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兩岸直航瘦了港澳 中國態度不再積極

兩岸直航瘦了港澳 中國態度不再積極



江妍慧

第535期

22-Jun-2006

外界一向都認為兩岸直航最大的阻礙是台灣政府,其實是兩岸直航勢必對香港經濟造成相當衝擊,導致中國政府不甚積極,這才是兩岸直航開放時程的關鍵變數。



在「國共經貿論壇」後,兩岸交流傾向開放的氣氛也愈來愈熱絡,近來為了「直航條例」,立院不同黨派立委也展開攻防戰,一動一靜都牽引著期盼兩岸儘速開放直航民眾的神經。然而,外界一向都認為兩岸直航最大的阻礙是台灣政府,但其實近年兩岸間透過香港轉口的貿易往來相當頻繁,間接對香港經濟有一定的支撐力道,兩岸直航勢必對香港經濟造成相當衝擊;在中國尚未想出因應對策之前,對於兩岸直航的實際態度不甚積極,單靠台灣這邊努力推動,兩岸也不見得能順利直航。

兩岸轉口貿易香港扮演要角

十幾年來,兩岸間的關係逐漸由緊張趨向和緩,經濟活動的往來也逐漸頻繁,台商赴中國投資的人數與金額都持續增加,而在無法直接通航下,兩岸之間的貿易往來都是透過香港來轉口,間接也對香港經濟的發展助益不少。

根據陸委會的統計資料,一九八四年台灣對香港的出口金額為二二.二四億美元,其中,轉口至中國的金額約四.二五億美元,占台灣對香港出口總金額將近二成;當年度台灣由香港進口金額為六.二四億元,其中,約兩成是由中國轉口而來。

然而到二○○五年,台灣對香港的出口金額已成長到二一五.六七億美元,其中,轉口至中國的金額已占將近八成,達一七○.五五億美元,由香港進口的部分,總金額已達六五.○四億元,其中由中國轉口而來的部分,也已超過四成。至今年一月,台灣出口經由香港轉口至中國的金額,占台灣出口至香港的總金額已突破八成,由中國經由香港進口的金額比重,也已達四三.六%,顯然兩岸間的轉口貿易已然在香港經濟的發展過程中扮演重要角色。

只是中間據點未創實質收益

在人員部分,商務方面,基於投資中國金額逾一百萬美元者,必須先於第三地設立公司的規定下,過去以來香港一直扮演著台商赴中國投資的中介角色。根據經濟部投審會統計資料,一九九一年至一九九七年赴中國投資的台商,於香港設立公司者約占對中國投資案件的六成,顯示在一九九七年以前,香港一直是台灣廠商進入中國的主要門戶。然而,一九九八年此數字已降低至五成,此後更逐年下降。

至於觀光旅遊,近年國人出國旅遊的目的地(或首站抵達地),都是以去香港的人數最多,在人數逐年攀升下,去年度赴香港旅遊的人次已達二五六萬人次,占總出國人次七七八.一萬人的三二.九%,較上年度增加三七%。根據香港旅遊發展局的統計,台灣旅客抵港人數逐年成長,一九九四年以後台灣更成為外人赴港的最大來源國(占總抵港國際旅客的二成以上),每年在香港消費二十幾億美元;然而,其中有三成以上的旅客都是由香港轉往中國觀光的旅客,在香港並未創造多大的收益,使得抵港旅客每人每日平均消費金額逐年下降,由一九九七年的二四五.九美元,降至去年的一百多美元。

兩岸一旦直航港將喪失光環

過去因為身為轉口港的關鍵地位,讓香港經濟獲得源源不絕的成長養分,一旦兩岸開放直航,香港機場管理局估計,每年若有約二七○萬人次的台灣旅客不再經過香港,僅機場稅之收益已損失港幣逾二億元,更不用說香港的優勢地位將一夕間失去光環,對中國經濟也是損失;中國在評估兩岸直航的利益時,也不得不一併考慮這部分的損失。

之前在全球景氣衰退的影響下,香港的經濟受到衝擊,尤其在一九九七年之後,香港受中國磁吸效應影響,經濟出現崩盤式的衰退,不僅房地產跌幅達五成以上,失業率大幅竄升,更嚴重的是,香港人週休二日假期,往往大排長龍到中國的深圳、羅湖等地渡假消費,甚至置產,這種消費內地化的現象,嚴重打擊了香港的內需產業,使香港百業蕭條,商店紛紛面臨倒閉的命運。

這使得中國不得不用簽訂CEPA(更緊密貿易關係安排),來帶動香港經濟成長。之後中國開放帶來的大量觀光人潮,雖然的確為香港經濟帶來新刺激;然而,觀光利多可以是一時的刺激因素,對觀光資源有限的香港來說,終究不是長遠的方法。

中國當然也清楚這一點,面臨兩岸直航後香港經濟可能面臨逐漸蕭條的局面,目前僅能又宣布開放四個城市的居民可以赴香港自由行,使中國適用自由行的城市增加到三十八個,預料這四個新增的城市,可帶來一三五萬個旅客,再為香港帶進六十億港元旅遊收入;但這仍不足以讓香港經濟長期健康成長,在還為妥善的因應對策而頭痛下,中國對於兩岸直航的態度不甚積極。

影響國內產業政府考慮深遠

台灣許多期盼兩岸直航的民眾,著眼點都是在於旅運時間與成本的節省,尤其是台商企業,直航對於其運輸成本降低的效益顯著,可以提升企業經營及總體資源運用效率。

然而,政府要考慮的則是全面性的影響。除了提升企業經營效率屬於正面效應外,兩岸經濟問題因中國與台灣在制度上的差異、經濟規模的差距,以及中國政策干預等等因素,存在各種失衡現象及模糊地帶,無法用簡單的市場運作法則及一般經濟評估出絕對的有利或有弊。在開放直航及相關的經貿往來後,若不能矯正失衡問題及排除變數,則很可能擴大對國內產業衝擊,加速資金、技術、人才流向中國,並導致經濟成長減緩及失業問題的惡化。

如中國物品進口增加及中國台商產品回銷,可能衝擊國內產業,導致關廠及失業增加,並造成通貨緊縮問題。而台商因此擴大赴中國投資,可能造成資金向中國進一步傾斜,及產業技術及高科技人才流向中國,進而排擠國內投資及減緩產業升級。且隨著人口加速向中國移動,赴中國旅遊、消費乃至購買房地產,可能造成內需減少及房地產價格的下降;長期將導致國內經濟成長減緩及失業問題的持續惡化。

