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ሰበር

ኢትዮጵያ የመጀመሪያውን ደረጃ የውሃ ሙሌት ለመጀመር ባለው የህግ ማእቀፍ መሰረት የግብፅን ይሁንታ እንደማትፈልግ ለፀጥታው ምክር ቤት አሳወቀች። ኢትዮጵያ በህዳሴ ግድብ ዙሪያ ከሁለት ቀናት በፊት ለፀጥታው ምክር ቤት ያስገባችውኝን የመልስ አቤቱታ FI ከምንጮቹ አግኝቷል።

ባለ 22 ገፁ ደብዳቤ በውጪ ጉዳይ ሚኒስትር አቶ ገዱ የተፈረመበት ሲሆን ለምክር ቤቱ ያስገቡት በUN የኢትዮጵያ ቋሚ ተጠሪ አምባሳደር #ታዬ_አፅቀስላሴ ናቸው። 86 ፐርሰንቱ የናይል ውሃ የሚመነጨው ከሀገሬ ኢትዮጵያ ነው ብለው የሚጀምሩት አቶ ገዱ ግብፅ በኮሎኒያል ስምምነት ላይ ተመስርታ የውሃውን የአንበሳ ድርሻ ስትጠቀም እንደኖረች ተናግረዋል። በዚህ ምክንያት ኢትዮጵያ ውሃውን አመንጭታ ለግብፅ ከማድረስ ባለፈ ለመጠቀም እንዳልቻለች ገልፀው ይህ ኢፍትሃዊነት ሊቀጥል አይችልም ብለዋል። 65 ሚሊዮን የኢትዮጵያ ህዝብ የኤሌክትሪክ ሃይል አቅርቦት የማያገኝ ቢሆንም የግብፅ ህዝብ ግን ባጠቃላይ የአቅርቦት ሽፋን እንደሚያገኝ የሚጠቅሰው ደብዳቤው ግብፅ ከአለም አቀፍ የፋይናንስ ተቋማት ድጋፍ እንዳናገኝ እንቅፋት መሆኗን ኮንኗል።

ኢትዮጵያ ተጨማሪ የማሰቢያ ጊዜ እንደሚያስፈልጋት ገልፃ ባልተሳተፈችበትና በአሜሪካ አደራዳሪነት በተካሄደው የመጨረሻው ውይይት ላይ ያለ ኢትዮጵያ ተሳትፎ ውይይት መደረጉን አቶ ገዱ ለፀጥታው ምክር ቤት አሳውቀዋል። ከዚህ ውይይት በፊት የሚቀሩ አለያይ ነጥቦች (outstanding differences) ነበሩን ብለዋል። እነሱም በአሜሪካ የቀረበው ረቂቅ ስምምነት

⚡ የኤሌክትሪክ ሃይል የማመንጨት አቅምን የሚገድብ መሆኑ
⚡ የቀረቡት ህግጋት የግድቡን ቋት በውሃ ለመሙላትና ለመጠቀም የማያስችሉና የተለመዱ አሰራሮችን ያልተከተሉ መሆናቸው
⚡ ከህዳሴ ግድብ ውይይት የሰፋ ማእቀፍ ያለው ወይም በግድቡ ላይ ያልተወሰነ መሆኑና የአሁንና የወደፊት ትውልዶችን የመጠቀም መብት የተጋፋ መሆኑ
⚡ የኢትዮጵያን በሃብቷ ላይ የማዘዝ ሉአላዊ መብት የተጋፋ መሆኑ እና
⚡ ውይይቱ 250 ሚሊዮን ህዝቦችን (Nile riparian countries) ወደ ጎን ትቶ የውሃ ድርሻ ድርድር እንዲሆን መደረጉ

አቶ ገዱ ግብፅ ቋሚ እንቅፋት መሆኗን አቁማ በትብብር ላይ የተመሰረተ ግንኙነት ማድረግ ይገባታል ያሉ ሲሆን ኢትዮጵያ የውሃ ሙሌት ለመጀመር ማሰቧ የ Declaration of Principles (DoP) ስምምነትም ሆነ አለም አቀፍ የህግ ሃላፊነትን (international legal obligation) የጣሰ አይደለም ብለዋል። (April 10 ጠ/ሚ አብይ ለአልሲሲና ለሱዳኑ ጠሚ አብደላ ሃምዶክ በላኩት ደብዳቤ ኢትዮጵያ የመጀመሪያ ስቴጅ ሙሌት በዚህ ክረምት እንደምትጀምር ቢያሳውቁም ግብፅም ሆነ ሱዳን በተመሳሳይ ቀን April 15 አለመስማማታቸውን በደብዳቤ መግለፃቸውን ከዚህ በፊት FI መፃፉ ይታወሳል)።

