Indeed they will unite us, but uniting will only take us so much. At the end of the day, we will need to depend on outside help to build the dams you are talking about. Which foreign company is going to risk building a dam on Abay? Which foreign bank is going to finance the dam?Win the battle to lose the war is the best case scenario you have laid out. Pride for one day strategy. I would actually goat the Egyptian to do this and they will end up unifying a nation that they have destabilized for a long time successfully. You will be seeing dams popping up everywhere for clean water, for irrigation and yes power and what the hell for fun ... small lake here for boating, small lake there for fishing and another one next to it as water feature and another one for Abiy's Park. Some will/can be done for a cost of a single Mig 29 or Raphael + weapons. I would actually name the new mini lakes Migs or Raphaels as a constant reminder to our people and the Egyptians.
Never underestimate your opponent. They can be more devious and resourceful than you think after all they are sitting on 80% of the Nile water.
And an agreement will be reached, there is no other way out of this quagmire for all parties involved. The problem so far has been the Egyptians not wanting to come to terms with the fact that they've lost the upper hand when it comes to Nile issues. Now once they've swallowed their pride and realized there's no way out but to come to a negotiated settlement, they will do just that.It is better to reach an agreement with the Egyptians
In no shape or form has Ethiopia said she doesn't want an agreement but not at the expense of her people. Every country that advances it's self interest would do the same.Indeed they will unite us, but uniting will only take us so much. At the end of the day, we will need to depend on outside help to build the dams you are talking about. Which foreign company is going to risk building a dam on Abay? Which foreign bank is going to finance the dam?
It is better to reach an agreement with the Egyptians, and later on renege on the deal if we are not happy about it. They can't do anything once the dam has water. We can also renege at a time of our choosing when we are both economically and militarily powerful, and can withstand sanctions from the Arab world.
I have no disagreement here. I agree with you 100%.The most unagreeable party in the engagement in the last 10 + years has been Egypt. You well know the only reason Ethiopia did this by herself is because Egypt blocked major financing avenues. She has also sponsored every dick and harry who has wanted arms. It's a bit imbalanced to see Ethiopia as some kind of a bad party in this. What Egypt is dealing with is the proverbial "chicken coming home to roost". Now what Egypt has to do is face the elephant in the room. Her 100+ million people are no special than Ethiopia's 100+ million. Egypt is stuck because she squandered the 100+ year lead time she had assuming she will always be at the top of the totem pole.
I disagree. No foreign contractor will build a dam on Abay nor its tributaries and certainly no foreign bank will fund any dam. The Egyptians don't even need to destroy the dam for this to happen. All it will take is for them to drop one small bomb and threaten they will bomb any other dam on Abay. Salini and the Chinese contractors will pack their bags and never come back.Don't worry about Ethiopia getting financing ... it's in spite of Egypt all this dams were built. Hilm sletefera saytegna aytaderim. Great leaders take risks. Meles gambled on this and he got it right. Abiy is doing the same and he is not wrong upto this point. His team has the substance down but they suck at the PR part. A bombing of the dam has consequences for Egypt more than you think also but I don't want to waste time on something I am 100% will never happen.
I have been doing just that. I always base my arguments on facts and figures.If you are also serious about the weakness or strength of each argument then focus on that and inlighten us.
Their possible military engagement with Ethiopia is focused on destroying or damaging a single structure. They are not hunting down troops, and they are not occupying any land. It is a much simpler operation than their engagement in Yemen. As long as they have the capability to destroy or damage the structure, which they do, and as long as we don't have a deterrence (such as bombing Egypt in return), we are better off in my opinion to sign a deal with them and later on renege once we build the deterrence capacity and once bombing the dam is no longer an option.This obsession with Egypt's military capability that has proven useless even in Yemen does not scare a country that has seen consistent wars through the century. We are just not built like that. Even a divorce lawyer wouldn't advice a battered wife to sign a bad deal because the husband is a CEO of some famous company and neither will Ethiopia ... we are not even a battered wife.
Sudan rejects Ethiopia proposal to sign Nile mega-dam agreement
Sudan calls on Ethiopia, Egypt to resume talks immediately over the controversial dam amid high tensions.
7 hours ago
Tensions have been high in the Nile basin ever since Ethiopia broke ground on the dam project in 2011 [Reuters]
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Sudan has rejected an Ethiopian proposal to sign an initial agreement greenlighting the filling of a controversial mega-dam, calling its neighbour to resume the stalled United States-brokered negotiations on the issue.
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On Tuesday, Sudan's Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok said he refused to sign a "partial agreement" for the dam's filling due to the absence of coordinated planning and outstanding "technical and legal issues" dealing with the dam's "environmental and social impacts".
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed had urged Hamdok to sign the agreement.
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Sudan and Egypt fear the disputed $4.6bn dam on the Nile will trap their essential water supplies once it starts being filled in July as planned by Ethiopia. In a letter to his Ethiopian counterpart, Hamdok also stressed the need to reach an agreement among Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia before the project's completion, according to Sudan’s state-run news agency. He urged the parties to resume talks immediately. Meanwhile, Hamed Saleh, Sudan's chief negotiator in talks on the dam facilitated by the US administration, said: "Most of the issues at play ... cannot be separated ... including long-term environmental and social impacts."