除了經濟影響之外,兩岸直航等於台灣門戶完全對中國洞開,在中國尚未放棄對台武力攻擊、釋出完全善意下,國家安全實堪憂慮。而兩岸人民生活條件與水準仍存在不小的差距,兩岸直接頻繁交流恐對於台灣人民的生活水準造成相當程度的威脅;如之前香港因為緊鄰中國而引發SARS疫情的流行,進而衝擊經濟表現,就是值得台灣戒慎恐懼的前例。

擔心衝擊香港中國不甚積極

當然,政府也並非因此就完全否定兩岸直航,而是盡量努力擴大正面效應,減少負面衝擊。也就是必須保持經濟發展的主體性,利用產業發展的利基,結合跨國企業的力量,加速產業轉型升級。

因為對於中國經濟的磁吸效應及逐漸成為「世界工廠」的趨勢,台灣也無法長期有效採用防堵台商赴中國投資的策略,最後終將接受必須將中國納為產品製造及行銷全球市場的重要據點之一;但台灣經濟核心競爭力在於製造業的基礎、研發創新及運籌管理能力,若能加速產業轉型升級,並在兩岸建立更合於風險考量的產業分工,強化台灣的生產基地,才能提升總體經濟競爭力,確保經濟長期發展的優勢。

過去政府始終堅持爭取時間做努力,不願在準備尚未完備就貿然開放直航;而在努力多時後,政府的態度自然也逐漸傾向開放。但反而是中國,香港經濟可能發生的問題將造成相當程度的困擾,中國政府不甚積極的態度才是兩岸直航開放時程的關鍵變數。
Source : New Taiwan
 

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綠軍人士寫的垃圾。兩岸直航,方便彼此民間交流,方便臺商投資,兩地旅遊,更能使運營成本大大減縮。大陸沒有道理阻止,因爲兩岸直航意味著更多的臺資可能湧入内陸;臺灣更沒有道理阻止,大陸一直是臺灣最大貿易夥伴和最大貿易順差囯,去年貿易順差更佔了GDP兩成,更何況對香港的自由行,臺灣早已眼熱,開放直航,吸引大陸遊客,將對臺灣經濟有不可估量的影響。

至於香港,冒昧地說,香港的經濟一直是發展在中國痛苦之上的,因爲西方對中國經濟的制裁,兩岸的對立,優越的地理條件,香港才有今天的繁榮。直至今日,還有很多港人有著大陸好則香港差的念頭。香港是時候該學習怎麽在競爭中生存了,因爲今日的中國,有成爲香港條件的城市不是少數...
 

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不要胡扯了.轉航方面,香港是佔了兩岸分野的漁利,但說香港的經濟在中國痛苦之上,實是荒謬.沒有香港,廣東的工業搞不上去(廣東的工業七成是港資,十年以前差不多全經香港出口),也沒有今天的深圳(深圳自由特區都是因為靠近香港才會出現).沒有香港,整個中國便沒有一個信得過的資本市場.
中國在變,香港也是.明天哪個中國城市變成今天的香港,香港又有其他角式去擔當了.
 

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Landmark Cross-Straits Deals Signed
By Wu Jiao
14 June 2008
China Daily



Chinese mainland tourists will be able to visit Taiwan via chartered flights on weekends from next month, according to two landmark agreements signed on Friday.

The deals were signed by the mainland's Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS) chairman Chen Yunlin and Taiwan-based Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) chairman Chiang Pin-kun after the semi-official bodies completed their first talks in nearly a decade.

The two sides agreed to start the chartered flights from July 4.

To date, the service has been available only during major Chinese festivals.

Previous media reports suggested the flights would be restricted to mainland and Taiwan travelers. But anyone with valid travel documents will be able to take them, according to the agreement.

Although the 36 flights each weekend - from Friday to Monday - will, for the time being, still be required to fly through Hong Kong airspace, the two sides agreed to start discussing a "direct flight route as soon as possible".

They also agreed to discuss chartered cargo flights and air traffic control coordination.

"Now it is a beginning and the next step will follow," Michael Lo, former chairman of the Taipei Airlines Association, was quoted by Beijing News on Friday.

"We can't expect to reach the final target in one step.

"A good beginning is half the job done."

The other agreement is on mainland tourists' travel arrangements in Taiwan.

In the first batch, 13 mainland provinces and municipalities are included.

"A maximum of 3,000 mainland tourists can travel to Taiwan every day," the agreement states.

The first group of mainland tourists will arrive in Taiwan on July 4.

The two sides also agreed to set up representative offices to handle tourism issues, and pledged to simplify entry and exit procedures and protect mainland tourists' legal rights and safety.

Hu meets Chiang

In his meeting with Taiwan's chief negotiator Chiang Pin-kun on Friday afternoon, Hu Jintao, general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, said the resumption of talks between the ARATS and the SEF showed that the two sides had the wisdom and capacity to overcome existing problems through dialogue.

"As long as the both sides can build mutual trust, shelve differences, seek common ground and create a win-win situation, we will be able to continuously advance our negotiations and score more positive progress," Hu said.

He said the two agreements would contribute to the realization of direct links for mail, trade and transport services across the Straits.

The ARATS and the SEF are authorized semi-official organizations engaged in talks on issues related to cross-Straits exchanges in absence of official links.

Talks were suspended in 1999 after then-Taiwan leader Lee Teng-hui defined cross-Straits ties as a "special state-to-state relationship".

Chiang said he had talked with his mainland counterpart about more topics that might be on the future agenda, including direct shipping and oil and gas exploration in the Taiwan Straits.
 

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Direct cross-strait flights no threat to HK carriers
14 June 2008
South China Morning Post

In the short term, Hong Kong carriers will not feel much impact from the added competition of 18 new chartered flights between the mainland and Taiwan, scheduled to begin next month.

Analysts say Hong Kong airlines could suffer in the future if Taiwan ever replaces the city as the gateway to the mainland, but that would require major policy shifts in Beijing and Taipei.

One crucial factor that constrains Taiwan as a transit hub for mainlanders is that the new flights are technically charters. Though they will be regularly scheduled, Beijing requires mainlanders to enter and leave Taiwan together as a group. Individuals cannot leave the group and travel beyond Taiwan. That means Taiwan cannot serve as a transit hub unless this restriction is lifted.

Another limiting factor is that travellers from the west are unlikely to pass through Taipei to the mainland because flights between Taipei and the west are dominated by Taiwanese carriers. These were not as popular with non-Taiwanese passengers due to concern about the carriers' safety records, a transport analyst said.

