SkyscraperCity banner

1 - 20 of 138 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
12,963 Posts
Discussion Starter #1
Nigeria Seen by McKinsey in World’s Top 20 Economies by 2030


Jul 24, 2014 12:03 PM GMT+0200


Nigeria has the potential to be one of the world’s top 20 economies by 2030 with a consumer base exceeding the current populations of France and Germany, according to McKinsey & Co.

Africa’s biggest economy may expand about 7.1 percent a year through 2030, boosting gross domestic product to $1.6 trillion, possibly pushing it above Netherlands, Thailand and Malaysia, the New York-based company said in a report today. About 60 percent of Nigeria’s estimated population of 273 million by then may live in households earning more than $7,500 a year, fueling a consumer boom, McKinsey said.

“Nigeria is poised to become a major economic force,” McKinsey said in the report. “Nigeria has a huge endowment of resources, a growing consuming class, and rapidly growing trade and consumer sectors to propel growth.”

As Africa’s largest oil producer with a population of about 170 million, Nigeria has consistently posted annual growth rates in excess of 4 percent over the past decade. That’s spurred foreign investors such as Unilever Plc (ULVR), Nestle SA (NESN) and Shoprite Holdings Ltd. (SHP) to expand operations despite an upsurge in violence by militants in the north.

Based on McKinsey’s growth estimates for the economy, annual sales in consumer goods could more than triple to $1.4 trillion by 2030 from $388 billion currently, it said.

The retail and wholesale trade industry will probably become the largest contributer to Nigerian growth by then and 35 million households are expected to earn more than $7,500 a year, according to the report.
Oil Contribution

While oil accounts for 70 percent of government revenue and most of Nigeria’s export earnings, its share of the economy has waned. After the statistics office overhauled its GDP data in April, oil’s contribution to economic growth between 2010 and 2013 was 5.1 percent, compared with 14 percent for manufacturing and 20 percent for trade, according to McKinsey.

“If Nigeria reaches its economic potential, the retail and wholesale trade industry could grow 7.1 percent per year,” according to the report. “By 2030, it would likely become the largest contributor to Nigerian GDP, surpassing the agriculture sector.”

The Nigerian Stock Exchange All-Share Index (NGSEINDX) has gained 2.9 percent this year, adding to its 47 percent surge in 2013. The naira has dropped 1.1 percent against the dollar since January.

In order to achieve its potential, Nigeria’s government needs to address poverty, lower the cost of basic services, such as housing and energy, expand electricity supply and boost productivity in farming, McKinsey said.
Poverty Rate

The most recent poverty survey by Nigeria’s statistics agency, published in 2012, showed that 61 percent of Nigerians were living on less than a dollar a day in 2010, up from 52 percent in 2004. Life expectancy is 54 years, eight years lower than in Ghana and 20 years below Brazil, according to McKinsey.

“The policy world, economists can build all manner of scenarios,” Folarin Gbadebo-Smith, managing director for Lagos-based Center for Public Policy Alternatives, said by phone. “It’s a totally disconnected discussion between what we can be and what we will be.” The outcome “depends on what our government does,” he said.



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...y-among-world-s-top-20-economies-by-2030.html
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
10,879 Posts
By 2030 Nigeria will be no.5 in the world by population so making the world's top 20 economies isn't impressive, it's expected. Keep on shouting about your mediocre achievements.
Lol Nigeria won't have the 5th largest population by 2030. And top 20 doesn't meant number 20. It could very well be the 13th largest economy. Not bad
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
11,900 Posts
Lol Nigeria won't have the 5th largest population by 2030. And top 20 doesn't meant number 20. It could very well be the 13th largest economy. Not bad
13th would definitely be impressive. At the moment Nigeria has the 7th largest population (if the completely unreliable statistics are to be believed). And at current growth rates it will overtake Pakistan and Brazil by 2030.
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
10,879 Posts
No one is saying india is indonesia are underperforming despite being second and 4th in population. And in many respects nigeria is doing better than India. Even if nigeria sits at number 20 it's done well and will only improve. That's 16 years from now. Very doable
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,363 Posts
Dude what about your stagnant no growth South Africa Angola have already set thier eyes on you guys and with Angola growth rate they will surpass you guys soon if South Africa continue on its path. The way things are shaping up in Africa by 2040 South Africa will be irrelevant in African scheme of things. Stop trying to stop a fast moving train that you can't stop you either hop in or get run over. Nigeria greatness is here to stay and if can not take it then get da **** out of the way dawg.
I have doubts on Angola surpassing SA or Angola being influential in the region. I see SA continuing to be a powerhouse here for the foreseeable future, and remaining the most advanced economy in Africa.

