SkyscraperCity banner

121 - 140 of 991 Posts

·
Banned
Joined
·
1,774 Posts
I have to agree with EXPLARATUM. I live in Kendall and it is a mother to live here.

I want to ask you something, If you are single..

Is it cheaper to live near Downtown Miami, Miami Beach (urban area) or in a suburb?
 

·
One Brickell CityCentre
Joined
·
13,120 Posts
I have to agree with EXPLARATUM. I live in Kendall and it is a mother to live here.

I want to ask you something, If you are single..

Is it cheaper to live near Downtown Miami, Miami Beach (urban area) or in a suburb?
^^ :lol: At first, I thought you wanted to date him! :lol::lol: :lol:
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
26 Posts
On the McCabe front, I love how they spent months of research (i wonder who they charged it to?) to come up with their number 22,000 for the number of units actually constructed? I could have could have come up with that number in less than an hour. Its all available in City documents, easily searched. Maybe I'm in the wrong business...

(and yes Roark, you can post your "I told you so" when you were posting a couple of years ago that McCabe was drastically overestimating the number of units getting built.)

http://www.miamiherald.com/459/story/576196.html
Dave, this was Peter Zalewski's research study sourced in the Herald, not mine.

I was quoted in 2004-05-06-07 that 25,000 condos in Miami would get built. I sourced the Miami DDA reports, issued monthly. The report reflected 25K under construction, 25K permitted, and 50K applied for permits and were in due diligence in 2004.

My published quotes were that the 25K under way would get built, the 25K permitted might see a few of the projects come to completion, and the 50K would never get financed.

Again, I've been consistent, and accurate, can back up what I say with actual reports and print articles and television interviews. Not heresay and distortion of others comments, as Roark does.

When you wonder out loud on this website why so many reporters (from local newspapers to the WSJ, NYT, Fortune, Forbes, CNBC, CNN,. PBS, and every news publication between here and Shanghai ) continually and consistently quote me as a renowned expert, the reason is simple. It's true, proven, and well documented.

Perhaps you should read things twice to grasp the content of the material before inserting your foot in your mouth.

And as I told Roark, offer factual substantiation to support your opinions, or be singled out and recognized for doofus comments.
 

·
Contents Under Pressure
Joined
·
9,620 Posts
Frankly, I think both of you have personal vendettas and vested interests that detract from this site. This is way too much "he said/ she said" juvenile nonsense and who but an absolute MORON would seek "expert" RE advice on a freakin' skyscraper website?

Please take it somewhere else. Nothing against either of you personally (how can I be against people who only exist in cyberspace?) but this really isn't the place for such personalized and increasingly hostile mud-slinging. Neither of you is scoring points in the credibility department, imo.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
26 Posts
RE Expert:

1. I don't know either you or Roark, but both of you can be accused of having an agenda to push... Weren't you trying to put together a vulture fund (for which you have yet to find one suitable investment after >2 years)?[/url]
Read the news articles. The choice not to put together a fund was made two years ago. We are consulting investment banks, private equity firms, and hedge funds on acquisitions of bonds, notes, and assets. Deals are and will be done discreetly and privately.

RE Expert:

2. Your number of 80% speculators clearly cannot be proven at this point, and appears to be likely untrue. We all know that Miami has always been a very large second home market... would you classify the thousands of prime condos on South Beach sitting dark most of the year as being controlled by speculators/non-end users? Actually, the new downtown buildings seem to have more lights on than in the SoFi neighborhood[/url]
Speculators, still owned/unsold by builders, and REO. Some are snowbird nests. Funny how those units sat dark during season, isn't it?

RE Expert:

3. You keep forgetting that the dynamics have completely changed. It may seem like a huge amount suddenly being built, but you have to remember that there used to be thousands of units built every year in the suburbs... since land has dried up, the only place to go is up. In addition, the area was very under built, and has become much more desirable as crime has dried up, retail shops open up etc.[/url]
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/miami_dade/east/story/575458.html

RE Expert:

4. The fact that you are constantly being quoted in news publications means absolutely nothing... we all know what idiots reporters can be, particularly in South Florida.]
http://www.google.com/search?q="Jac...-us&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&startIndex=&startPage=1
http://www.topix.net/search/article?q="Jack+McCabe"

Surely, you don't imply that all these journalists are idiots? Who in the hell are you and what accomplishments have you made that gives you such arrogance?

RE Expert:

You must admit that what has happened in the past few years has been quite impressive. In 40 years from 1963-2003, only 11K units were built downtown, and suddenly 22k built in just the past 5 years (not to mention the thousands throughout the rest of Dade county). The fact that so much of that has been absorbed in such a short time shows that it will not be much longer until the rest will be absorbed, even if there is still some excess inventory for a few years.
Prove what you think has been absorbed. Give hard data and quote your information sources. Let's see substantiation of what you think you know. My research staff and I investigate the market daily. We have the numbers. You are wrong, but I'd love to see you back up your claim on this website. Prove it!