At present, there are 19 destinations in Europe and the United States connected to Taipei by Taiwan's China Airlines and Eva Air, including New York, Chicago, Atlanta, Rome and London.

If international carriers could get permission to fly into the mainland via Taiwan then its chances of becoming a gateway would improve, the analyst said.

As for international connections, Taipei has only one-third as many as Hong Kong and with a much less frequency. Taoyuan International Airport connects with about 50 destinations internationally compared with Hong Kong's 150.

The Taiwan routes were among the most profitable for Cathay Pacific and Dragonair, but the impact of a direct link would be minimal because of its restrictions, said Jim Wong, a transport analyst for Nomura Securities. Revenue per passenger per kilometre would drop less than 5 per cent for Cathay, including Dragonair, once the direct link is in place. Meanwhile, the impact on its cargo business would be slightly lower than that in the passenger sector.

Cathay Pacific said the impact remained to be assessed pending further details of the 18 weekend charter flights and the pace of further direct flights in the future. Cathay Pacific and Dragonair operate 141 flights per week to Taipei and Kaohsiung.

A direct link between Taiwan and the mainland creates the potential for European and American carriers to expand their limited foothold in Taiwan. But the airlines do not seem to be jumping at the opportunity yet.

"In the long run it will be possible for international passengers to travel via Taiwan to the mainland," said Gilbert Chow, Hong Kong general manager for Northwest Airlines.

Northwest is one of two American airlines operating in Taipei. It connects passengers from Taipei to Osaka.
 

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Fallout from cross-strait pact now being figured
Hong Kong Standard
Monday, June 16, 2008

Despite healthy passenger volume growth last month, Hong Kong airport could come under pressure with July's launch of direct flights between Taiwan and the mainland, the Airport Authority chief acknowledges.

"The commencement of direct, weekend charter flights across the Taiwan Strait from July will have an impact on the number of passengers transferring through Hong Kong between Taiwan and the mainland in the short to medium term," said authority chief executive Stanley Hui Hon-chung.

The mainland and Taiwan signed a landmark agreement on Friday to launch regular direct flights for the first time since 1949. Weekend charter flights are scheduled for every week starting on July 4.

The first tour groups will start arriving in Taiwan on July 18. Taiwan's mainland tourist arrivals quota will increase from 1,000 to 3,000 per day.

The liberalization of cross-strait tourism will likely add 60 to 80 basis points to Taiwan's GDP growth rate, Goldman Sachs economist Enoch Fung said.

But Hong Kong could lose about HK$300 million in tourist spending per year, said Hong Kong Tourism Board chairman James Tien Pei-chun.

The SAR stood to lose about 1.5 million tourist arrivals if all Taiwanese traveling to the mainland opt for direct flights, he added. And Taiwanese transiting Hong Kong spend an average of HK$200 per visit.

Economists expect Hong Kong's potential loss in tourism receipts could be as much as HK$2.5 billion, or 0.2 percent of GDP, this year, and could balloon to HK$16.6 billion in 2012.
 

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Taiwan Eva Air eyes cooperation with China peers

TAIPEI, June 20 (Reuters) - Eva Airways , Taiwan's second-largest carrier, plans to increase direct flights to China and seek to work with Chinese airlines as cross-Straits business ties improve.

Taiwan and China plan to launch regular flights between the long-time rivals for the first time since 1949. Direct weekend flights will start on July 4.

"We will definitely want to partner other airlines, and everyone agrees there are not enough direct flights to China," said Eva spokesman Nieh Kuo-wei.

Eva said it will initially have 7 direct flights to China each week, from both Taoyuan International Airport and Taipei's Songshan domestic airport, but will not trim the number of flights to Hong Kong.

For decades, flights between Taiwan and China had to make lengthy stop-overs in Hong Kong.

On Friday, Eva signed an agreement with China Eastern Airlines to collaborate on ticket issues and luggage handling. China Eastern also wants to fly direct to Taiwan.

"We may lose money in the beginning for some direct flights, but we're not looking at this development just from a business standpoint," said Cao Jianxiong, China Eastern's general manager. "We hope it will boost Taiwan and China relations and improve economic ties."

Other mainland airlines assigned by regulators to fly direct to Taiwan include China Southern Airlines , Air China , Hainan Airlines and Xiamen Airlines.

China has claimed sovereignty over self-ruled and democratic Taiwan since the Chinese civil war and has pledged to bring the island under its control, by force if necessary.

But new Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou has pledged to boost the economy by improving trade with China.
 

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Cathay Pacific cuts flight fares to vie for more transit passengers
21 June 2008
The China Post

As Macau and Hong Kong served as a stopover for flights to both sides of the Taiwan Strait before, the upcoming weekend direct charter flights may cause Cathay Pacific Airways and other airlines operating flights to both Taiwan and mainland China to suffer drainage of transit passengers, the sources said.

To counter, Cathay Pacific has cut the Hong Kong-Xiamen flight fare to NT$7,150 from NT$8,940 during the summer vacation period, for a cut of NT$1,800. After the reduction, the fare is almost the same as that for direct charter flights.

Meanwhile, Cathay Pacific has also reportedly slashed its ticket fares for flights to Shanghai and Beijing from Hong Kong by over NT$1,000, and the fares for flights to Ningbo, Hangzhou, and Chengdu will also be cut starting from the summer vacation through the end of October.

In addition, passengers joining the five-day free trip to Shanghai operated by Star Travel only have to pay NT$8,999 in flight ticket fare if they fly Cathay Pacific and then transit by Dragon Air.

Huang Sheng-cheng, president of Star Travel, said that such airlines as Macau Airlines, Cathay Pacific Airways and Hong Kong Dragon Airlines (Dragon Air) have offered a discount of at least NT$1,000 on the fares for flights to Guilin, Shanghai and Beijing, which are popular destinations for direct charter flights across the Taiwan Straits on weekends.

Take the five-day Quilin trip for example. The ticket fare charged by Macau Airlines has been sharply cut by NT$4,000 to NT$13,900 from the previous level of NT$17,900.

Huang said that as the number of upcoming direct flights across the Taiwan Strait remains limited, quite a few airlines are still taking a wait-and-see attitude toward whether to reducing their flight ticket prices and will keep their existing prices unchanged till July 15.

Statistics compiled by Hong Kong travel authorities showed that there are around 1.5 million Taiwanese passengers transit at Hong Kong before flying to mainland Chinese cities. After the direct flights take effect, Hong Kong will suffer a revenue decline of around HK$300 million year, based on the average spending of HK$200 per passenger.
 

