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Tiger, AirAsiaX, Viva Macau - flashes in the pan??

Are these airlines going to be a legitimate threat to Qantas/Virgin/Jetstar dominance?

Also..

Qatar/Ethihad/Emirates - Will Qantas want to counter the Middle Eastern carriers by offering routes to the M.E?

(I'm hoping since I live in Kuwait.)
 

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Tiger IMO most definitely will not be a flash in the pan. The other two are a little bit more difficult to say.

Also doubt QF will fly to the Middle East any time soon unless they form some sort of partnership with a Middle Eastern carrier for onward connections. While Dubai is still an interesting place to go, I'd say the majority of Australians who fly with them change planes at DXB and head somewhere else, most probably a destination in Europe.
 

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Tiger, AirAsiaX, Viva Macau - flashes in the pan??

Are these airlines going to be a legitimate threat to Qantas/Virgin/Jetstar dominance?

Also..

Qatar/Ethihad/Emirates - Will Qantas want to counter the Middle Eastern carriers by offering routes to the M.E?

(I'm hoping since I live in Kuwait.)
1. Air Asia and Viva Macau should do well in the Aussie market as no one currently flies to Macau and Air Asia's only competition is Malaysian and JQ at the moment. Also Air Asia is expected to bring more people to Australia rather than just steal passengers from other airlines.

2. Tiger Airlines will definitely be a major threat to the current Aussie carriers but in particular Qantas and Virgin Blue. Tiger are to operate out of Tullamarine and none of the destinations they are expected to fly to (for the moment) are flown by JQ from MEL but that will probably change in the future.

3. Qantas will not fly to the M.E. in the near future. They are currently continuing to build up their hub in Singapore and they believe that they can make more money flying through Asia. Australia will eventually be over-serviced by M.E. carriers so it would be basically worthless for QF to fly to Dubai etc.
 

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I truly believe that all three will have a limited life or very limited market in Australia.

If the market truly believed that these new entrants were going to present a valid threat to Virgin Blue or Qantas, market sentiment and the share price of the two incumbents would reflect this.

I still believe that Singapore Airlines will eventually take a stake in Virgin Blue - probably after the demise of Tiger.
 

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I truly believe that all three will have a limited life or very limited market in Australia.

If the market truly believed that these new entrants were going to present a valid threat to Virgin Blue or Qantas, market sentiment and the share price of the two incumbents would reflect this.

I still believe that Singapore Airlines will eventually take a stake in Virgin Blue - probably after the demise of Tiger.
I think they will all do really well. Competition is what is needed and its up to the aussie carries to keep up with the pace. Australia is currently underserviced considering the need for air travel due to distances etc. Internationally there is a major shortage of seats at the moment due to the delayed introduction of the A380, carriers that were relying on the A380 as a backbone to their Australian services are having to use smaller aircraft in the interrim as well as experiencing shortages within their own fleet.
 

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^^ You forgot to remember tiger isn't flying internationally! It's only domestic! I would have to definitely agree with Zach24 that Tiger Aus will not be successful, and honestly i hope it isn't! I think that when tiger joins the domestic market, the one thing you will see is Virgins transformation. I really think that Virgin has to and will get out of being in the middle of being a full service carrier or just another low cost alternative to Qantas. I think that once Virgin finally announce the name of there new Intl airline, they will also announced a new Domestic carrier as well, either being a Low cost carrier and turning Virgin Blue into a full service carrier or the other way around, and forming a new domestic and international airline and have the budget arm, just like Qantas does with Jetstar That's just another twist of the story and what I think will happen, not true at the moment).

The only thing i don't agree with what zach24 said is that I don't think Singapore air will take a stake in DJ, as Toll Holdings already has a very large majority holding of approx 62% and i don't think they will be giving that up without a VERY big price, plus, the rest of the shares are divided between reasonably small investors and the odd institutional investors so it would be hard to get any large stake out of the general public because there are two many small share holders. But that's not ruling out the Singapore doesn't make a bid for the entire company(which is still a possibility and probably a better one than the other options i just mentioned, don't rule it out if tiger fails).
Just my two cents.
rirwi4
 

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I don't see SQ making a bid for DJ any time soon and if they did buy in it would probably through part (or all) of the stake held by Toll. Tiger will be up and running quite quickly. Virgin's transformation (if indeed they have one) will take much longer than what it takes to Tiger to start up.
 

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^^ true, but the virgin transformation will happen, one way or the other. I mean, either it will make the decision, spend the money, and fix the company up into a real competitor, or Qantas and tiger will smash it in the market place because Qantas offers the "true" service for business travelers(having business class, obviously, and also having included in cost meals, etc), and tiger will only be successful if virgin stays in the middle, and doesn't drop it's fares to the point where it is still profitable, but low enough to truly compete with tiger. I really hope Virgin blue can get their act together soon, otherwise they are in serious trouble........
rirwi4
 

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^^ You forgot to remember tiger isn't flying internationally! It's only domestic!
Tiger already flys international from Darwin and Perth, and if you look at their scheduling, they are marketing a whole series of 'combo' flights to a variety of destinations in Asia (via Singapore). Wasn't it mentioned earlier that their international strategy will be to hub Australian flights through Darwin for further destinations in Asia.

It seems to me that their strategy is a sort of hybrid between a hubbed operation and point to point. You book a fare from Darwin to Phuket for instance, which will initially hub through Singapore, yet eventually will fly direct.

I think that those suggesting that Tiger, Air Asia X, Oasis hong kong etc, will fall over will be surprised. This is not simply about an Australian market. Its a threefold strategy:

1. Create an independent network within Australia (and maybe onto NZ)
2. Connect the Australian market to the huge SE Asian market, thus taking advantage of the relatively expensive and limited flights between Oz and SE Asia.
3. Connect into the long haul market to North Asia, the sub continent and Europe.

