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It looks like Ethiopia has changed its position on unilaterally filling the dam:



In the end, I have a feeling Ethiopia is going to agree to a drought mitigation effort that is going to satisfy Egypt. I have said before, it would have been best if Ethiopia agreed to such mitigation effort with US led mediation, because we could have gotten loans to fund other projects in exchange to agreeing. Now, we are probably getting nothing. Pride screwed us up.

Regardless, agreeing is the best option. We don't have a deterrence to a military confrontation with Egypt at this point. If we feel the agreement is not good for us, we can force a renegotiation on our terms, once the dam has water and once we are economically and militarily powerful. Right now, we are just not there.
Kibret and other folks here. Stop being a p{BLEEP}y. Egypt ain't got nothing on Ethiopia and aymokerutim.
 

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Sorry for being a bad sport, but we got to contemplate the ifs of what is possible.
By the way, I wasn't just saying it for moral or fukera reasons. Lets think about it. Egypt has a relatively large airforce right? But a large dam like the GERD is practically indistractable by convensional bombing alone unless some sort of a atomic bomb was involved.

Another options the Egyptians have is ground invasion. Yes the Egyptians have some flashy gadgets but we have enough gadgets of our own to counter a career military like that of Egypt's. Plus they have the disadvantage of not being our immediate neighbor which means they have to cross the vast nation of The Sudan first before they get to us. By the time they get to us, we will offer them some gursha as they will be tired and exhausted.
 

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Hello guyz. I am a Kenyan. I support Ethiopia 100% on this and I think Ethiopia has a right to use its own waters. However, I have a question. What will Ethiopia do if the two weeks of negotiations do not result in an agreement? Will Ethiopia go ahead with its filling schedule? What is your opinion on this issue? My own outsider opinion is that the PM of Ethiopia has already promised the people of Ethiopia that the dam will be filled in July and he could face political backlash if he does not do as promised. So It is fait accompli and the dam will be filled.
 

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Hello guyz. I am a Kenyan. I support Ethiopia 100% on this and I think Ethiopia has a right to use its own waters. However, I have a question. What will Ethiopia do if the two weeks of negotiations do not result in an agreement? Will Ethiopia go ahead with its filling schedule? What is your opinion on this issue? My own outsider opinion is that the PM of Ethiopia has already promised the people of Ethiopia that the dam will be filled in July and he could face political backlash if he does not do as promised. So It is fait accompli and the dam will be filled.
Yea Ethiopian Postition is that -deal or not deal , The will go about the schedule and fill the dam. It has been number 1 agenda for Ethiopians for the couple of weeks. The Pm have no chioce then Filling the dam. If he dont , Its political Suicide.
 

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By the way, I wasn't just saying it for moral or fukera reasons. Lets think about it. Egypt has a relatively large airforce right? But a large dam like the GERD is practically indistractable by convensional bombing alone unless some sort of a atomic bomb was involved.
They don't need to destroy it all the way. The problem is if they damage it, foreign companies won't work on it. That is what I fear the most.

Another options the Egyptians have is ground invasion. Yes the Egyptians have some flashy gadgets but we have enough gadgets of our own to counter a career military like that of Egypt's. Plus they have the disadvantage of not being our immediate neighbor which means they have to cross the vast nation of The Sudan first before they get to us. By the time they get to us, we will offer them some gursha as they will be tired and exhausted.
I am totally not scared of the them on the ground. If the Houthis survived Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE and others put together, we definitely can prevail.
 