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Mainland-Taiwan direct flights won't hurt HK air traffic
9 September 2008
China Daily - Hong Kong Edition

Even though there are direct flights between the mainland and Taiwan, it will have little impact on the city's air traffic, the Hong Kong Airport Authority (HKAA) said yesterday.

Daily direct flights from Hong Kong to Taiwan are more frequent than from the mainland, said Stanley Hui, CEO of HKAA.

He was speaking on the speculation that the number of Hong Kong's air passengers will drop substantially after the central authorities announced on Sunday more residents would be able to fly directly to Taiwan soon.

Mainlanders with permits to travel to Taiwan will be able to travel to and back from the island through the islands of Jinmen, Mazu and Penghu, State Council Taiwan Affairs Office said on Sunday.

Residents from nine provinces and municipalities on the mainland have been allowed to visit Taiwan in group tours since July 20 this year.

"In Hong Kong, mainland tourists have more flights to choose from. They are likely to stop by Hong Kong on their way to Taiwan," Hui told reporters after a luncheon yesterday.

However, Cho Fook-tat, an aviation analyst at Taifook Securities, warned the number of passengers from and to Hong Kong will decline by 10 percent to 20 percent once the cross-Strait flight resumes and Hong Kong's tourism industry would earn as much as HK$3 billion less a year than before.

Cho said Hong Kong airport is facing growing competition in the region, and that it should team up with airports on the mainland to channel mainland travelers flying overseas.

"As the airports in both Beijing and Guangzhou have aggressively expanded their size and capacities, and Pearl River Delta is now home to five airports, Hong Kong airport should secure its leading position in the region. Cooperation among airport operators is very necessary for the long-term growth," Cho said.

To maintain Hong Kong's status as Asia's prime air hub, HKAA said it hopes to maximize the two existing runways' capacity to 68 takeoffs and landings per hour in 2015 from current 55 movements.

The airport operator is also launching a feasibility study on the construction of a third runway, which is expected to take two years.

"The construction will be very expensive," said Marvin Cheung, chairman of the airport authority Hong Kong.

"The project also involves additional reclamation from deep waters and many other technical problems," said Hui, adding the budget required is yet to be ascertained.

The robust economic growth on the mainland and the rest of Asia helped achieve an 8 percent jump in traffic last year. Asia-Pacific airline traffic may grow an average of 5.8 percent a year until 2025, according to the Airports Council International.
 

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Top cross-strait negotiator to visit Taiwan for summit talks
11 September 2008
South China Morning Post

Beijing's top cross-strait negotiator, Chen Yunlin , is expected to visit the island by the end of next month to attend the next round of high-level talks, a mainland official said yesterday.

Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman Li Weiyi said authorities on both sides were working on the agenda and agreements to be examined in the next round of summit talks between the mainland-based Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (Arats) and the Taiwanese-based Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF).

"As long as we finish all the tasks in hand, Mr Chen will be able to go to Taiwan," he said. "It will happen before the end of next month."

The summit, an important cross-strait negotiation platform in the absence of formal ties, resumed in Beijing three months ago after a 10-year hiatus.

The talks between Mr Chen and SEF head Chiang Pin-kung resulted in the lifting of decade-old restrictions on regular charter flights across the Taiwan Strait and on mainland tourists visiting the island.

But the two sides said they still needed further work before allowing flights to fly directly across the strait. All chartered flights still need to detour through Hong Kong airspace.

Mr Li said the passenger load of the weekend charter flights had reached an average of 90 per cent.

He said the 114 return weekend flights provided by 11 airlines would not meet demand this month, when many Taiwanese living and working on the mainland are expected to rush home for the Mid-Autumn Festival.

Next month's summit was expected to touch on issues such as the possibility of direct cross-strait flights and on expanding the number of flights, Mr Li said.

Starting last Sunday, a fortnight of special charter flights has been arranged for the festival. Most of the flights from Taiwan will go to Shanghai or Xiamen , in Fujian province .

Mr Li said direct cross-strait sea freight would be one of the issues discussed during the summit. Cross-strait sea transport has been largely restricted except for the area between Fujian's coast and Taiwan's Quemoy, Matsu and Penghu islands.

Mr Li also confirmed that the next round of summit talks between the ruling parties of the two sides - the Communist Party and the Kuomintang - would be held in December. He did not say where.

Mr Chen was quoted by Xinhua as saying on Tuesday that he hoped to deliver two pandas, Tuantuan and Yuanyuan, to Taiwan next month. The pandas, whose abbreviated names together mean reunion, are seen as a goodwill gesture by Beijing to the island. Mainland experts would also inspect the pandas' future home at Taipei Zoo, he added.
 

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Outbound tourism slides but visits to HK grow slightly
19 September 2008
Taipei Times

Although Taiwans outbound tourism dropped by nearly 6 percent in July, the number of Taiwanese visitors to Hong Kong edged up 0.6 percent, a Hong Kong Tourism Board official said on Wednesday.

This showed that visits to the Chinese territory had not yet been affected by the commencement of direct weekend charter flights, Terruce Wang , director of the Hong Kong Tourism Board in Taiwan, said at a press conference. Taiwan is an important source of tourists for Hong Kong. Facing various unfavorable factors this year, such as high oil prices, the economic slowdown and cross-strait direct flights, the Hong Kong government does not dare take them lightly, Wang said.To attract more young people to visit Hong Kong, the board said the territory would host a 38-day Halloween bash from next Friday through Nov. 2. The board has coordinated with five Taiwanese travel agencies and Cathay Pacific Airways to offer attractive deals, with four-day-and-three-night tour packages starting at NT$6,999 per person, Wang said.Separately, Lion Travel Service Co , a major tour operator in Taiwan, said on Wednesday it was working with the Thailand Tourism Division in Taipei to offer tailor-made honeymoon packages to the Southeast Asian country, targeting newlyweds who want to spend their honeymoon overseas for less money. High airline ticket prices and inflationary pressure have seen Lion Travel suffer a customer decline of between 8 percent and 9 percent this year from a year earlier, it said.
 

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Cross-Straits flights a challenge to city tourism
5 November 2008
China Daily - Hong Kong Edition

The local travel industry is anticipating a tough operating environment following the expansion of direct passenger flights between the mainland and Taiwan.

The deal between the two sides was agreed to yesterday. Hong Kong Tourism Board Chairman James Tien said the impact caused by the direct links hasn't been assessed, but he added that the travel industry will need to strengthen measures to attract more Taiwanese visitors.

The board is planning to launch a Hong Kong and Guangdong Christmas tour package in Taiwan, diverting the island's tourists to the city before reaching Guangdong.

