I thought we were in a recession. :weird:
New home sales outpacing construction in Houston!
I am posting this to show a positive side of the news in Houston. The media continues to report negative inaccurate reportings on the economy.
New home sales outpacing construction
By NANCY SARNOFF
Copyright 2008 Houston Chronicle
Houston-area builders are selling more homes than they're building, leading to a shrinking supply of new homes on the market.
That's according to the latest survey by Metrostudy, a national consulting company that tracks housing.
Housing starts dropped year-over-year 28 percent to around 34,500 during the 12 months ending in March. But builders closed on 39,880 homes during the same period.
In the first quarter, the area's new housing supply fell to 2.7 months, meaning it would take that long to sell all the finished homes on the market based on prior sales activity. That's an amount experts consider stable, according to Metrostudy.
Brian Binash, president of the Greater Houston Builders Association and Wilshire Homes, said builders have scaled back so much that he's anticipating a shortage of homes as early as this summer.
The shrinking inventory, combined with low interest rates and continued job growth, could lead to higher prices if demand spikes.
"If you're thinking of waiting until this summer or later, I wouldn't," Binash said.
Prices already rose in the first quarter.
The median price of a new home was $202,287, up 15 percent over last year.
David Orlando, president of Brighton Homes in Houston, expects prices to remain flat this year or rise slightly.
"But I don't think we'll have to give the incentives, so we'll make it up there," he said.
New home sales outpacing construction
By NANCY SARNOFF
Copyright 2008 Houston Chronicle
Houston-area builders are selling more homes than they're building, leading to a shrinking supply of new homes on the market.
That's according to the latest survey by Metrostudy, a national consulting company that tracks housing.
Housing starts dropped year-over-year 28 percent to around 34,500 during the 12 months ending in March. But builders closed on 39,880 homes during the same period.
In the first quarter, the area's new housing supply fell to 2.7 months, meaning it would take that long to sell all the finished homes on the market based on prior sales activity. That's an amount experts consider stable, according to Metrostudy.
Brian Binash, president of the Greater Houston Builders Association and Wilshire Homes, said builders have scaled back so much that he's anticipating a shortage of homes as early as this summer.
The shrinking inventory, combined with low interest rates and continued job growth, could lead to higher prices if demand spikes.
"If you're thinking of waiting until this summer or later, I wouldn't," Binash said.
Prices already rose in the first quarter.
The median price of a new home was $202,287, up 15 percent over last year.
David Orlando, president of Brighton Homes in Houston, expects prices to remain flat this year or rise slightly.
"But I don't think we'll have to give the incentives, so we'll make it up there," he said.
1 - 20 of 27 Posts
We are just maybe not everywhere.:I thought we were in a recession. :weird:
Actually the Texas homebuilders do need to chill before they cause problems. Not to bring up a comparison or anything (because as an ex-Houstonian there isn't any place I would want to live more than Houston) but here in the Central Oklahoma metro area job creation is outpacing home building.
There are 1.75 new jobs for every new home built in Central Oklahoma. As a comparison, in the Dallas metroplex, home building greatly outpaces job creation. North Texas is creating .25 jobs for every home that is being built there. Perhaps that is a more reliable indicator of NOT where we are economically, but where this massive home building will have us END up.
Right now there are three kinds of housing markets. The majority are ones where homes just simply aren't moving. These are your "recession markets." Your "non-recession" markets, mainly places like OKC, Dallas, Houston, Austin, etc are divided into two groups, but these are just your markets where homes are still moving. Within this group you have your housing markets that are not in a recession right now but may be cruising for one when the rest of the nation finally clears all of this financial trouble up, and you have your housing markets that are truly, in fact recession-proof right now. These markets are making very conservative moves, not expanding so rapidly, so the windfall of wealth is starting to accumulate and get more concentrated.
Just because homes are moving on the market in the Houston area right now does not make it impervious to a recession. I would say Houston is probably producing more jobs than the Big D, but the sooner Houston stabilizes its home building the better it will be to ride out any downturn in its housing market.
I am not 100% sure whether Houston is creating jobs for all of these new people buying homes, or if it is not. I would hope that it is not where Dallas is (and is going to end up).
There are 1.75 new jobs for every new home built in Central Oklahoma. As a comparison, in the Dallas metroplex, home building greatly outpaces job creation. North Texas is creating .25 jobs for every home that is being built there. Perhaps that is a more reliable indicator of NOT where we are economically, but where this massive home building will have us END up.