Australia position is not so much for them to create a huge independent business as to feed it into a larger system. Both these companies have huge financial resources, and any short term heavy discounting will be no problem for them to absorb.
 

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I wonder what will happen with Virgin. Their board is now stacked with Toll executives, which is both good and bad. It's good because Toll in general are exceptionally well managed with a very good track record of getting things done, making money, and boosting the share price. It's bad because Toll are a freight company who probably have little (if any) interest in ferrying passengers around. I therefore wonder how long they will maintain their stake and what they will do while they have it. Apparently Toll management and Virgin incumbents don't get along particuarly well.

I don't know the history of all their executives, but I think it would do well for Virgin to appoint to the board a couple of directors who (a) have airline experience with a top tier international or full service carrier, and (b) who are completely independent of the Virgin Group of companies.

It's just my opinion but if Virgin are serious about making the change from a LCC "fun" or "toy" airline to a serious business and full service airline then they probably need to get a new CEO, etc. Godfrey may have been a good choice at the beginning but I think they will need a "change agent" to really put the spark into any serious proposals to transform themselves.
 

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^^ I'm not really sure to tell you the truth Tyson, but only what I can hope will happen. What I would be sure of is that I can't see DJ getting ride of Godfrey anytime soon, i mean, he just hasn't done anything wrong to get the boot. I still stand by my words and that is that I hope that when DJ announce the name of there new Intl airline, it is the start of a whole new life for DJ, and instead of having basically QF, and a couple of LCC's you will have a true alternative to QF, domestically and Internationally. I also think if DJ eventually get their act together, then they will most probably join star alliance and have some really good allies's for the rest of the world.
rirwi4
 

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^^ I'm not really sure to tell you the truth Tyson, but only what I can hope will happen. What I would be sure of is that I can't see DJ getting ride of Godfrey anytime soon, i mean, he just hasn't done anything wrong to get the boot. I still stand by my words and that is that I hope that when DJ announce the name of there new Intl airline, it is the start of a whole new life for DJ, and instead of having basically QF, and a couple of LCC's you will have a true alternative to QF, domestically and Internationally. I also think if DJ eventually get their act together, then they will most probably join star alliance and have some really good allies's for the rest of the world.
rirwi4
Agree. Star Alliance has been without an Australian carrier since the demise of Ansett. That has been a problem on SA's route map. If they can get DJ on board (and I can't see that happening until DJ moves away from being a LCC), Star Alliance members will start flying on DJ domestically. I can see DJ benefitting enormously from being in Star Alliance.
 

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^^ Hey, that's a first, someone actually agrees with me:lol:.

But seriously, I have heard that DJ is seriously considering making an extremely low cost offshoot if it gets the go ahead by investors. I think when all of this comes together, it will be in one huge announcement! I think DJ's entire future rests on what comes out of the next 6 months or so, as where they are at at the moment won't be able to hold forever.........
rirwi4
 

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^ There was an article in FIN REVIEW during the week.

Godfrey stated:
(1) It will take Virgin less than 3 months to set up the new airline
(2) No new planes will be needed
(3) Will go to board within the next few weeks
(4) They aim to slaughter Tiger and see it only maintaining a very small market share. They refuse to give up market share and expect Qantas and Jetstar to do the same.
 

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This is good example of why I don't like the Virgin management. This plan looks like a knee jerk reaction that will focus management on getting something done fast rather than getting it done properly. Do they really need to add another 'airline' to the stable? Virgin International, Virgin Blue, Virgin Cheap, Virgin Pacific, Virgin Polynesian, is there any more?

What do they think they can do in 3 months? Are they going to reconfigure their aircraft with different layouts? Paint them a different colour? Hire an entire airline worth of staff on AWA's or some other cost cutting employee arrangement? Are the pilots at DJ just going to stand around and watch? Is the management at Tiger just going to stand around and watch?

IMO Virgin can't seem to get their own act together as to what market they are trying to woo. Is this an admission that DJ aren't the low cost carrier like they like to pretend to be? There is no way that this idea is going to allow them to "slaughter" Tiger. Tiger at least have their plans in motion, Virgin hasn't even put it before the board yet.
 

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I think the whole idea is to prevent Tiger getting a foothold in the market, rather than worrying about aircraft liveries.
 

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^^ merge with REX? ummmm, that's defiantly an interesting possibility??? That's what I also think that DJ's is missing(and no, I'm not talking about David Jones, lol), that being a "regional" airline, sorta like what QF have with Qantas link. I always thought that DJ was going to buy REX at some stage(probably 5 or so years down the track, when they at least try and get out of the middle). But now that tiger is coming into the picture, it's a possibility that DJ will do an Ansett and try and buy all the competition to save market share? Hang on, maybe if tiger gets enough market share off DJ then DJ will buy tiger as well? another possibility? all these different options? maybe we should start a new thread on possibility's about what could happen to DJ, you could even throw in what new routes they will operate when the E-jets start arriving(or more to the point, what are DJ's going to do with the spare 737's when the E-jets arrive).
(alternatively we should probably change the name of the thread, hey mods or Mozsmith:)).
soz for the messy reply, lol
rirwi4
 

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I was looking at it from the perspective that because they are both owned by Singaporean investors - pretty sure the same investor (i.e. their government) - its likely that they will just merge them.

Rex is doing great - but Tiger I doubt will make any inroads - and hence a merger.
 

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I think the whole idea is to prevent Tiger getting a foothold in the market, rather than worrying about aircraft liveries.
That's the partly the point. Why start up an entire new airline if it is going to look/feel/act and generallyhave the same image as the existing one? After all that painting their aircraft would be the least of their problems.
 
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