ኢትዮጵያ ያቀረበችው የመጀመሪያ ስቴጅ ሙሌት ሁለት አመታት የሚወስድ ሲሆን ከባህር ጠለል በላይ እስከ 595 ሜትር ደረስ የግድቡን ቋት ለመሙላት ያስችላል። ይህም ቋቱ (reservoir) 18.4 cubic meter ውሃ እንዲይዝ ያስችለዋል ማለት ነው። ይህ ውሃ የግድቡን ፓወር ፕላንት ለመሞከር ወይም ቴስት ለማድረግ ጥቅም ላይ ይውላል። በመጀመሪያው አመት 4.9 billion cubic meter በሁለተኛው አመት 13.5 cubic meter የውሃ ሙሌት ለማካሄድ ታስቧል። ይህ ውሃ የሚወሰደው 49 cubic meter አመታዊ ፍሰት ካለው ብሉ ናይል ስለሆነ ለታችኛው ተፋሰስ ሀገራት ይህ ነው የሚባል ጉዳት (significant harm) አይኖረውም ሲል ደብዳቤው ይገልፃል። በዚህ መሰረት ኢትዮጵያ ሙሌቱን ለመጀመር የግብፅን ይሁንታ ማግኘት እንደማይጠበቅባት እና ህጋዊ ግዴታም እንደሌለባት አሳውቃለች። ኢትዮጵያ ግብፅም ከዚህ በፊት ወደ ነበረው የሶስትዮሽ ውይይት እንድትመለስ ጠይቃለች። ይህ በተዘዋዋሪ በአሜሪካ መሪነት እየተካሄደ ባለው ድርድር ላይ ኢትዮጵያ መቀጠል እንደማትሻ ጠቋሚ ነው።

Source: The Finfinne Intercept, Facebook
 

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FYI:
Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and its surrounding become the most secured place on earth. The air space around the dam and its surrounding is heavily guarded . In addition to the s-300 air defense, HQ-64 sam system, tank mounted S-75 sam Dvina, S-125 Neva/Pechora and newly acquired Pantsir missile system, more equipments have been transported beginning of this month to increase ENDF's ability to combat any enemy's air strikes. Here i share you one picture that shows additional Pantsir that has been transported to the dam command area last year.
Thank you Ethiopian National Defense Force
 

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I don't think Ethiopia has the S300. Here's an informative article on our air defenses. Like I said before, the Ethiopian Airforce is not to be scoffed at ...

Ethiopia Strengthens Air Defences with High End Russian Hardware
March-18th-2019

Pantsir Air Defence Combat Vehicle

Pantsir Air Defence Combat Vehicle

Footage released on Ethiopian national television has shown that the country is deploying Russian manufactured Pantsir S1 air defence combat vehicles, as part of a broader military modernisation program. The short range air defence system is highly mobile, and is also capable of engaging ground targets such as infantry and light armoured vehicles - deploying a combination of autocannons and missiles. The weapons platform entered service in the Russian armed forces in 2012, and represents by far the most of Ethiopia’s ground based air defence assets - with the country's armed forces otherwise relying on modernised Vietnam War era assets. These include the S-75 long range surface to air missile system, in service since 1957, and the complementary short ranged S-125 which entered service in 1961 - the former which has been uniquely modified by Ethiopian forces to deploy from mobile launch vehicles.


Ethiopian S-75 Mobile Missile Batteries

Whether Ethiopia’s Pantsir air defence combat vehicles will be supplemented by a complementary longer ranged platform remains to be seen. While a platform such as the S-400, or even the S-300PMU-2, likely remains above the country’s current defence budget - particularly given the lack of an imminent threat - acquisition of a powerful but shorter ranged system such as the BuK-M2 or even the BuK-M3 remains possible. With Ethiopia having frequently been threatened by neighbouring Egypt with airstrikes on its dam infrastructure, the Pantsir is likely to be deployed to defend these positions should its armed forces perceive this threat to be restored - making such a strike far more difficult for a potential aggressor. According to a statement by the Russian Defence Ministry in mid 2018, the Pantsir air defence systems had a 100% efficiency in the Syrian theatre - and were responsible for seriously blunting the effects of Western missiles strikes against the country. Against enemy aircraft equipped with standoff munitions, the Pantsir is most likely to be used to intercept enemy attacks rather than to engage enemy aircraft directly - as these aircraft will in most cases deploy missiles for attack from beyond its range as repeatedly demonstrated in the Syrian theatre against Israeli and Western attacks.



Until the acquisition of the Pantsir, the defence of Ethiopian airspace relied overwhelmingly on the country’s sizeable Air Force - which deploys the second largest fleet of high end heavy air superiority fighters in Africa other than Algeria. This includes a fleet of 18 Su-27 Flankers armed with R-27 air to air missiles, and a further 18 MiG-23 swept wing fighters with the same armament. The Su-27 is currently heavier than anything in the Egyptian fleet, and was key to providing an advantage over neighbouring Eritrea’s MiG-29 fleet during their two year conflict in the 1990s. Another means for Ethiopia to seriously enhance its air defences would be to modernise its Su-27 fleet - possibly contracting Russian assistance to upgrade the aircraft to the Su-27SM2 standard. This would provide them with '4+ generation' capabilities - including state of the art avionics and engines and an Irbis-E radar and integration of high end technologies from the Russian Su-35. Acquisition of more advanced air to air missiles such as the R-27ER and the latest R-77 variants would also go a long way in this regard, providing the aircraft with a far longer engagement range than anything currently in the Egyptian fleet or those of any neighbouring countries.
 

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That tweet is from March 10, 2019.

You and the zehabesha are confusing me here.

Getlost please check the time stamp of your tweets and zehabesha tell us your source ...
 

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I don't think Ethiopia has the S300. Here's an informative article on our air defenses. Like I said before, the Ethiopian Airforce is not to be scoffed at ...



It would have made news if we had, because the Russians made public every contract they signed with all the countries that purchased the S 300 and S 400 systems.
 
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FYI:
Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and its surrounding become the most secured place on earth. The air space around the dam and its surrounding is heavily guarded . In addition to the s-300 air defense, HQ-64 sam system, tank mounted S-75 sam Dvina, S-125 Neva/Pechora and newly acquired Pantsir missile system, more equipments have been transported beginning of this month to increase ENDF's ability to combat any enemy's air strikes. Here i share you one picture that shows additional Pantsir that has been transported to the dam command area last year.
Thank you Ethiopian National Defense Force
zehabesha2018 Can you please mention your source for s-300? as far as i know ETH does not acquire S-300 Missile. Also for Pantsir missile system i am concerned that this air defense system has been very inefficient in Syria.
 

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Shouldn't it help you the same image is being posted as new? Zehabesha did not provide the source and I searched the same images and showed the potential initial source. I thought that would help clarify things. I personally don't believe any of this photos have anything to do with the GERD.

That tweet is from March 10, 2019.

You and the zehabesha are confusing me here.

Getlost please check the time stamp of your tweets and zehabesha tell us your source ...
 

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Excellent points being made here ... hope this guy is part of the negotiation team. Glad to see there is more than one government official who speaks clearly and knows what he is talking about

 
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Shouldn't it help you the same image is being posted as new? Zehabesha did not provide the source and I searched the same images and showed the potential initial source. I thought that would help clarify things. I personally don't believe any of this photos have anything to do with the GERD.
Didnt meant to offend you. I am also suspicious specially with the s-300. But on the other hand, as an Ethiopian, I find it really difficult to understand the confidence and assurances from the ENDF and Ethiopian authorities.They know the capability of Egypt. There must be something behind, and that thing could be s-300 or more. Hence i ask zehabesha for his source,
 

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Didnt meant to offend you. I am also suspicious specially with the s-300. But on the other hand, as an Ethiopian, I find it really difficult to understand the confidence and assurances from the ENDF and Ethiopian authorities.They know the capability of Egypt. There must be something behind, and that thing could be s-300 or more. Hence i ask zehabesha for his source,
I keep looking at the images posted again and again but i don't see any s-300. Which one would look like s -300 to you @GetLostInET ?
 

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I keep looking at the images posted again and again but i don't see any s-300. Which one would look like s -300 to you @GetLostInET ?
I have zero knowledge of weapon systems. Was not claiming but just saying some of the images posted by Zehabesha2018 have previously been posted by others claiming it is something else. That is why we are nagging Zehabesha2018 to provide his source so we don't go back and forth like this.
 

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Nile: River of discord between Egypt and Ethiopia
Tensions escalate in North Africa, with Egypt seeking the intervention of UNSC against Ethiopia on river water sharing issue
Addis Getachew |
19.05.2020
Nile: River of discord between Egypt and Ethiopia

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia

Tensions have escalated in the Eastern Nile region, with Egypt taking a complaint to the UN Security Council (UNSC) against Ethiopia's plan to fill a $5billion hydro dam.

The move has riled a cross-section of people in the region, who believed that Egypt should have exhausted to find regional solutions first by approaching the African Union (AU) – a 55-member pan-African body -- before knocking at the doors of the UN.

On May 1, Egypt formally complained to the UNSC, accusing Ethiopia of diverting waters of Nile River to fill its Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), in the Benishangul-Gumuz region, 15 km east of the border with Sudan.

The dam is believed to be the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa and the seventh-largest in the world.

Although Ethiopia has said that it has prepared its response to the complaint, it, however, assailed Egypt for taking the issue to the UNSC and ignoring the AU.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed had sought the intervention of the current chairperson of the AU, South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa to mediate between the countries to settle the water issue.

Talks between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt broke down in February when the US, which was mediating produced a document that was interpreted heavily tilted in favor of Cairo.

Ethiopia contributes 85%of the waters of the Nile River, which traverses along 11 countries before it joins the Mediterranean Sea.

In its complaint to the UNSC, Egypt has accused Ethiopia of adopting a policy of obstructionism and prevarication that has undermined the negotiating process.

“Ethiopia’s overall objective was, and remains, the exercise of unfettered control over the Blue Nile, including by filling and operating the GERD without considering the interests of downstream countries, “said the complaint.

It has also blamed Ethiopia for harming the rights of downstream riparian states by trying to secure an unrestrained right to undertake future projects.

Egypt launches diplomatic pressure

“Egyptians as of late have launched a multi-pronged diplomatic pressure on Ethiopia cognizant of an international water law that guarantees the rights of riparian countries to utilize rivers within their respective national boundaries,” Silabat Manaye., an author and a senior reporter with the Addis Ababa based Fana Broadcasting Corporate told Anadolu Agency.

Silabat, who has authored a book on Nile politics said that for years foreign powers have plotted against Ethiopia to prevent it from using waters of Abbay, the local name for the Blue Nile River.

“Ethiopia has 65 million people [out of a total 110 million population] without electricity. I completed my schooling studying without electricity. I resent that, “he said.

Zerihun Abebe, a diplomat who is a member of the Ethiopian negotiating team said he was surprised at the attitude of Egypt for taking the complaint to the UNSC and accusing Ethiopia of “unilateralism”.

He said that Ethiopia had a sovereign right to fill the dam constructed within its borders and through local funding.

“Ethiopia invited both Egypt and Sudan and shared details about the GERD in 2012 and kick-starting a process of trilateral talks. And that was based on Ethiopia’s firm stand on the principle of cooperation, regional partnership and to find a win-win solution, “said the diplomat.

According to Ethiopia’s Water and Energy Minister Seleshi Bekele, his country over many years has shared more than 150 technical documents with Egypt and Sudan. Rejecting the allegation of resorting to unilateralism, he said Ethiopia has been committed to multilateralism both regionally and internationally.

Established in 1999, the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) an intergovernmental partnership had been providing a forum for consultation and coordination among 10 countries to settle water sharing issues. The countries included Burundi, DR Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda. Eritrea is an observer.

But Egypt left the NBI when it was decided to set up a Nile Commission. A Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) has been already ratified by four countries including Uganda. By the time six countries ratify, it would become an international treaty to govern all activities in the Nile basin. Leaders of the riparian countries will be members of the much-awaited Nile Commission.

Dam to be filled in four to seven years

According to Ethiopia’s Water and Energy Ministry, it is planning to fill the dam in four to seven years to avoid any water shortage to downstream countries.

The first stage of filling the dam with 4.9 billion cubic meters is expected to begin in July to test two turbines. The GERD gas total capacity of accommodating 74 billion cubic meters of water. The second filling stage will add 13 billion cubic meters of water.

The International Crisis Group (ICG) had recommended a series of steps to prevent escalation of tensions in the region.

The ICG Adviser for Ethiopia William Davison described Egypt's attempts to knock the doors of the UNSC to bring pressure on Ethiopia into signing the US-sponsored draft deal.

“This is unlikely to be successful as there's no sign that Ethiopia is willing to reverse its position. Instead of diplomatic escalation, Egypt should return to the trilateral process and encourage Ethiopia to propose fresh drought-mitigation measures, which have been a key sticking point,” he said.

He further recommended that Ethiopia should meet Egypt halfway to consider its request for a third-party arbitration, perhaps to use an African dispute-resolution mechanism instead of the international process. Prime Minister Ahmed should also recommit to negotiate a comprehensive GERD accord with Egypt and Sudan, he said.

The ICG further stated that if the parties are unable to strike a comprehensive agreement, they should focus on closing an initial deal for the first two years of filling. “That would institutionalize cooperation and provide a suitable foundation and more time to finalize an all-encompassing agreement on GERD's filling and operation, “said the ICG advisor.



Both Egypt and Sudan, however, reject the prospect of an initial agreement on the first filling as suggested by the ICG - an idea of the possibility of which Ethiopia's PM consulted with the leaders of the two countries. Ethiopia says it is, however, not obligated to inform Egypt of its filling schedules.

Anadolu Agency website
 

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Today, the US Supreme court has ruled Sudan must pay a total of $10 billion as compensation for the Kenya and Tanzania bombings done by Al Qaeda. This may revert back Sudan's recent maneuvers such as troop movements near the contested parts of the Ethio-Sudan boundary and it's refusal in signing a separate agreement with Ethiopia with regards to the early filling schedule of the dam. It appears from the Sudanese perspective there is nothing to gain by siding with the American position, because they need to pay the exorbitant compensation and the US sanctions won't be lifted until they start paying. As far as the Egypt-Sudan relationship, there is a major boundary problem between the two countries, which the Egyptians solved by force (Halayib Triangle: Halayib Triangle - Wikipedia). I don't think the Egyptians will rollback their occupation, so they have nothing major to offer the Sudanese.

Sudan 'must pay' US East African embassy attack victims


Stretcher being pulled out of the rubble


More than 200 people died in the simultaneous attacks on the US embassies in Kenya, shown here, and Tanzania Sudan is required to pay punitive damages to some of the victims of the 1998 embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania carried out by al-Qaeda, the US Supreme Court has ruled. More than 200 people died and thousands were injured in the attacks. Sudan was accused of giving al-Qaeda and its leader Osama Bin Laden technical and financial support.

The Supreme Court ruling applies to US nationals, embassy employees and contractors.
The ruling comes at a time when Sudan's new government is pushing to be removed from the US's list of state sponsors of terrorism.

Sudan 'denies terror link'
The unanimous decision by the Supreme Court means that about $800m (£650m) out of the more than $4bn that was awarded in punitive damages in 2011 has been reinstated, Christopher Curran, who was representing Sudan, is quoted by the Reuters news agency as saying.

People praying at a amemorial


There is now a memorial in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, to the victims of the attack

Nine years ago, the judge in the Federal District Court in Washington said that Sudan should pay roughly $6bn in compensation as well as the $4bn in punitive damages, the New York Times reports. In 2017, Sudan successfully challenged the ruling on the punitive damages arguing that they were awarded under a 2008 amendment to a law that could not be applied to something that happened 20 years earlier. The Supreme Court decided on Monday that Congress had said it was possible for it to be used retrospectively.

"As always, Sudan expresses sympathy for the victims of the acts of terrorism at issue, but reaffirms that it was not involved in any wrongdoing in connection with those acts," Mr Curran said.
The case of punitive damages for Kenyans and other nationals who were not directly employed by the embassies, as well as non-US relatives of any of those injured or killed in the attacks, was referred back to a lower court.

In from the cold
Matthew McGill, who was representing some of the victims, said: "We are hopeful that this soon will lead Sudan to reach a just and equitable resolution with its victims."

The $6bn compensation was not in dispute in this case and in February it was reported that Sudan was in negotiations over the sum to be paid. At that time, Sudan had agreed to compensate the families of 17 US sailors who died when their ship, the USS Cole, was bombed by al-Qaeda at a port in Yemen in 2000. This was a key condition set by the US for Sudan to be removed from its blacklist, which would allow sanctions to be lifted. The new government in Sudan in power following the 2019 overthrow of long-serving President Omar al-Bashir is keen to repair relations with the US, which should help end its economic isolation. Bashir, who is now in detention after being sentenced for corruption, was in power when the embassy and ship attacks happened.
 
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