What may balance things out are a strong and prosperous Zimbabwe and Mozambique which have larger populations and share personal and cultural ties with the Republic.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,363 Posts
Nice, heading to an economy based on consumer spending like Indonesia etc
Absolutely, consumer spending is the true indicator of the general affluence of people on the ground.

The mobile telecommunications industry's growth has shown what opening up a sector to private investment brings.

This can be applied to energy, water and health.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
5,505 Posts
I have doubts on Angola surpassing SA or Angola being influential in the region. I see SA continuing to be a powerhouse here for the foreseeable future, and remaining the most advanced economy in Africa.

What may balance things out are a strong and prosperous Zimbabwe and Mozambique which have larger populations and share personal and cultural ties with the Republic.
South Africa has been spinning its wheels a bit since the global slowdown, but the economy is due to rebound strongly within the next year.
This is because we have been putting the building blocks in place to enable growth...massive projects like Medupi about to come online, and Transnets metamorphosis.
Both power and transport for goods has been near or at capacity, leaving no room for growth.
By year end, we will see these bottlenecks opening up.
Also, the major strikes have played out, allowing a return to full production in most areas. We will still have strikes, but they will have less of an impact now.

Other mega projects like the Durban dig out port and SKA and rail expansions will also kick in to give a boost.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
12,153 Posts
Mckinsey is late we're already 21st or 22nd with the rebased figure. We should be top 20 in the next 5 years actually.

21 Iran 551,588
22 Sweden 523,804
At the moment we're either right below sweden or right above it.

Very soon some "cry-babies" will start sulking and go on to complain to a complicit mod to lock the thread up.....
^^
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,363 Posts
South Africa has been spinning its wheels a bit since the global slowdown, but the economy is due to rebound strongly within the next year.
This is because we have been putting the building blocks in place to enable growth...massive projects like Medupi about to come online, and Transnets metamorphosis.
Both power and transport for goods has been near or at capacity, leaving no room for growth.
By year end, we will see these bottlenecks opening up.
Also, the major strikes have played out, allowing a return to full production in most areas. We will still have strikes, but they will have less of an impact now.

Other mega projects like the Durban dig out port and SKA and rail expansions will also kick in to give a boost.
Indeed the govt of the Republic has to create an environment more conducive for investment to increase, which I hope they are doing. I saw that they take the issue of scientific research quite seriously ( as exemplified by the NRF, SKA and other projects ). Indeed the IT sector alone, which the whole of Africa lags behind on, is an incredible area of future development which can create a lot of wealth (in the e-commerce sector, electronic services etc).

Regarding Nigeria, I am quite certain that the country will advance very rapidly and could indeed reach developed status. I've always seen Nigerians to be very active in business, science and inventions. This is very good for the new type of innovation driven economy. I think of Nigerian giants in science such as Adebola Okikiolu and her father George Okikiolu, great scholars like Nwakuche Chukwu, the list is endless.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
12,963 Posts
Discussion Starter #12
The economic policy that Nigeria has done after 2000 is the best economic policy they have ever done since independence. The financial reforms, banking reforms, liberalizing , privatization have paid off and laid the foundation for the current development.
Even with no top infrastruture, energy shortage etc. Nigeria has been able to reduce poverty and create a strong economic situation as never seen before.

More investment in energy, infrastructure and second structual economic reforms are needed. Like improving doing business, property rights, etc
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
276 Posts
The economic policy that Nigeria has done after 2000 is the best economic policy they have ever done since independence. The financial reforms, banking reforms, liberalizing , privatization have paid off and laid the foundation for the current development.
Even with no top infrastruture, energy shortage etc. Nigeria has been able to reduce poverty and create a strong economic situation as never seen before.