Right now there are three kinds of housing markets. The majority are ones where homes just simply aren't moving. These are your "recession markets." Your "non-recession" markets, mainly places like OKC, Dallas, Houston, Austin, etc are divided into two groups, but these are just your markets where homes are still moving. Within this group you have your housing markets that are not in a recession right now but may be cruising for one when the rest of the nation finally clears all of this financial trouble up, and you have your housing markets that are truly, in fact recession-proof right now. These markets are making very conservative moves, not expanding so rapidly, so the windfall of wealth is starting to accumulate and get more concentrated.
Just because homes are moving on the market in the Houston area right now does not make it impervious to a recession. I would say Houston is probably producing more jobs than the Big D, but the sooner Houston stabilizes its home building the better it will be to ride out any downturn in its housing market.
I am not 100% sure whether Houston is creating jobs for all of these new people buying homes, or if it is not. I would hope that it is not where Dallas is (and is going to end up).
What else is new? Houston is growing? A third loop? Just boggles the mind that people like that place. SRG, as long as a barrel of oil costs $120.00+, Houston will be ok. As will Louisiana and Oklahoma.
That kind of thinking winds you back in the middle of an oil bust like the 90s when gas was too cheap. Houston will grow either way; It's a metro nearing 6 million people.
SRG, for the past two years, Houston has created over 100,000 jobs. More than any other metro in the US.
Houston now has a diverse economy. Oil certainly helps but if it goes bust Houston certainly will not. And no we are not in a recession, it takes two negative quarters of GDP growth to have a recession. The first quarter of 2008 we had 0.6% growth. It might not be "super economy" like we are used to but the economy is doing better every day. The Media doesnt like to report this accurately.
Texas and Upstate New York are the most recession proof places in the US.
Upstate New York? Isn't that area declining in population?
More cheap suburbs, or smart urban planning?
Both, just like in every metro area (including Miami).More cheap suburbs, or smart urban planning?
Very true. Let's just say it's lagniappe... a little extra in our budgets. Louisiana is already expecting $900 million extra, and it's only May. That'll end up being at least a $1.5 billion budget surplus. That on top of las year's 1.5 and 2006's over $2 billion in surplus money. I was joking, by the way, with the Houston bashing.That kind of thinking winds you back in the middle of an oil bust like the 90s when gas was too cheap. Houston will grow either way; It's a metro nearing 6 million people.
But this discussion makes me wonder... what are the surplusses for Texas and Oklahoma? It's gotta be close to that of Louisiana. Fill me in.
Luckily, Louisiana has diversified as well, but the main concern to everyone paying any attention to what is going on in BR is that too often, politicians are spending this surplus on recurring expenses... not smart. Hope the other oil states are being more responsible.
Texas, last year, had a $30 billion surplus if I remember right. I don't know about last year, but for FY 2006 Oklahoma had a $6 billion surplus. A lot of it was issued back to the taxpayers in the form of a stupid little $100 check or whatever. I'd rather they keep my puny little $100 and do something about Oklahoma having more miles of rough roads than any other state in the nation, or build a light rail system, or something.
http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=619056
Not true. The bottom line is that generally, the South is the only recession-proof place in the US.Texas and Upstate New York are the most recession proof places in the US.
http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=619056
he's right. upstate NY is so bad that it can't get any worse. texas is growing so fast and has a diversified economy with a low cost of living that it would be able to ride out economic uncertainty.
Texas has one of the most diversified economies of any state in the nation. Even though most people think that Houston's economy is tied to the price of oil, the medical field is nearly equally as big in the city. It is the reason I'm 99% sure we're relocating there later this summer (probably near Katy-don't worry Trae!!:cheers1.
Too many fat people need hip and knee replacements and it's going to make me rich I tell ya!
. Too many fat people need hip and knee replacements and it's going to make me rich I tell ya!
Don't mean to throw cold water, but the main reason new home sales exceeded starts by so much was because new housing starts "dropped 24%".
What this says about the overall health of the Houston area economy, I'm not really sure.
What this says about the overall health of the Houston area economy, I'm not really sure.
That, and Upstate New York totally bypassed the housing boom in the past.he's right. upstate NY is so bad that it can't get any worse. texas is growing so fast and has a diversified economy with a low cost of living that it would be able to ride out economic uncertainty.
That would generally be helpful, though, for Upstate NY.
I live IN Katy. Don't come by my house.Texas has one of the most diversified economies of any state in the nation. Even though most people think that Houston's economy is tied to the price of oil, the medical field is nearly equally as big in the city. It is the reason I'm 99% sure we're relocating there later this summer (probably near Katy-don't worry Trae!!:cheers1
Too many fat people need hip and knee replacements and it's going to make me rich I tell ya!
You're working in the TMC?1 - 20 of 27 Posts
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