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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
That question was put to a roundtable of bigwigs recently. You can read about it on www.miamitodaynews.com click 'My Viewpoint'.

The panelists, overall, seemed pretty upbeat. Some suggested that the usual rules of boom and bust may not apply to Miami.

Interesting read.
 

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Dale the market is simply reacting to a pent up demand....one that has been quite obvious for a while now. The lack of land as well as affordable housing is what is pushing the current boom.
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
Bob, among the reasons given for why the usual rules don't apply are the fact that Miami has become a global, capital magnet. And also implied, as I recall, was the trend-busting aspect of the current boom, wherein record numbers want to live in urban environments. Sort of a reverse suburban flight.
 

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Discussion Starter · #4 ·
Also loved Johnny Winton's comment, where he basically said, 'Build them all, and if the bubble breaks, there's you affordable housing.' :cheers:
 

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miami's oil will run out sooner or later. then they will no longer be able to build all these condos because its obvious that these condos are being paid for by miami's oil. without oil, miami is nothing and when the bubble bursts there will be only empty condos left.
 

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^ that is quite a simplistic assertion.
The entire state is in a boom literally as far as development is concerned.

luv2bebrown you question Miami but not Dubai?
 

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oil???????????
 

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miami oil?

what a joke....

miami's condo market has always been 50% foriegn investment and 50% local....

A-currently the us dollar is weak and the interest rates are low so what has happened is that alot of people who couldnt afford homes in the past can afford to buy them now
B-and the foriegners whom bought timeshares or vacationed in miami are now buying property here.
C-then add the baby boomers in nyc which are retiring by 2010 and you get a whole other crowd of buyers.
D-then toss in the californians who are getting more home for thier money these are the same californians that are moving into places like arizona and las vegas and that makes up your another group of investors...

so before we had local residents and foriegners buying property

now we have

01-new transplants moving to miami for work (construction based)
02-local residents with money,
03-local residents that couldnt afford property before,
04-foriegners with money,
05-foriegners that couldnt afford property before,
06-newyorkers, (babyboomers)
07-californians, (bang 4 your buck)
08-and last but not least retiring parents looking to scale down and get out of thier big houses to something that requires less maintanance....
09-last add scripps or any other biotech industry and you will get a new middle class relocating


9 different buyer groups where there was only 2 groups before...

also throw in the fact that we are running out of land....and thats why theres more vertical construction....

when will the boom end or slow down....i say 2015-2020

by then much of miami will have been transformed and alot more of our construction will be located in central florida and parts of broward and westpalm beach.

miami will most likely be looking to add stadiums and look forward to hosting the olympics around this timeline. we will have a second baseball team, a new hockey team and talks about a second football and basketball team by 2025....

most of these teams might actually start here and work thier way to broward since the need will be there....
 

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all i can say is that we have been through bubbles before and with all the hot tropical air here in miami we can blow another bubble up anytime we want...

so as for miami's realestate bubble is concerned bring it on.... as long as the sun shines miami will always be in business and a self running different economy then the whole entire united states....
 

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luv2bebrown said:
miami's oil will run out sooner or later. then they will no longer be able to build all these condos because its obvious that these condos are being paid for by miami's oil. without oil, miami is nothing and when the bubble bursts there will be only empty condos left.
Mr. Brown :) , I'm 50 years old and you can call me Mr.White, lol. Of all the Posts I've read in here, yours is totally lost :sleepy: . Maybe you have been watching the series on T.V. " Lost " a little too much. " Oil " ???, We here in the sunshine capital of the carribean run on suntan oil and there's no running out on that unless Miami :) sinks. This Great Condo boom we are having here now, will probably last longer than any other condo city boom on this earth, and to tell you the truth , there's no sign of the bubble bursting here in our growing condo city for at least another 5 years. :cheers: Get the Facts straight , bro :) , and Welcome to the Miami Forum.
oh, I almost forgot Mr.Brown, Go Cranes !!! :cheers:
 

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supply side economics will always dictate real estate which is one of the reasons for the current boom.
Metropolitan Miami has failed to produce multi-family rentals in signifacant numbers to satisfy demand in addition there are over 66,000 people locally who are on waiting lists for public housing.
That alone creates pressure for housing which is one of the reasons the city is booming.
 

