our bare requirements from our neighbourhood stores, gentlemen from these 'paradise pockets' were tired of shopping in a Lulu mall. And they are tired of munching 'Kuzhi manthis' and burgers. And they were spending and spending till they drop dead.

Thus arose the wise saying here "the more you spend the more you earn". Seems nobody has taught this toddler that to spend, you must earn first. You cannot spend on the strength of credit or credit cards. It is a sure recipe for ruin.

Those poor people in parts of Kerala who are affected by covid, one piece if advice from this old man. Avoid closed air conditioned spaces outside, especially shopping centres and cinema theatres. It would be the fertile breeding ground for this dangerous virus. Till the pandemic is over depend on your neighbour hood store as far as possible. And be wise and frugal for the time being.

A time will come surely when the pandemic ends. Then you can revel in shopping 'maalam' or any other such places. That is if you still hold your job or if your father is not expatriated from the Middle East.

Good luck to you. Take care.
 

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I have no doubt if a second wave of this pandemic happens, youngsters will be living in a different world that they are not familiar with.

Let us hope and pray such a thing doesn't happen. This is the height of optimism I can hold in the present scenario.
 

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Once used to a hypermarket - everything under one roof - kind of experiance, people will not return to old shops unless it is very necessary. Hypermarkets will be a hit in Kerala.
Isnt online shopping and home delivery the real threat to mall shopping including Groceries lately.....i suppose many of these malls may not survive the covid fallout....
 
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