Hong Kong Association of Travel Agents Chairman Michael Wu said the direct links will intensify the problems suffered by the tourism sector and related trades, including aviation, hotel and retail, in the financial crisis.

Wu estimated that about 20,000 Taiwanese will be aboard the 108 direct flights to the mainland each week. Currently, 70 percent of those travelers have to stop in Hong Kong before heading to the mainland.

Taiwan residents logged 2.29 million entries into Hong Kong last year, accounting for 8 percent of all recorded visits to the city.

The number of arrivals by Taiwanese travelers from January to August this year stood at 1.56 million, a slight increase of 2.3 percent over the same period last year. About 70 percent of those trips were made by travelers on their way to other destinations. The remaining 30 percent of the entries were those who stayed in Hong Kong overnight and spent an average of HK$5,000 in the city.

"Hong Kong's position as a transit hub is threatened," Wu said. "The consumption industry will be severely affected."

Taiwan Business Association Chairwoman Susie Chiang said she expects some Taiwanese tourists to be attracted to the direct flights to the mainland because they will be cheaper.

"Hong Kong being a transit hub will be affected," she said. "That is inevitable."

But she added that Hong Kong's position as a bridge between Taiwan and the mainland will not be affected because of the SAR's sound legal system and high degree of freedom.

China Airlines struck a more positive note.

Its spokesman pointed out that the number of passengers and flights between Taipei and Hong Kong won't be affected after the launch of weekend direct flights between the mainland and Taiwan province.

He said it is too early to assess the impact caused by the expansion of direct flights.

The spokesman said Hong Kong will maintain its unique position as a prominent city in the Pearl River Delta region and as a transit hub, as the city's airport has connections with many major international cities.

A spokesman for the SAR government said that the impact caused by the expansion of direct links will last for only a short time.

The spokesman said the closer ties between the mainland and Taiwan will enable Hong Kong to strengthen its position as a financial center.
 

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H.K. TOURISM OPERATORS WARY OF NEW TAIWAN-CHINA AIR LINKS

HONG KONG, Nov 6 Asia Pulse - As a new air link pact between Taiwan and China will take effect soon, Hong Kong's tourism sector is concerned about being marginalized amid the changing situation in the Taiwan Strait, the Hong Kong-based Mingpao daily newspaper reported Wednesday.

Citing an executive of the Hong Kong Association of Travel Agents, the newspaper said the local tourism sector fears that it might lose about a million China-bound transit travelers from Taiwan per year -- or two-thirds last year's total number of Taiwanese transit passengers in the former British colony -- with new, more direct flight routes to be opened between Taiwan and China.

The new daily charter flights will make cross-strait travel more convenient, enabling Taiwanese travelers to head for many regions in China without having to detour via Hong Kong, the executive said.

Some Hong Kong tourism operators are worried that a large number of individual Chinese tourists will be attracted to Taiwan instead of Hong Kong, as several important Chinese cities, such as Shenzhen and Tianjin, have been added to the direct cross-strait air service program.

Others contend that Hong Kong should take advantage of the more direct cross-strait flights to promote a special "greater China" tour package featuring Hong Kong, Taiwan and Shenzhen.

Hong Kong Tourism Board (HKTB) Chairman James Tien Pei-chun said the expanded Taiwan-China airlinks will certainly have a negative impact on the willingness of Taiwanese tourists to visit Hong Kong.

In an effort to mitigate the adverse impact, the HKTB is considering an upgrade of the functions of its Taipei office, he noted.

Taiwan and China signed four cooperation accords Tuesday in Taipei, including one on the expansion of the cross-strait weekend charter flights that were launched in early July.

At present, all non-stop cross-strait charters must pass through the Hong Kong Flight Information Region, which adds to the travel time between cities in central and northern China and Taiwan.

Under the new agreement, the 36 non-stop charter flights that have been plying the Taiwan-China route Friday to Monday since July will be increased to 108 non-stop charters per week, with direct flights available every day of the week. The number of destinations in China will also be expanded to 21, up from the existing five.

Apart from Beijing, Shanghai (Pudong) , Guangzhou, Xiamen and Nanjing -- which were included in the first phase of the cross-strait weekend charter program -- the new pact will open services to cities scattered throughout China such as Shenzhen, Chengdu, Chongqing, Hangzhou, Tianjin and Dalian.

In the future, a flight between Taipei and Shanghai will take as little as 81 minutes, while a Taipei-Beijing flight will take 166 minutes -- both marking a reduction of more than one hour in travel time.

In line with the new cross-strait routes, China has also eased its restrictions on travel to Taiwan.

The minimum size of a group tour to Taiwan was lowered from 10 to five travelers and the maximum period of stay in Taiwan was increased from 10 to 15 days -- a measure that many believe will pave the way for greater numbers of individual travelers from China and help create a genuine boom in Taiwan's tourism-related businesses.
 

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HK looks to future - as strait rivals ink historic deal
Hong Kong Standard
Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Taiwan and the mainland yesterday inked four deals that could bring billions of dollars of economic benefit to both sides after almost 60 years of mutual ill- will.

The deals will affect the number of Taiwanese tourists visiting the SAR, Hong Kong Tourism Board chairman James Tien Pei-chun warned.

The government, however, said the impact will only be short term and that Hong Kong can benefit from the strengthened cross-strait relations, which can further consolidate the city as Asia's financial center.

China's top negotiator on Taiwan affairs Chen Yunlin and his Taiwanese counterpart Chiang Pin-kung signed the agreements in Taipei's Grand Hotel.

The two men shook hands as they held copies of the signed agreements bound in silk brocade.

Chiang then presented Chen with a large framed painting with eight Chinese characters that read: "Peace agreement for a win-win situation."

Chen reciprocated with a crystal sculpture of a handshake, which he said symbolized peace and cooperation.

"Further cross-strait economic co- operation is needed under the financial tsunami," Chen said.

"The deals will greatly boost Taiwan's competitiveness," Chiang said.

Under the agreement on aviation, the two sides will triple direct passenger flights to 108 per week and expand services to 21 mainland cities from the current five. Cargo flights will also be introduced, with up to 60 round trips per month.

Both sides agreed to launch a cargo charter-flight service between two mainland terminals - Shanghai Pudong and Guangzhou airports - and Taoyuan and Kaohsiung in Taiwan.

Under the shipping agreement, Taiwan is to open 11 ports while China opens 63 for direct shipping.

Shipping companies from each side will be exempted from business and income tax and are allowed to open liaison offices.