Tensions have been high in the Nile basin ever since Ethiopia broke ground on the project in 2011. Bellicose rhetoric, including the Ethiopian prime minister’s warnings of possible military action last year, have turned the dam into an explosive issue. Ethiopia says the dam is crucial for its economy, while Egypt fears it will disrupt the river that provides almost all of its water. Sudan hopes the dam will provide much-needed electricity and help regulate flooding.
The US Treasury Department and the World Bank stepped in as observers last year to facilitate talks among the three countries after negotiations repeatedly failed.
Ethiopia, Egypt, Sudan to sign dam agreement by end of February
Last week, in Egypt's latest bid to gain support from the international community, Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said he sent a letter to the United Nations Security Council about the dam, raising alarm about Ethiopia's unilateral moves.
The 6,600-kilometre-long (3,900-mile) Nile is a lifeline supplying water and electricity to the 10 countries it traverses.
Its main tributaries, the White and Blue Niles, converge in the Sudanese capital Khartoum before flowing north through Egypt to drain into the Mediterranean Sea.
Source: Sudan rejects Ethiopia proposal to sign Nile mega-dam agreement
You don't have to jump each time they sneeze. Rega bel. Exude confidence.For those who think Sudan is rock solid in its support for Ethiopia, think again. They are desperate to get off the list of terrorism sponsoring countries, and the US is probably using their desperation as leverage. Also, we have seen a border issue between Ethiopia and Sudan unusually flare up. Sudan has been very lenient with this border issue in the past.
So I think it is best for us to sign a deal even if it means it will take a while to fill the dam. Like I said previously before, we can renege on the deal in the future. This is just like Trump reneged on the NAFTA deal. What we ought to fight hard on now are loans and financing for new power projects in exchange for compromising on the dam. We should strive to get at least $5 billion in loans.
Internally, Abiy should build consensus amongst major political actors in the country so that they rally behind him.
First of all, comprehensive water sharing is not in the scope of these negotiations. That is a separate negotiation altogether. The negotiations are strictly confined about how the dam is filled up. We are not negotiating on other tributaries or dams.We are working on a multi generational deal and hopefully we will sign what we think will serve our best interest for the next 100+ years just like it has served Egypt and Sudan since 1929. This is not only about GERD but also about the right over 60+% of Ethiopian water resources (mainly - Abay, Tekeze, Dinder, Rahad and Baro including more than 50 or so tributaries of named rivers). If you sign the current Egyptian favouring deal forget energy or even irrigation you are not going to get even clean drinking water for most of the 200,000,000+ people by 2050 where Egypt dictates how much water she needs and how much should be released to fill her reservoir while preventing you to use the others.
There are numerous tributaries of the Abay between Lake Tana and the Sudanese border. Those on its left bank, in downstream order, include the Wanqa River, the Bashilo River, the Walaqa River, the Wanchet River, the Jamma River, the Muger River, the Guder River, the Agwel River, the Nedi River, the Didessa River and the Dabus River. Those on the right side, also in downstream order, include the Handassa, Tul, Abaya, Sade, Tammi, Cha, Shita, Suha, Muga, Gulla, Temcha, Bachat, Katlan, Jiba, Chamoga, Weter and the Beles.[
Never said this and I think I have a better grasp of negotiating from a position of strength. This is not war spoils take all situation. Egypt want to rescue as much of the colonial era conditions and Ethiopia is saying Hell No!.Secondly, it is impossible to have a deal that satisfies both Ethiopia and Egypt.
True, but the Israelis lost one plane out of the hundreds of sorties they have done. The probability of their planes being shot down is less than 1%. The same probability probably applies to the Egyptians since they have similar equipment and facing the same type of anti-aircraft missiles. Also, the Egyptian planes probably have radars that have a longer range than the Ethiopian planes. This means they won't even need to do a dog fight. They will probably shoot down the Ethiopian planes before they see them. So it is highly unlikely they would be engaged in fuel consuming combat maneuvers.The Isrealis despite having more advanced radar jammers and anti-airdefence capabilities had one of their f-16 in 2018 shot down by a 50 year soviet old missile system. The Syrians don't have the benefit of knowing exactly where the Israelis want to strike. The Israelis also just have to hop over the border sometimes they can even launch their missile from their airspace. Evasive actions means combat speed and even one minute in combat speed can mean not enough fuel to make the 1400 kms back home.
We only need to fear Egypt before the period the dam gets filled. Once the dam has a significant amount of water, Egypt can no longer threaten with its air force. Bombing the dam will flood Sudan and the floods may even damage the Aswan. Egypt would need to have boots on the ground for a long time to safely drain the water from the dam or dams. Ethiopia, even now, is more than strong enough to overcome a ground based Egyptian assault. We just don't have the ability to challenge their air force.If Egypt has GERD under her belt she has no incentive to talk to you about the other comprehensive stuff. When Egypt comes back it will be when you build another dam and she will use GERD agreement as precedence.