^^ :lol: At first, I thought you wanted to date him! :lol::lol: :lol:I have to agree with EXPLARATUM. I live in Kendall and it is a mother to live here.
I want to ask you something, If you are single..
Is it cheaper to live near Downtown Miami, Miami Beach (urban area) or in a suburb?
Dave, this was Peter Zalewski's research study sourced in the Herald, not mine.On the McCabe front, I love how they spent months of research (i wonder who they charged it to?) to come up with their number 22,000 for the number of units actually constructed? I could have could have come up with that number in less than an hour. Its all available in City documents, easily searched. Maybe I'm in the wrong business...
(and yes Roark, you can post your "I told you so" when you were posting a couple of years ago that McCabe was drastically overestimating the number of units getting built.)
Read the news articles. The choice not to put together a fund was made two years ago. We are consulting investment banks, private equity firms, and hedge funds on acquisitions of bonds, notes, and assets. Deals are and will be done discreetly and privately.RE Expert:
1. I don't know either you or Roark, but both of you can be accused of having an agenda to push... Weren't you trying to put together a vulture fund (for which you have yet to find one suitable investment after >2 years)?[/url]
Speculators, still owned/unsold by builders, and REO. Some are snowbird nests. Funny how those units sat dark during season, isn't it?RE Expert:
2. Your number of 80% speculators clearly cannot be proven at this point, and appears to be likely untrue. We all know that Miami has always been a very large second home market... would you classify the thousands of prime condos on South Beach sitting dark most of the year as being controlled by speculators/non-end users? Actually, the new downtown buildings seem to have more lights on than in the SoFi neighborhood[/url]
3. You keep forgetting that the dynamics have completely changed. It may seem like a huge amount suddenly being built, but you have to remember that there used to be thousands of units built every year in the suburbs... since land has dried up, the only place to go is up. In addition, the area was very under built, and has become much more desirable as crime has dried up, retail shops open up etc.[/url]
4. The fact that you are constantly being quoted in news publications means absolutely nothing... we all know what idiots reporters can be, particularly in South Florida.]
Prove what you think has been absorbed. Give hard data and quote your information sources. Let's see substantiation of what you think you know. My research staff and I investigate the market daily. We have the numbers. You are wrong, but I'd love to see you back up your claim on this website. Prove it!RE Expert:
You must admit that what has happened in the past few years has been quite impressive. In 40 years from 1963-2003, only 11K units were built downtown, and suddenly 22k built in just the past 5 years (not to mention the thousands throughout the rest of Dade county). The fact that so much of that has been absorbed in such a short time shows that it will not be much longer until the rest will be absorbed, even if there is still some excess inventory for a few years.
I will counter any and all real estate sales people that attack me first, and bring their personal involvement and greed to view and be questioned. Tomlinson, like old Roark here, is another unhappy sales person and wants to blame me and the media, while he is an innocent. BS!RE Expert:
I wish you luck on your fund, but so far it seems that there really is not much out there... unless you want to buy in a toxic wasteland like Biscayne Landing, or in other undesirable areas. It actually appears that you are getting desperate, based on your attacking Kevin Tomlinson's post detailing how pending sales are way up in Miami in 2008 compared to last year:
Mr. McCabe: With all due respect, whether you actually have a fund, or are simply advising other funds, you clearly are a vulture with a vested interest in this market.]
Your linking to a Miami Herald article about real estate scammers means very little. Are you trying to say that the area is not much more desirable than it was five or ten years ago? I am afraid you might be a bit out of touch up in Deerfield, it seems that you don't have a very good grasp of the area and its history.
As for whether or not journalists are idiots, I think most would agree that they are at the least very sloppy. If a reporter is trying to write a gloom and doom article, and wants a quote from a supposed analyst, there really is only one man to turn to, and that is you. Putting aside your qualifications as an analyst, the fact that they turn to you shows how lazy they are. Its like calling the hedge-fund manager who is short XYZ stock, and asking his opinion on the stock.
No one knows precisely how much inventory has actually been absorbed, but clearly quite a good chunk already has been. A few weeks ago, the number from Marina Blue were posted, where just in the first few months of closing most of the building had already sold, even in the current market. If 11k units were built in the 40 years from 1963-2003, that implies a rate of <300 units per year. If just half of the 22k built in the past 5 has been absorbed, that would be >2K per year, quite an increase but not unimaginable. Even you would agree that any excess inventory is not liable to last for more than a few years. Look at the Dade population numbers, look at the dearth of SF home construction due to lack of land, and the concept will quickly crystallize in your head.
All in all, I read panic from what you have posted. After 3 years of the market crashing, you have only managed to be involved in two small vulture investments on the west coast according to the New Times. Now, all the numbers seem to be showing the market turning, pending sales up over 40%, prices stabilizing, you must be fearing that your window of opportunity is quickly closing. Are you surprised that Roark or Tomlinson react the way they do, when you attack them and their trying to earn a living? I am reminded of this scene: