The PMI Risk Index
The PMI Risk Index is a statistical model based on certain measures of economic activity and conditions that PMI believes is predictive of the likelihood of home-price declines over the next two years. Factors used to derive the PMI Risk Index include the House Price Index from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, labor market statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the affordability index, which captures changes in the demand for housing as a function of local median household income and interest rates.
The PMI Risk Index scale ranges from one to 1,000, where a higher score indicates a higher likelihood of future home price declines. For example, a PMI Risk Index of 100 indicates a 10% chance of a decline in home prices over the next two years.
Because the PMI Risk Index scale is linear, if the PMI Risk Index for an MSA were to increase by 100%, say to 200 from 100, then, according to the PMI Risk Index model, the risk of home price decline has also doubled. Alternatively, if the score were to decline by 50%, for example to 50 from 100, the risk of home-price decline has also declined by 50%.
A complete copy of the latest PMI Economic and Real Estate Trends report containing the latest PMI Risk Index scores and analysis is available at:
PMI Risk Index by MSA
Risk
MSA Index
----------------------------------------------------------------------
San Jose, CA PMSA 526
Oakland, CA PMSA 485
Nassau-Suffolk, NY PMSA 468
Boston, MA-NH PMSA 467
San Francisco, CA PMSA 439
San Diego, CA MSA 387
New York, NY PMSA 349
Orange County, CA PMSA 344
Sacramento, CA PMSA 317
Detroit, MI PMSA 302
Providence-Fall River-Warwick, RI-MA MSA 264
Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA PMSA 258
Riverside-San Bernardino, CA PMSA 237
Denver, CO PMSA 227
Bergen-Passaic, NJ PMSA 219
Minneapolis-St Paul, ,MN-WI MSA 218
Fort Lauderdale, FL PMSA 180
Newark, NJ PMSA 174
Average 171
Miami, FL PMSA 145
Austin-San Marcos, TX , MSA 128
Dallas, TX PMSA 126
Tampa-St Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA 114
Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC MSA 112
Washington, DC-MD-VA-WV PMSA 111
Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA PMSA 98
Portland-Vancouver, or-WA PMSA 98
Greensboro--Winston-Salem--High Point, NC MSA 97
Houston, TX PMSA 96
Phoenix-Mesa, AZ MSA 96
Orlando, FL MSA 88
Kansas City, MO-KS MSA 86
Fort Worth-Arlington, TX PMSA 84
Chicago, IL PMSA 84
Atlanta, GA MSA 82
Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, NC MSA 76
Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Newport News, VA-NC MSA 72
Cleveland-Lorain-Elyria, Oh PMSA 71
St Louis, MO-IL MSA 71
Baltimore, MD PMSA 70
Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI PMSA 67
New Orleans, LA MSA 63
Las Vegas, NV-AZ MSA 62
Philadelphia, PA-NJ PMSA 62
Columbus, OH MSA 62
San Antonio, TX MSA 61
Nashville, TN MSA 61
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN PMSA 59
Indianapolis, IN MSA 58
Salt Lake City-Ogden, UT MSA 58
Pittsburgh, PA MSA 55
The PMI Risk Index is a statistical model based on certain measures of economic activity and conditions that PMI believes is predictive of the likelihood of home-price declines over the next two years. Factors used to derive the PMI Risk Index include the House Price Index from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, labor market statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the affordability index, which captures changes in the demand for housing as a function of local median household income and interest rates.
The PMI Risk Index scale ranges from one to 1,000, where a higher score indicates a higher likelihood of future home price declines. For example, a PMI Risk Index of 100 indicates a 10% chance of a decline in home prices over the next two years.
Because the PMI Risk Index scale is linear, if the PMI Risk Index for an MSA were to increase by 100%, say to 200 from 100, then, according to the PMI Risk Index model, the risk of home price decline has also doubled. Alternatively, if the score were to decline by 50%, for example to 50 from 100, the risk of home-price decline has also declined by 50%.
A complete copy of the latest PMI Economic and Real Estate Trends report containing the latest PMI Risk Index scores and analysis is available at:
PMI Risk Index by MSA
Risk
MSA Index
----------------------------------------------------------------------
San Jose, CA PMSA 526
Oakland, CA PMSA 485
Nassau-Suffolk, NY PMSA 468
Boston, MA-NH PMSA 467
San Francisco, CA PMSA 439
San Diego, CA MSA 387
New York, NY PMSA 349
Orange County, CA PMSA 344
Sacramento, CA PMSA 317
Detroit, MI PMSA 302
Providence-Fall River-Warwick, RI-MA MSA 264
Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA PMSA 258
Riverside-San Bernardino, CA PMSA 237
Denver, CO PMSA 227
Bergen-Passaic, NJ PMSA 219
Minneapolis-St Paul, ,MN-WI MSA 218
Fort Lauderdale, FL PMSA 180
Newark, NJ PMSA 174
Average 171
Miami, FL PMSA 145
Austin-San Marcos, TX , MSA 128
Dallas, TX PMSA 126
Tampa-St Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA 114
Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC MSA 112
Washington, DC-MD-VA-WV PMSA 111
Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA PMSA 98
Portland-Vancouver, or-WA PMSA 98
Greensboro--Winston-Salem--High Point, NC MSA 97
Houston, TX PMSA 96
Phoenix-Mesa, AZ MSA 96
Orlando, FL MSA 88
Kansas City, MO-KS MSA 86
Fort Worth-Arlington, TX PMSA 84
Chicago, IL PMSA 84
Atlanta, GA MSA 82
Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, NC MSA 76
Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Newport News, VA-NC MSA 72
Cleveland-Lorain-Elyria, Oh PMSA 71
St Louis, MO-IL MSA 71
Baltimore, MD PMSA 70
Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI PMSA 67
New Orleans, LA MSA 63
Las Vegas, NV-AZ MSA 62
Philadelphia, PA-NJ PMSA 62
Columbus, OH MSA 62
San Antonio, TX MSA 61
Nashville, TN MSA 61
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN PMSA 59
Indianapolis, IN MSA 58
Salt Lake City-Ogden, UT MSA 58
Pittsburgh, PA MSA 55