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Bobdreamz said:
numbers to satisfy demand in addition there are over 66,000 people locally who are on waiting lists for public housing.
That alone creates pressure for housing which is one of the reasons the city is booming.

so we need some more damn affordable... middle class, urban housing, that will do miami much more good than all the million dollar condos will

although, ill take the million buk condos anyday, we need some affordable mid-rise infill development all over the city... and that boom my friends will never end...
 

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haha i was jokin about the oil thing.

i think miamis boom will last a while. if it does end, it will just slowly dissipate. it wont crash.

lets face it, miami is a great place to live, and if u have the money (which a lot of people obviously do) it makes sense to have a place there. also if you're getting tired of suburban expansion and want to live in vibrant neighborhood it just makes sense.
 

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by the time the residential construction dies down, we'll be having an office boom to take its place. And an office boom is the sign of a mature city.
 

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Rx727sfl2002 said:
all i can say is that we have been through bubbles before and with all the hot tropical air here in miami we can blow another bubble up anytime we want...so as for miami's realestate bubble is concerned bring it on....
My mission in this forum is to share my passion for real estate development, architecture, dispell some myths, and share some good inside info...(no, not to convert everyone to Revueltanity)
But additionally, a goal is to help put an end to intelligent people using the phrase "real estate bubble".
We have NOT been through bubbles before. We may have been through
  • buyers markets and sellers markets
  • peaks and troughs
  • or even ups and downs
Please test this premise by scouring the www for the phrase "real estate bubble" appearing in any article prior to March 2000 (for the teens in the room, March 2000 was about the time when the technology/internet stock prices collapsed by about 20% in one week. It is famously referred to as the Internet stock bubble. Just like the collapsing Tulip market...but those are other stories).
Prior to 2000, the phrase certainly wasn't bandied around the way it is now that the Herald has stopped covering every single shark bite or incident of road rage. At Walter Solzcyck might say, "Real Estate bubble is not the preferred nomenclature dude!"
I've just grabbed a couple of books off of the shelf, and checked the indexes for the word bubble. Nada. These are great reads, and highly recommened. The books are
Real Estate Development: Principles and Process by Miles,Berens, & Weiss
and Professional Real Estate Development: The ULI Guide to the Business by Peiser and Frej
Nada bubble.
But here is a pretty good explanation of a real estate cycle...sorry for the long post...but I hope 95% of you find it interesting.

Physical Real Estate Cycle Characteristics

Starting in Phase I – Recovery at the bottom of a cycle, the marketplace is in a state of oversupply from previous new construction or negative demand growth. At this bottom point, occupancy is at its trough. As excess space is absorbed, vacancy rates fall and rental rates stabilize and even begin to increase. Eventually, the market reaches its long-term occupancy average where rental growth is equal to inflation.

In Phase II - Expansion, demand growth continues at increasing levels, creating a need for additional space. As vacancy rates fall, rents begin to rise rapidly pushing rents to cost-feasible levels. At this stage, demand is still rising faster than supply, and there is a lag in the provision of new space. Demand and supply are in equilibrium at the peak occupancy point of the cycle.

Phase III - Hypersupply commences after the peak/equilibrium point when supply is growing faster than demand. When more space is delivered than is demanded, rental growth slows and eventually construction slows or stops. Once the long-term occupancy average is passed, the market falls into Phase IV.

Phase IV - Recession begins as the market moves past the long-term occupancy average with high supply growth and low or negative demand growth. The extent of down cycle is determined by the difference between supply growth and demand growth. The cycle eventually reaches bottom as new construction and completions slow or as demand begins to grow faster than new supply added to the marketplace.

Source: Glenn Mueller, Legg Mason Real Estate, Baltimore, Maryland.
Here it is graphically.
 

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Discussion Starter · #20 ·
I've waited all my skyscraper foruming life to see used, in one thread: 'oil', 'not lasting long on first date', then 'recovery' and 'expansion'. ;)
 
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