More investment in energy, infrastructure and second structual economic reforms are needed. Like improving doing business, property rights, etc
You forgot the biggest one. PENSION REFORM. This is going to be our biggest source of long term financing especially for infrastructure.


Don't also forget sovereign wealth fund. The list is endless.
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
10,879 Posts
^^
http://m.allafrica.com/stories/201407230166.html/?maneref=http://t.co/xEruywiqbW

Informal Sector Participation - Nigeria Studies Kenya Pension Scheme
23 July 2014 , By Sola Alabadan, Source: Independent
The National Pension Commission (PenCom) sent a study team to Kenya in line with the commission's determination to ensure informal sector participation in the Contributory Pension Scheme (CPS), thereby enhancing coverage of the pension scheme in Nigeria.

Acting Director General of PenCom, Mrs. Chinelo Anohu-Amazu, who disclosed this during the World Pension Summit 'Africa Special' in Abuja recently, said bringing the informal sector into the scheme is one of the challenges the commission is striving to address.

Although the 10 year old pension scheme in the country has recorded 6.3 million contributors and pension assets in excess of N4.3 trillion, Nigerians employed in the informal sector are not yet part of the scheme, she noted.

Having realised that the mobile phones are being used in Kenya to ensure that the people make contribution to the pension scheme, she said PenCom was also considering exploring this option since majority of Nigerians have mobile phones.

In line with the drive towards informal sector participation, the Pension Reform Act 2014 expanded the coverage of the CPS in the private sector as organisations with a minimum of three employees are now required to ensure that their employees are registered under the CPS.

In an effort to mitigate old age poverty, both the World Bank and the International Labour Organisation (ILO) advocate for multi-pillar approaches to retirement saving that provide supplementary windows for old age saving for entire strata of the population. This has been adopted in Kenya.

The first level or zero pillar provides the basic safety net for senior citizens and this covers the most vulnerable people in the society, who are over 65 years of age.

The second level is the social scheme and this involves automatic enrolment for every citizen about 18 years of age. All employers are eligible to be part of it and it is tied to the income tax system, identity card and social security number.

The third level is the occupational scheme which is voluntary contribution.

The fourth level is the personal pension scheme which is personal and it involves annuity and gratuity. Contract workers buy annuity or housing schemes to boost their ego as well as professionals who have been proved to die faster in retirement because of their regimental lifestyles which they cannot continue in retirement.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
602 Posts
Mckinsey is late we're already 21st or 22nd with the rebased figure. We should be top 20 in the next 5 years actually.

21 Iran 551,588
22 Sweden 523,804
At the moment we're either right below sweden or right above it.



^^
This has been a bit of a problem, Nigeria has been growing so fast (and with the rebasing) that by the time this guys put out their reports for where Nigeria will be in 10-20 years Nigeria has already gotten there. Back in 2011 we were told that Nigeria might surpass South Africa in 2030 by 2013 Nigeria's GDP (pre-rebase) was just 40+ billion less than SA's. With the Rebase Nigeria put a huge gap between it and South Africa. Nominally Nigeria will enter the top 20 in the next 2-4 years, top 10 will happen in mid to late 2030's. Top 5 (if the economy does not stall by that point) will happen late 2060's. Between us and the top 10, only Indonesia (correct me if am wrong) is growing anywhere near our level, all other economies are flat-lining or straight up declining. I don't see Nigeria making the top 3 this century, but i will die happy seeing Nigeria in the top 10 economic powers of the world.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
16,872 Posts
16 years isnt long term and have proven quite accurate in nigeria
For GDP growth they havent at all actually. History has shown that projections any more than a few years for SSA nations have been pretty wide off the mark. Nigeria of all countries may explode economically and grow 10% and then you have to bin the predictions.

It wasnt that long ago they made certain projections for Kenya then you had the election violence....They had to start again...Oh yeah, now they are developing large oil fields they will have to start..again...and who knows how much more oil they were find...so they will have to start again. And im not talking minor adjustments either.

Time and time again SSA has shown the dangers of trying to make predictions for economically immature nations. I cant believe someone gets paid for that crap.
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
10,879 Posts
I understand. My view is these are baseline projections. The countries generally beat them. I can't speak for SSA entirely but most of the 'marque' countries have
 
1 - 20 of 138 Posts
Top