RE Expert:

I wish you luck on your fund, but so far it seems that there really is not much out there... unless you want to buy in a toxic wasteland like Biscayne Landing, or in other undesirable areas. It actually appears that you are getting desperate, based on your attacking Kevin Tomlinson's post detailing how pending sales are way up in Miami in 2008 compared to last year:
http://www.southbeachrealestateblog...al-estate-are-buyers-rounding-the-fear-curve/
I will counter any and all real estate sales people that attack me first, and bring their personal involvement and greed to view and be questioned. Tomlinson, like old Roark here, is another unhappy sales person and wants to blame me and the media, while he is an innocent. BS!
I suggest you re-read Tomlinson's post and graph. Compare how he chopped off my quotes to what was included in the Herald article. He purposely deleted most of it in an attempt to attack a portion.
In the graph (Trendix) in his post, he only shows current sales and pending sales for Miami Beach. What he hides and doesn't show is that there are 3,890 existing condos for sale in Miami Beach (excluding the new ones) and 85 average monthly closings in 2008, a 45.75 month supply. That's almost 4 years of existing supply. Ever consider that a growing portion of these sales are foreclosures, auctions, and short sales? something to brag about?
Check out www.ewm.com Click on the Facts and Trends tab. Pull up Miami Beach reports. Data from the FAR, on the real estate sales group website Tomlinson works for.
Obviously, you are easily deceived and see only what suits you.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
26 Posts
Read the previous posts I've made here again. Learn what the actual numbers are. Yours are wrong and rosy.
Read the article AND all the comments, if you are interested in learning what is going on. Who are you, by the way? Anyone, or just another vested interest in seeing things in boom mode again that finds power in anonymity?
The Herald has won many investigative awards and overrall has done a pretty good job of covering both sides of the real estate boom/bust with a number of different experts that have varying perspectives, myself included. You seem to have the perception that I am the only one they quote and they just sit on their thumbs all day until it is time to call me. Obviously, your misguided perception come from a very narrow viewpoint, as must your opinions.
An investigative piece coming out in the near future is going to rock the world of a number of these vested interests in Miami.
Check out Lucas Lechuga's http://www.miamicondoinvestments.com/ or Peter Zalewski's http://www.condovultures.com/ website if you want to learn more about how much inventory has been absorbed in closings between developers and initial buyers. Check the MLS and pocket listings held on resales in different buildings re-sale offices of speculative units. Count the freaking foreclosures, auction sales, and short sales. It's more plentiful than you obviously know. Further, read the NAR's recent vacancy study that shows Miami with the most vacant condos of anywhere in the US. And on and on. Maybe if you are sitting on some condos or make your living selling/financing/flipping them you'll get it, but probably not.

I've addressed the majority of your concerns and criticism's, but won't reply to your last paragraph.....except to say, it reflects your ignorance and out of line ego. I "sense" you become a bigger, more powerful man behind the keyboard.

You "sense" panic? Thanks for the chuckle.

Re-read my posts. I will defend our data and my analysis, especially when the comments have been posted by what may be questionable real estate sales people. I will question what their own motivations and hidden agenda are. Live with it.

Mr. McCabe: With all due respect, whether you actually have a fund, or are simply advising other funds, you clearly are a vulture with a vested interest in this market.]

Your linking to a Miami Herald article about real estate scammers means very little. Are you trying to say that the area is not much more desirable than it was five or ten years ago? I am afraid you might be a bit out of touch up in Deerfield, it seems that you don't have a very good grasp of the area and its history.

As for whether or not journalists are idiots, I think most would agree that they are at the least very sloppy. If a reporter is trying to write a gloom and doom article, and wants a quote from a supposed analyst, there really is only one man to turn to, and that is you. Putting aside your qualifications as an analyst, the fact that they turn to you shows how lazy they are. Its like calling the hedge-fund manager who is short XYZ stock, and asking his opinion on the stock.

No one knows precisely how much inventory has actually been absorbed, but clearly quite a good chunk already has been. A few weeks ago, the number from Marina Blue were posted, where just in the first few months of closing most of the building had already sold, even in the current market. If 11k units were built in the 40 years from 1963-2003, that implies a rate of <300 units per year. If just half of the 22k built in the past 5 has been absorbed, that would be >2K per year, quite an increase but not unimaginable. Even you would agree that any excess inventory is not liable to last for more than a few years. Look at the Dade population numbers, look at the dearth of SF home construction due to lack of land, and the concept will quickly crystallize in your head.

All in all, I read panic from what you have posted. After 3 years of the market crashing, you have only managed to be involved in two small vulture investments on the west coast according to the New Times. Now, all the numbers seem to be showing the market turning, pending sales up over 40%, prices stabilizing, you must be fearing that your window of opportunity is quickly closing. Are you surprised that Roark or Tomlinson react the way they do, when you attack them and their trying to earn a living? I am reminded of this scene:
 
121 - 140 of 991 Posts
Top