NC/VA versus GA/TX

8626 Views 13 Replies 7 Participants Last post by UrbanMyth, Sep 16, 2018

IberiaCLT

Discussion Starter · Aug 8, 2017

I was reading an article how the Democrats cant find a candidate for Texas governor.

It has me thinking, gerrymandering aside, and I've always felt like Texas and Georgia are significantly (for the south) more red than North Carolina & Virginia.

North Carolina and Georgia are similar in size. But Georgia seems to be more solidly Republican versus NC which has been referred to as a swing state for a while now. I feel even Ohio is more red than NC consistently now. I know NC swung for Trump, but to be fair, so did Pennsylvania, Michigan & Wisconson. Solidly blue states.

Why is Texas so red, and Georgia, when they have some of the largest cities? Are the burbs really that entrenched in red?

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GunnerJacket

· #2 · Aug 9, 2017

This is a pretty loaded topic. If I had to try and simply identify the nature of it all then, yes, the rural portions of these states are thick with conservative devotees. Part of this is rooted in the fierce Appalachian/frontier mindset of "leave me alone," and some of it is the religious side where the south is more evangelical Baptist and Methodist versus the northern ecumenical Catholics and Protestants. The south also evolved with a more diluted impact from European immigration, yielding a more racially charged culture while the older rust belt cities featured more ethnic tensions. This means the rural south tends to move as more of a singular bloc.

And while I can't speak for Texas I assume they have a comparable situation where people will very zealously speak about the divide between the cities and the rest of the State. Here we still hear about the Two Georgias - Atlanta vs all the rest. Many parts of the state speak of Atlanta like a truly foreign land and view it with blends of jealousy, disdain, disgust, etc. Some of it is racial, much of it is class-based, and some of it is simply viewing Atlanta as the far-away government center telling poor folks how they can and can't use their land. The result is, in my own opinion, a divide whereby the rural masses in Georgia are, all other things being equal, more vested in their emotional issues that preserve their cultural values (abortion, gay marriage, immigration, etc) than in addressing the pure economical issues of governance.

But that's just me.

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Dale

· #3 · Aug 9, 2017

NC is generally a close race for president. But GOP dominates on the state level. Much moreso than GA and almost as pronounced as TX.

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Quadrilateral

· #4 · Aug 9, 2017

Except democrats retook the governor's seat last year.

In statewide elections NC is a swing state. In gerrymandered legislative elections republicans have an insurmountable advantage, but that says little about the politics of the residents.

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GunnerJacket

· #5 · Aug 10, 2017

Side note, if I may:

Quadrilateral said:
In statewide elections NC is a swing state. In gerrymandered legislative elections republicans have an insurmountable advantage, but that says little about the politics of the residents.

Since we can reapportion State representation in the US house without gerrymandering state lines, why can't the same be done within each state based on county lines? (ie: Keep counties intact in their apportionment.)

Seriously, apart from veiled demographic causes it would seem the easiest, most logical, and least political means for dealing with all this is to mandate that counties cannot be split. Which would seem to make sense doubly so since each county operates as a cohesive governmental community, anyway. If this can't play out in western States that feature too few counties then at least encourage the adoption of this practice everywhere else.

Just asking.

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shivtim

· #6 · Aug 10, 2017

I think this is a very accurate summary.

GunnerJacket said:
This is a pretty loaded topic. If I had to try and simply identify the nature of it all then, yes, the rural portions of these states are thick with conservative devotees. Part of this is rooted in the fierce Appalachian/frontier mindset of "leave me alone," and some of it is the religious side where the south is more evangelical Baptist and Methodist versus the northern ecumenical Catholics and Protestants. The south also evolved with a more diluted impact from European immigration, yielding a more racially charged culture while the older rust belt cities featured more ethnic tensions. This means the rural south tends to move as more of a singular bloc.

And while I can't speak for Texas I assume they have a comparable situation where people will very zealously speak about the divide between the cities and the rest of the State. Here we still hear about the Two Georgias - Atlanta vs all the rest. Many parts of the state speak of Atlanta like a truly foreign land and view it with blends of jealousy, disdain, disgust, etc. Some of it is racial, much of it is class-based, and some of it is simply viewing Atlanta as the far-away government center telling poor folks how they can and can't use their land. The result is, in my own opinion, a divide whereby the rural masses in Georgia are, all other things being equal, more vested in their emotional issues that preserve their cultural values (abortion, gay marriage, immigration, etc) than in addressing the pure economical issues of governance.

But that's just me.

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Dale

· #7 · Aug 11, 2017

Quadrilateral said:
Except democrats retook the governor's seat last year.

In statewide elections NC is a swing state. In gerrymandered legislative elections republicans have an insurmountable advantage, but that says little about the politics of the residents.

In NC, single-issue Republicans voted out the sitting Republican governor. Toll roads alone explain McCrory's razor-thin defeat.

At the same time, Republicans retained a hammer-lock on the state legislature. As a result, the new Democratic governor has to go hat-in-hand to the Republicans.

And on the presidential level, I was a little surprised by how handily Trump carried the state.

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Dale

· #8 · Aug 11, 2017

Quadrilateral said:
Except democrats retook the governor's seat last year.

In statewide elections NC is a swing state. In gerrymandered legislative elections republicans have an insurmountable advantage, but that says little about the politics of the residents.

It's always gerrymandering when you lose.

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Durhamite

· #9 · Aug 13, 2017 (Edited)

Dale said:
In NC, single-issue Republicans voted out the sitting Republican governor. Toll roads alone explain McCrory's razor-thin defeat.

At the same time, Republicans retained a hammer-lock on the state legislature. As a result, the new Democratic governor has to go hat-in-hand to the Republicans.

And on the presidential level, I was a little surprised by how handily Trump carried the state.

NC has historically voted for many Democratic governors while voting for Republican presidents. McCory didn't lose on one issue, he lost a lot of support from independents and mod Dems who backed him due to his moderate record as the Republican mayor of Charlotte. He sided with the far right wing on many issues as Governor which was the beginning of the end.

The national Republican party invested major dollars into NC state-wide races to win the state GA and then gerrymander to shore up victory for the next decade. Problem is the state is becoming more liberal primarily due to the high growth areas of Raleigh and Charlotte. There's only so many tricks in the bag before the chicken comes home to roost.

NC has essentially become a toss up state in the national elections. Hillary was a doomed candidate with the (fake email) October surprises and an easy target to malign having decades of political visibility on record. Even with all that the Trump branding machine didn't blow it out of the water, it was still close.

I wouldn't call a 2,362,631 to 2,189,316 handily. The political pendulum notably makes many swings. I think the next shift will hit the GOP extremely hard as their moderate base shrinks and states like NC continue to become more moderate and liberal. I also think that the national democratic party will invest significant dollars into NC to win back many state-wide races....more gerrymandering to come.

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Dale

· #10 · Aug 13, 2017

Toll roads alone could explain McCrory's defeat. At last check, 22,000 Republican votes flipped in the precinct affected by I-77 toll roads expansion.

My larger point is that NC is solid red.

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Durhamite

· #11 · Sep 5, 2017

Dale said:
Toll roads alone could explain McCrory's defeat. At last check, 22,000 Republican votes flipped in the precinct affected by I-77 toll roads expansion.

My larger point is that NC is solid red.

That didn't help but he lost a ton of support from mod Dems like me when he flipped hard right in the governor's role. That support alone would have shored up victory regardless of the toll road and was small compared to the mod Dems and Independents that defected with pranks like the cookie incident. I really had high hopes for him.

Solidly red means the Democrats would never stand a chance of winning and that is not the case in NC. Sometimes I wonder if a lot of the GOP have a grasp on reality....that statement of alone "solid" red in NC is point in case. I know there are a lot of liberals who live in fantasy world about their convictions but there's a larger majority of right leaning folk who are completely delusional.

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IberiaCLT

Discussion Starter · #12 · Sep 5, 2017

Dale said:
In NC, single-issue Republicans voted out the sitting Republican governor. Toll roads alone explain McCrory's razor-thin defeat.

At the same time, Republicans retained a hammer-lock on the state legislature. As a result, the new Democratic governor has to go hat-in-hand to the Republicans.

And on the presidential level, I was a little surprised by how handily Trump carried the state.

Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan swung towards Trump. I feel like Ohio has trended more red than North Carolina the past few elections.

It's just that generally states with larger cities (Houston, Dallas, Austin, San Antonio) trend more blue. And Texas seems like a GOP behemoth as likely to go blue as California would go red.

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Dale

· #13 · Sep 9, 2017

Durhamite said:
That didn't help but he lost a ton of support from mod Dems like me when he flipped hard right in the governor's role. That support alone would have shored up victory regardless of the toll road and was small compared to the mod Dems and Independents that defected with pranks like the cookie incident. I really had high hopes for him.

Solidly red means the Democrats would never stand a chance of winning and that is not the case in NC. Sometimes I wonder if a lot of the GOP have a grasp on reality....that statement of alone "solid" red in NC is point in case. I know there are a lot of liberals who live in fantasy world about their convictions but there's a larger majority of right leaning folk who are completely delusional.

You're missing my point. Obviously, NC could vote for a democratic president in 2020. But on the state level, the GOP has a virtual stranglehold on government.

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UrbanMyth

· #14 · Sep 16, 2018

Dale said:
You're missing my point. Obviously, NC could vote for a democratic president in 2020. But on the state level, the GOP has a virtual stranglehold on government.

I wouldn't count on it. NC has a long history of being progressive, compared to any state south of New Jersey. When I say "progressive" i mean at a minimum, from a public investment standpoint. That has changed since the state has been flooded by conservatives from outside of NC and the south. Even many of the GOPs elected officials were born here. Native North Carolinians, most of them anyway, know that if it werent for Democrats with progressive credentials, most would still be reading at night by candle-light, driving on dirt roads, and RTP would not exist.

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