Chiang said direct air links would cut fuel costs for airlines by 40 to 50 percent. Direct cargo links would cut shipping costs by 15 to 30 percent, with journey times shortened by up to 27 hours.

A direct flight from Taipei to Shanghai is only about 80 minutes against two hours and 42 minutes under the current weekend charter flight service because of the Hong Kong flyover route.

The two sides will start providing a direct mail service.

To enhance food safety, both sides will set up a mechanism for exchanging information on problematic products and officials will be authorized to pay visits to work out regulations on food safety mechanisms.
 

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兩岸「大三通」與香港
12 November 2008
經濟日報

兩岸兩會(台北海基會、北京海協會)協商,在萬眾矚目下,已在台北完成空運直航、海運直航、郵政、食品安全等四項協議簽署。對兩岸關係進展而言,前兩項協議較具歷史意義,是所謂兩岸「大三通」的歷史文件,不僅象徵已完全消除現存兩岸經貿交往的最大障礙,也代表兩岸航運近60年始終未能「海空直通」(對飛直航)的問題,已能正式解決。

經初步估計,對兩岸人民及企業而言,兩岸實施「海空直通」,將可省下龐大的時間成本及航運成本,已有專家提出見解,認為每年至少可為台灣節省超過新台幣500億元。事實上,未來兩岸「海空直通」,除可節省直接的運輸成本,對台灣而言,更重要的,乃是其突破很可能被「邊緣化」的經濟戰略意義。

茲以海運業為例,「不繞點」直航每航次可節省數萬美元的成本,以目前每年台灣航商經第三地到中國大陸各港口的航次來看,一年約可省下新台幣20億元的成本,未來開放內陸港口,達成江海聯運,對貨櫃航商以及散裝航商都是「利多」。

但對一向扮演「中轉」的香港而言,卻會帶來一些衝擊,除海運業,以航空客運業為例,依香港國泰航空公司的資料分析,其每年利潤將減少約新台幣24億元,乘客人數減少70萬人次,而經香港到大陸或台灣的旅客會減少10%。

在兩岸完成簽訂「大三通」協議後,已有不少香港的傳媒報導表示對香港的前景感到憂慮,認為香港將無法繼續扮演兩岸「中介」的角色,今後難再從中獲取「中介」的經濟利益。甚至有某大報的社評提出警告,認為「大三通」將對香港經濟出現更大的挑戰,新的政經形勢將推動兩岸開展更密切的各項經貿合作領域(包括金融業在內),香港要避免被「邊緣化」,就必須「從整應對」,切勿「慢三拍」。

筆者認為,這些警告是多餘的顧慮,兩岸「大三通」實施後,通過香港過境的遊客及貨物的確有所減少,但對香港的整體經濟結構層面而言,其損失仍算是小量的額度,若從區域經濟的「連動」發展來看,兩岸「大三通」有利於擴大區域內的各項經貿能量,反而會令香港市場從中受惠、取得益處。茲舉香港金融業為例,相對兩岸市場而言,由於仍具區域競爭優勢,反而可令業界發揮其更大的市場擴增效應。

香港一向是兩岸的「中轉」航運中心,對兩岸三地的空運業而言,依據此次訂立的《兩岸空運直航協議》,最大的利基點在於將每周的固定包機,由目前的36航班擴大為108航班,同時開放航點由五個增加為21個,另外新增同意每月60航次的往返貨運包機,亦有極大的機會改採「截彎取直」模式,不再繞道香港飛航情報區。

此舉看來對香港航空業不利,且因正值當前全球航空業景氣疲弱之際,此次兩岸空運直航的新協議,無疑僅為兩岸的航空業界注入一泉「活水」。對香港而言,其台港「黃金航線」運能,勢必因兩岸「大三通」而被取代,但仍有「轉機」機會。例如台港兩地政府可研擬未來兩地「黃金航線」轉型的配套措施,爭取雙方對等開放「第五航權」,譬如讓台灣航空業者可經營經香港至歐洲的熱門航線,如香港至倫敦;讓香港航空業者可經營台北至北京、上海的熱門航線。如此一來,台港聯手成為雙「中轉」地,香港反而可再從中開創新的商機。

根據花旗銀行的報告,兩岸實施「海空直通」後,估計香港旅遊業一年損失將達新台幣100億元,但這只占2008年香港GDP的0.2%旅遊業收入,該報告認為,針對兩岸「大三通」,港人實在不必「杞人憂天」,擔心香港被「打沉」。

筆者認為,香港依然是台灣的主要海空交通樞紐,兩岸「海空直通」將增加兩岸三地的經貿「連動」,對香港反而有利,香港依然能維持及增強其國際化金融及商貿中心的獨特地位。未來,更應融入兩岸,並共同走向繁榮。

(作者是英國倫敦大學法學博士)
 

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Cargo interests await fallout from Taiwan Strait link plan
1 December 2008
Lloyd's List

SHIPPING lines and air cargo operators in Hong Kong and Macau have taken a wait-and-see attitude to moves by the Chinese and Taiwan governments to establish direct links across the Taiwan Strait, writes Keith Wallis.

Now, however, the stark reality of such a move is hitting home after China and Taiwan signed four agreements on November 4 related to the creation of direct links. The pacts, including the cross-strait air transport and the cross-strait sea transport agreements, will allow Chinese- and Taiwanese-owned aircraft and ships to ply across the strait for the first time since the communists took over China in 1949.

Until now, flights between China and Taiwan have had to route via Hong Kong, Macau or other cities such as Pusan in South Korea. Ships operating services that include calls in China and Taiwan have also had to make an intermediate call at Hong Kong or pass through international waters close to Okinawa rather than call direct.

Such arrangements have provided a rich seam of business for Hong Kong and Macau airlines and their respective airports and ports. Air Macau estimated it gets at least 60% of its business from cross-strait services, while Cathay Pacific Airways and Dragonair acknowledged Hong Kong-Taiwan is one of their most lucrative ‘golden routes’.

While Hong Kong and Macau airlines are likely to lose out, direct links will benefit Chinese and Taiwan carriers such as China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Eva Air and China Airlines.

The likely impact on Hong Kong was outlined last week by Acting Secretary for Transport and Housing Yau Shing-mu.

He said Hong Kong International Airport handled 280,000 tonnes of air freight transhipped between Chinese and Taiwan airports last year, equivalent to 7.4% of the airport’s annual cargo throughput.

