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Prime Minister Raila Odinga is juggling three balls in the air and if he lets one fall, he could be political minced-meat for his rivals in the 2012 presidential election.
He could be the proverbial politician who was given rope to hang himself and did not disappoint. He could also emerge victor and legitimate "owner" of a new Kenya into whose hands history has thrust the opportunity to help deliver. In 2003 Raila, who played a leading role in getting President Kibaki elected, was Roads minister and supervised the demolition of palatial buildings standing on land initially set aside for by-passes in Nairobi.
He did it with gusto, but it soon appeared to be another addition to Kenya’s list of white elephant projects.
In the 2007 campaigns against Kibaki, the demolitions came to haunt him — but he argued they had to go down to pave way for a better face of Kenya’s capital.
Ambitious projects
But today (Friday), he will proudly stand beside Kibaki as he officially inaugurates the Sh8.5 billion Eastern and Northern bypasses at the junction of Kangundo and Ruai roads opposite the Administration Police College, Embakasi, Nairobi.
But the question is: Will he pull through with what is on his hands? The President has cast him as senior to Cabinet members except himself.
But Raila says he is ready to pay the political price of helping change Kenya, arguing the task at hand was more beneficial to Kenya. On Wednesday evening he told KTN that issues of conservation "must not be politicised".
"I have been a victim of propaganda of vested interest. Kenya is more important than an individual. If I am to pay a price to conserve the environment so let it be."
"Sometimes governments are forced to take unpopular decisions that may force it out of power… it has been done in the Amazons in Malaysia and several other countries.
"We have discussed as a Government, at the Cabinet and with the President. It is not Raila’s agenda," he said.
"Statements have been made that I am a turncoat… I have changed positions. No. We agreed that people move from the Mau Forest and be compensated. Those with title deeds will be compensated."
The first ball is overseeing ambitious and yet sensitive multi-million projects. Their successful execution is his personal triumph given that Kibaki bolstered his position.
If this falls, President Kibaki will have achieved two goals; his display of willingness to let Raila push the wheel of development, but still share the fruit of success and use it to rebuild his legacy, which ails from the aftertaste of post-election violence.
But if the four-year programmes, among them the 18 projects for which the Cabinet yesterday approved Sh250 billion over a period of eight years fail, his rivals will use this to demonstrate that he is a fast talker, but slow delivery. In addition, Kibaki will have sent the message he gave Raila the room to work, but he squandered the opportunity.
Ministers’ goodwill
This is tricky for Raila because the success of the programmes would depend on the goodwill of other Cabinet ministers and movers of government whom the National Accord gave him powers to supervise and coordinate their operations.
They include the President and the other leaders who just a few months ago would not hear him out when he lay claim to the office of Leader of Government Business in Parliament. Or even when he insisted in public he came first before the Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka. The other side of Government sneered at him and told him he was daydreaming.
Raila’s second ball in the air is his grassroots popularity, especially in the Rift Valley where he was handed the task of clearing the swathes of forests land parcelled out to peasants and the mighty and moneyed.
Critics argue that if Raila mishandles this, in 2012 he will be told, as is the case now, he is turning against the same people who voted, and probably died for him. Some Rift Valley leaders, whose constituents incidentally stand to lose the most if degradation of Mau continues, have for example began accusing him of betraying them and being drunk with power.
"I urge the Prime Minister to do all he can to reclaim the forest illegally lost to private individuals and developers," Kibaki said on Wednesday as he bestowed on Raila the difficult but yet potentially rewarding assignment.
Building on the sweeping mandate Kibaki added: "I call upon Kenyans support this effort to ensure the country has enough rain and food."
The flipside of this is that if the programme succeeds, Raila could get the connection he needs with the ordinary people, in line with his 2007 election — that his would not be a repair, but overhaul of the country.
But in private, some of his supporters think that even though Kibaki has "certainly warmed" up to Raila, and had been with him recently in many joint functions, the President is letting Raila do the spadework then he reaps the fruits.
Others argue that Raila by his nature is aggressive and ambitious, and when given an inch he could take a mile. This group argues that the PM is where he wanted after missing State House.
Immense powers
In this corner, he is able to turn the country around as much as he would, through for example irrigation, water distribution, as well as agricultural, employment and youth development programmes — whose execution he will now coordinate and supervise.
The third ball Raila has to juggle along with the "brutal" side of his office is enforcing unfavourable Government and Cabinet programmes, such as his and Kibaki’s preferred mode of trying post-election suspects without killing or dividing his Orange Democratic Party — easily Kenya’s most organised and cohesive party during the campaigns. If he loses it, as some argue, he could by 2012 end up a giant standing on mosquito feet.
Raila argues, "I have been trying to explain to people and to dialogue with them that I do not mean bad… I mean well."
But either way his friends and enemies will be watching his juggling — each saying a different prayer.
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