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Hello guyz. I am a Kenyan. I support Ethiopia 100% on this and I think Ethiopia has a right to use its own waters. However, I have a question. What will Ethiopia do if the two weeks of negotiations do not result in an agreement? Will Ethiopia go ahead with its filling schedule? What is your opinion on this issue? My own outsider opinion is that the PM of Ethiopia has already promised the people of Ethiopia that the dam will be filled in July and he could face political backlash if he does not do as promised. So It is fait accompli and the dam will be filled.
Thank you for your support. The prime minister of Ethiopia has no political choice but to start filling the dam in July. Also technically, I don't think the filling of the dam can be stopped at this point in time, the center spillway of the dam has been raised up to the two-year filling level (560 masl) and the bottom outlets of the dam do not have the capacity to release all the water that is expected during this rainy season, so the dam's filling is a fait accompli. My understanding is the Egyptians and Sudanese are not objecting the amount of water to be impounded during the first two years of filling anyways. The holdup in negotiations right now is about conflict resolution (what kind of arbitration will occur if issues arise in the future) and the amount of water that will be released during consecutive dry years. My understanding is all three countries have already reached an agreement on the filling schedule of the dam (4 to 7 years depending on water availability).
 

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Another options the Egyptians have is ground invasion. Yes the Egyptians have some flashy gadgets but we have enough gadgets of our own to counter a career military like that of Egypt's. Plus they have the disadvantage of not being our immediate neighbor which means they have to cross the vast nation of The Sudan first before they get to us. By the time they get to us, we will offer them some gursha as they will be tired and exhausted.
The issue are not the Egyptian forces, the issue are the Sudanese forces. The officers of the Sudanese military are much more Egypt-friendly than Ethiopia-friendly while the transitional government is more Ethiopia-friendly than Egypt-friendly. Maybe you remember the howling of the Sudanese military spokesperson against Ethiopia suggesting an all-in-all-out war against Ethiopia after the last boarder incident near Metema.

It did not happen by chance, that the deputy leader of the sovereignty council of Sudan, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, visited Addis Ababa last week. That was an attempt at calming down the Sudanese side and in particular the Sudanese army. Consider that Egypt might be bribing some Sudanese officers to act against Ethiopia and against the dam in particular. That would be much more dangerous than any direct activity by the Egyptian forces and some Sudanese forces might be marching against the dam.

That would be a nightmare for the Sudanese PM, for the Sudanese sovereignty council, for the Ethiopian government - and for Sudan and Ethiopia in general. So lets hope that the Sudanese military is not too corrupt and is listening to their new army chief.
 

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Thank you LaoTze for posting this important project development. I am sure most of you have checked the source and translated the information. For those who did not this is the google translation about the development thanks again LaoTze bringing this detail.


The assembly of the pressure steel pipe transition section of the right bank unit of the Ethiopian Knot Project is completed in the factory


Four sets of equipment 5 days ago


Recently, the on-site assembly of the pressure steel pipe transition section of the 5 units on the right bank of the Ethiopian Knot Project has been completed. After the on-site working conditions are met, the installation of the transition section of the remaining units on the right bank will be completed.

The total production volume of 11 units of pressure steel pipe transition section of the Ethiopian Knot Project is about 700 tons. Due to transportation restrictions, the assembly in the plant is divided into TU1 and TU2 upstream and downstream sections in the steel pipe plant. Among them, the top plate of TU1 (inner diameter of upstream pipe mouth 8500*6000mm) is connected to the air hole, and TU2 (inner diameter of downstream pipe mouth 8000mm) is connected to the upper bending section of the pressure steel pipe.

Before the assembly of the pressure steel pipe gradient section began in the factory, the technical department organized relevant personnel to organize a technical briefing meeting in time, explained in detail the key points and difficulties in the quality control during the assembly process, and required the operator to project the size on the ground before assembly Stake out, and report to the quality inspection personnel for review and acceptance to start production. In the process of assembling the first set, it took too much time because of the difficulty in assembling the arc plate. The technical quality department analyzed the problems existing in the assembly process of the first set of gradient sections, and strengthened technical services through optimization of process measures and process quality tracking to provide solid technical support for the subsequent assembly of the gradient sections.

Since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the resources of the project department have been seriously affected. In the case of limited resource allocation, the project department reasonably arranged production and successfully completed the assembly task of the transition section of the 5 units on the right bank according to the node goal and passed the acceptance. In the follow-up, the project department will organize the assembly work of the pressure steel pipe transition section of the left bank unit according to the actual situation.