Hong Kong port last year handled 604,000 teu of cross-strait transhipment cargo that was destined for Taiwan or China’s Pearl River delta. This was equivalent to 3% of the territory’s total laden container throughput. A further 138,000 teu, or 0.7% of total laden throughput, was transhipment traffic between Taiwan and Chinese ports outside the Pearl River delta.

All this air and ocean freight could be lost. The agreements allow 60 cross-strait charter cargo flights per month between two cities in China and Taipei and Kaohsiung in Taiwan. Both China and Taiwan can add another 15 flights during the peak season in October-November. China will open 63 ports for direct cross-strait services, while Taiwan will open 11 ports.

Mr Yau said that under the ocean agreement, direct links can only be operated by ships owned by Chinese or Taiwanese companies that are flagged in Hong Kong or on open registers.

Taking a brave — some would say over-optimistic — view of this situation, Mr Yau said that while direct links will affect Hong Kong’s role as a transhipment port, they should be “on the whole beneficial to container and bulk cargo shipping operators”.

The links would also have a positive effect on maritime services such as shipping registration and insurance, he said.

But Mr Yau gave no such reassurance for airlines. Instead, he offered what observers called platitudes, saying the government would “continue to provide an enabling environment for the shipping and logistics industries to strengthen their position in the region”.

Hong Kong and Macau airlines expect the worst. While Chinese and Taiwanese airlines get ready to increase services, those of Hong Kong and Macau could scale back cargo services.
 

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兩岸直航機超低價搶客
東方日報
9 December 2008

【東方日報專訊】兩岸海、空直航將於下周一(十五日)正式啟動,其中由深圳直飛台北的首航航班,來回票價僅一千一百元(人民幣•下同),較市價低三百元,反應踴躍。有台商表示雖然深圳直航票價低,但航班較少,相信暫不會大量搶走香港客源。不過,本港旅遊業則坦言,內地飛台北航班票價極具競爭力,且路程及時間縮減,預計經香港前往兩地的商務旅客將損失一半以上。

深圳直飛台北的首航將由深圳航空公司執行,起飛時間為早上七時廿分。深航表示,為紀念首航,深航首航班機往返票價僅為一千一百元,較市價的一千四百元,便宜三百元,首航後票價將恢復正常。

首航機票1100元已售逾半

深航深圳營業部表示,首航的機票現已售出逾五成,乘客全部為台商,而散客和旅行團,則因辦理簽證的時間問題,於十二月份仍未有旅行團可直航台北。而除深航外,南航、華航及長榮亦提供深圳飛台北的航班服務。

深圳台商協會秘書長黃厚生表示,台商對於首航反應踴躍,他認為雖然深圳飛台北的機票較香港便宜,且深圳台商可免去往來香港的舟車之苦。但他指出,由於大陸直飛台灣的需求大,但深圳航班少,相對而言,香港的航班較多,可讓台商靈活選擇,故相信即使兩岸直航通航,亦不會搶去太多香港的台商客源。

香港旅行社協會主席胡兆英指,內地飛台北票價僅一千四百元,即使連燃油附加費,仍較香港飛台北便宜一至兩百元,票價上已具吸引力。再者,現時經香港到內地的台商,一般要轉由海路或陸路前往廣東省;兩岸直飛後,台商不但可省卻船票及車票,路程亦至少節省一個半小時。他預計,兩岸直航後,經香港前往兩地的商務旅客將損失一半以上。

國泰航空回應指,航空業一直競爭大,國泰仍會為乘客提供物超所值的服務,來往香港及台北的航班將維持正常運作。而港龍航空則稱,一直會就市場各方面的發展及其影響作出觀察及研究。長遠而言,兩岸更多客運往來,將令整體市場得以擴展,各方面均可受惠。

海運直航將於下周一啟動

另外,兩岸海運直航亦將於下周一啟動。海峽兩岸航運交流協會理事長胡漢湘昨透露,首航路線以上海及高雄最為熱門。
 

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Chronicle of developments in direct cross-Straits links

BEIJING, Dec. 15 (Xinhua) -- For the first time since 1949, the Chinese mainland and Taiwan had direct air, sea and postal services on Monday.

The move ended the practice that air and sea transport as well as mail between the mainland and Taiwan had to go through a third place, usually Hong Kong or Macao.

It also realized the agreements signed in November by the mainland's Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS) and its Taiwan counterpart, the Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF).

Following are some major events and breakthroughs paving the way for a basic realization of the "three direct links" across the Taiwan Straits over the past three decades:

Jan. 1, 1979 -- The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, or the top legislature, called for an early realization of the three direct cross-Straits links on transport, mail and trade in its "Message to Compatriots in Taiwan."

The mainland authority then said publicly several times that it was ready to hold talks with Taiwan to prepare for the three direct links.

The mainland also launched cross-Straits mail and telephone services during 1979. After 1979, the mainland allowed Taiwan products to enter at lower tax rates or tax-exempt.

July, 1988 -- The State Council, or cabinet, promulgated regulations encouraging Taiwan compatriots to invest on the mainland.

1989 - Mail between the mainland and Taiwan went through Hong Kong. Taiwan also opened telephone and telegraph services via a third place.

April, 1993 -- Postal departments across the Straits formally launched joint registered mail services, in line with the protocol signed between the ARATS and the SEF.

March, 1994 -- The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress passed the law on the protection of Taiwan compatriots' investment on the mainland.

1996 -- The mainland's China Telecom and Taiwan's Chunghwa Telecom established direct telecommunications services across the Straits.

April, 1997 -- Experimental direct shipping was launched between the mainland's Fuzhou and Xiamen and Taiwan's southern city, Kaohsiung.

March, 1998 -- Cross-Straits regular container shipping began and cargo ships went across the Straits through a third place without transshipment.

December, 1999 -- The State Council drew up detailed rules for the law on the protection of Taiwan compatriots' investment on the mainland.

Early 2001 -- Cargo and passenger shipping services were launched between Taiwan's ports of Kinmen and Matsu and the coast of the mainland's Fujian Province.

Spring Festival, 2003 -- To let Taiwan businessmen living on the mainland enjoy the Spring Festival at home, the mainland allowed 16 charter flights by six Taiwan airlines to land in Shanghai to fly them home and back to Shanghai, from Taipei and Kaohsiung via Hong Kong or Macao. It was the first regular landing at a mainland airport for Taiwan airlines in more than 50 years.

2005 -- Both mainland and Taiwan airlines operated Spring Festival charter flights together for the first time. Flights did not need to land in Hong Kong or Macao but had to fly over the Hong Kong Flight Information Region.

Early 2006 -- The two sides decided to expand Spring Festival charter flights to other traditional Chinese festivals such as the mid-autumn, tomb-sweeping and dragon-boat festivals.

June, 2008 -- The ARATS and the SEF signed Minutes of Talks in Beijing, agreeing to launch cross-Straits weekend charter flights on July 4.

Nov. 4, 2008 --The ARATS and the SEF signed in Taipei protocols on direct shipping, air transport and postal services, which allowed regular civilian planes and ships to directly cross the Taiwan Straits.

Dec. 15, 2008 -- Direct shipping, air transport and postal services were formally launched.
 

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兩岸大三通 香港被架空
16/12/2008
東方日報



台 海 大 三 通 昨 日 正 式 啟 動 , 掀 開 兩 岸 交 往 的 歷 史 新 一 頁 , 但 大 三 通 卻 令 香 港 一 直 扮演 的 兩 岸 中 介 角 色 逐 漸 褪 色 。 在 兩 岸 海 、 空 運 截 彎 取 直 、 包 機 常 態 化 和 直 接 通 郵 下, 香 港 不 但 旅 遊 業 和 物 流 受 到 衝 擊 , 金 融 業 也 面 對 嚴 重 挑 戰 。 有 台 商 指 出 , 大 三 通後 下 一 步 是 兩 岸 金 融 合 作 , 隨 兩 岸 開 放 銀 行 互 設 分 行 , 台 商 將 不 再 需 要 香 港 作 為 資 金 的 中 轉 站 。 台 灣 金 融 界 人 士估 計 , 兩 岸 大 三 通 和 金 融 合 作 , 將 使 香 港 每 年 損 失 三 百 多 億 元 港 幣 。

平 均 每 日 七 班 正 常 往 返 班 機
兩 岸 包 機 常 態 化 後 , 大 陸 航 點 由 原 來 的五 個 增 加 到 二 十 一 個 , 台 灣 航 點 增 加 到 八 個 , 平 均 每 日 七 個 往 返 航 班 , 變 相 成 為 常態 班 機 。 另 外 , 海 協 、 海 基 兩 會 還 將 在 半 年 內 完 成 兩 岸 定 期 航 班 的 協 商 , 允 許 航 機腹 載 其 他 貨 物 , 從 而 實 現 真 正 的 空 運 直 航 。

繼 海 空 運 、 及 郵 政 直 通 之 後 , 上 月 舉 行 的 二 次 陳 江 會 已 確 定 明 年 上 半 年 , 將 簽 訂 兩岸 金 融 合 作 監 理 備 忘 錄 , 兩 岸 銀 行 可 互 設 分 行 , 讓 資 金 直 接 進 出 而 不 必 中 轉 香 港 。深 圳 台 商 協 會 常 務 副 會 長 葉 俊 暉 表 示 , 未 來 台 資 銀 行 登 陸 後 , 台 商 會 逐 漸 減 少 對 香港 金 融 業 的 依 賴 度 , 不 排 除 將 存 放 於 香 港 銀 行 的 資 金 轉 移 到 內 地 台 資 銀 行 。

據 台 灣 銀 行 業 者 指 出 , 兩 岸 大 三 通 及 金 融 合 作 , 在 大 陸 台 商 的 資 金 不 必 中 轉 第 三 地, 將 對 香 港 經 濟 造 成 很 大 的 衝 擊 , 包 括 每 年 減 少 四 百 多 萬 中 轉 人 次 的 商 機 流 失 , 以及 兩 岸 經 過 香 港 中 轉 的 二 十 億 美 元 資 金 ( 約 一 百 六 十 億 港 元 ) , 台 灣 金 融 界 人 士 估計 可 達 三 百 多 億 港 元 。

台 灣 銀 行 業 指 出 , 馬 英 九 早 前 宣 布 兩 岸 三 通 開 放 後 , 在 六 十 七 家 到 香 港 上 市 的 台 商中 , 已 有 十 七 家 準 備 回 台 , 其 中 像 旺 旺 集 團 就 已 回 流 了 三 十 五 億 元 新 台 幣 ( 約 八 億二 千 萬 港 元 ) 。

研 究 員 指 台 灣 銀 行 登 陸 在 望
中 國 社 會 科 學 院 台 灣 研 究 所 研 究 員 王 建民 表 示 , 金 融 合 作 將 是 明 年 兩 岸 兩 會 的 重 要 討 論 議 題 , 台 灣 的 銀 行 未 來 有 望 在 大 陸開 設 分 行 , 資 金 流 通 不 用 再 經 香 港 , 對 香 港 會 產 生 一 定 影 響 。 他 認 為 , 大 陸 開 放 台灣 銀 行 的 步 伐 不 會 過 快 , 預 料 香 港 在 融 資 、 投 資 等 方 面 , 短 期 內 將 有 百 分 之 五 的 損失 。

豐 銀 行 執 行 董 事 王 冬 勝 稱 , 兩 岸 大 三 通 後 , 部 分 客 戶 毋 須 再 取 道 香 港 往 來 兩 岸 難 免會 帶 來 短 暫 性 問 題 , 然 而 內 地 與 台 灣 加 強 合 作 , 市 場 及 貿 易 額 增 大 , 可 為 提 供 金 融服 務 的 銀 行 業 帶 來 更 多 商 機 。 渣 打 香 港 亞 洲 區 經 濟 師 黃 國 璋 指 , 若 兩 岸 金 融 業 三 通後 , 可 增 加 區 內 資 產 流 動 性 , 即 使 內 地 的 一 線 城 市 亦 未 能 追 上 , 金 融 中 心 的 地 位 不易 受 威 脅 。

大 陸 廠 房 直 接 抵 押 台 資 銀 行
台 資 華 南 銀 行 香 港 分 行 總 經 理 劉 聰 隆 表示 , 一 旦 兩 岸 金 融 互 通 後 , 台 商 可 以 將 大 陸 廠 房 、 設 備 直 接 向 台 資 銀 行 抵 押 , 以 取得 周 轉 資 金 , 對 香 港 台 資 銀 行 會 有 輕 微 影 響 。 但 因 大 陸 仍 有 外 匯 管 制 , 相 信 台 商 仍會 以 港 作 為 資 金 運 用 中 心 。

另 據 澳 門 民 航 局 表 示 , 兩 岸 大 三 通 後 澳 門 航 空 業 將 大 受 影 響 , 預 計 最 多 每 年 將 流 失一 百 萬 台 灣 旅 客 。 當 局 將 通 過 減 免 收 費 吸 引 海 外 航 空 公 司 開 澳 門 航 線 , 應 對 三 通 衝擊 。
 
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