Written by: Hu Weiwei Photography: Zhang Tao

Audit: Wang Yangyang Approval: Wei Huming
 

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Ethiopians you lot have been sold fear. Fear of war, bombing, sanctions etc. Its all plain stupid.

Egypt bombs Ethiopia and it just escalates everything forever. The Pandora box is opened and there is no going back. All the upstream Nile nations that produce this water view Egypt opinion on this as a spoilt child having gotten used to the golden spoon for centuries thanks to the west. They bomb Ethiopia and all colonial documents and agreements are null and void. Now they will need to bomb all upstream nations forever. Also that Aswan dam is not bomb proof. An eye for an eye. We have a saying in Kenya that a war that is highly hyped and talked about never takes place. All Egypt is doing is posturing their new toys from uncle sam. Don't let it get into you mentally. Ethiopia show some pride, Egypt can't be openly and broadly threatening you. Tell them enough talk, attack and its war.

Listen even 10 similar dams can't hold the billions of litres of water produced that flows the Nile river. Its all about how you fill the dams and let "considerable" levels of rivers continue unabated.

The world is changing rapidly, the old normal is not the future normal. In the next ten years significant progress will move nations to trade in multi currencies, multi banking structures and clearing platforms away from washington and brussels control. That is when unilateralism in this world will start going back to mutual alliances. Don't be fooled to sign documents that bids you for another century at the push of a declining power.
 

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My fear has to do with what it will cost us economically if they hit the dam for there is a possibility they might. It will set back our development by a lot of years. We have to scramble to develop alternative power resources, and we have to buy advanced weapons to protect our second rebuilding effort. All this will cost us 3 to 5 times the cost of the dam. Just to put things into perspective, Egypt has already spent more than what we spent on the dam buying French and Russian fighter plans for the sole purpose of having the capability to strike the dam. There is no other explanation as to why they bought these planes, because they already got 200 plus F-16 from the Americans for free. The problem with those F-16s is they don't have the range to get to the dam.

I understand on their end it is an equally fearful operation. Striking the dam would mean Ethiopia would arm itself and make sure it would reciprocally strike Egypt if Egypt attempts to strike a rebuild of the dam or a build of a new dam. Furthermore, it is a guarantee Ethiopia will build a dam without consulting Egypt. However, we don't know how they are hedging their risks. They could take the approach the Israelis took when the destroyed the Iraq nuclear reactor.

So because we don't know what they would do, we should try our best to reach an agreement with them even if we feel it is to our detriment. Like all treaties, we can force a renegotiation when we are strong. Also, there are other aspects that are not included in the deal, which is a water sharing agreement. When the timing is right, we can get a treaty that is favorable for us and the riparian countries.
 

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I understand on their end it is an equally fearful operation. Striking the dam would mean Ethiopia would arm itself and make sure it would reciprocally strike Egypt if Egypt attempts to strike a rebuild of the dam or a build of a new dam. Furthermore, it is a guarantee Ethiopia will build a dam without consulting Egypt. However, we don't know how they are hedging their risks.
Egypt is sitting at the weak end of the river. It would be sufficient to poison the Aswan High Dam waters or to use almost all the Nile waters for irrigation purposes in Ethiopia and / or Sudan. Egypt could never stop that with two or three fighter jets.

It must be in the total interest of Egypt to get a fair and balanced treaty with all three countries working together so that they might even consider scrapping the Aswan High Dam in favor of the GERD and then benefitting from an additional 10-16 bcm of water annually because the water is no longer evaporating from the lake behind Aswan High dam.
 

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Ethiopians you lot have been sold fear. Fear of war, bombing, sanctions etc. Its all plain stupid.

Egypt bombs Ethiopia and it just escalates everything forever. The Pandora box is opened and there is no going back. All the upstream Nile nations that produce this water view Egypt opinion on this as a spoilt child having gotten used to the golden spoon for centuries thanks to the west. They bomb Ethiopia and all colonial documents and agreements are null and void. Now they will need to bomb all upstream nations forever. Also that Aswan dam is not bomb proof. An eye for an eye.
this^^✔

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Egypt. However, we don't know how they are hedging their risks. They could take the approach the Israelis took when the destroyed the Iraq nuclear reactor.

So because we don't know what they would do, we should try our best to reach an agreement with them
even if we feel it is to our detriment.
and this^^

you sire should change your name from Kenya patriot to East Africa patriot
 

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Ethiopians you lot have been sold fear. Fear of war, bombing, sanctions etc. Its all plain stupid.

Egypt bombs Ethiopia and it just escalates everything forever. The Pandora box is opened and there is no going back. All the upstream Nile nations that produce this water view Egypt opinion on this as a spoilt child having gotten used to the golden spoon for centuries thanks to the west. They bomb Ethiopia and all colonial documents and agreements are null and void. Now they will need to bomb all upstream nations forever. Also that Aswan dam is not bomb proof. An eye for an eye. We have a saying in Kenya that a war that is highly hyped and talked about never takes place. All Egypt is doing is posturing their new toys from uncle sam. Don't let it get into you mentally. Ethiopia show some pride, Egypt can't be openly and broadly threatening you. Tell them enough talk, attack and its war.

Listen even 10 similar dams can't hold the billions of litres of water produced that flows the Nile river. Its all about how you fill the dams and let "considerable" levels of rivers continue unabated.

The world is changing rapidly, the old normal is not the future normal. In the next ten years significant progress will move nations to trade in multi currencies, multi banking structures and clearing platforms away from washington and brussels control. That is when unilateralism in this world will start going back to mutual alliances. Don't be fooled to sign documents that bids you for another century at the push of a declining power.
The majority of Ethiopians have the same opinion as you on the matter. No Ethiopian fears Egypt, they tried invading Ethiopia 150 years ago and got a whooping they never forgot. Bombing the dam or invading it is out of the question in this day and age. It's all bluster. They'll end up making an agreement, there's no other way out of this quagmire.
 

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Planeload of Kalashnikovs sends warning to world over Ethiopia's massive new dam
The plane from Egypt packed with a cache of weapons was meant to arrive in Somalia in May.
But the two thousand Kalashnikovs, rocket launchers, sniper rifles, pistols and mortars never touched down.
They were stopped, a senior Somali official told The Sunday Telegraph, because of fears in Mogadishu of Somalia being publicly drawn into a growing row between two of Africa’s superpowers.
Egypt has been the dominant power on the Nile for thousands of years. But the balance of power is about to shift far upstream.
In the next few weeks, when the rainy season arrives, Ethiopia will start to fill up a vast reservoir with the waters of the Blue Nile, one of the great river’s two main tributaries. One of Africa's largest infrastructure projects will effectively give Ethiopia the power to turn off the taps in Egypt - and could force neighbouring countries to pick a side.
For nearly a decade, Ethiopia has been constructing a one-mile-long wall of cement almost twice the height of the Statue of Liberty. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, as it is known, straddles the Blue Nile, only a few miles from the border with Sudan.
The mega project is almost complete. It will be the largest hydroelectric dam in Africa, capable of holding 72-billion cubic metres of water and doubling the country’s unstable energy supply.
For Ethiopia, the dam is a national wonder — a statement of a people treated cruelly for the last century emerging onto the world stage, and a stepping stone towards industrialisation.
The £3.8bn needed for the project has been raised without international help through private donations and government bonds. Ethiopian civil servants have even been asked to pay part of their salary towards the construction.
 

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Planeload of Kalashnikovs sends warning to world over Ethiopia's massive new dam
This is exactly why we should have signed an agreement with them in DC. Now they arming rebels, and they even mounted a coup, if the Ethiopian government allegations are true. We should think with our heads and not our hearts.
 
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