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COVID-19: Australia’s great exodus revealed
The coronavirus is driving the biggest population decline in Australian history, with 300,000 tourists, temporary workers and students already departing this year in an exodus that threatens to deepen a consumer spending slump and hit the housing market.

The number of temporary visa holders in Australia dropped by 260,000 in the first three months of this year, with a further 50,000 departing in the first two weeks of April, Acting Immigration Minister Alan Tudge has revealed.
Pretty sure that's not behind a paywall (as I can keep on accessing it). Anyhow have a read.
 
Tried opening it a few times and it appears to be paywalled. Any chance you could copy paste the text here for us Tayser?
 

As Australia self-isolates from the world, economic recovery hangs in the balance
By George Megalogenis
April 18, 2020 — 12.00am

Australia confronts two uneven paths to recovery from the coronavirus. The first journey starts in a matter of weeks as restrictions on social and economic activity are eased in painstakingly managed steps. The second could be delayed for up to two years as the border remains closed to minimise the risk of a new round of infections from overseas hotspots.

The distance between the two, between the revival of the domestic economy and its reconnection to the global economy through skilled migration and international education, will determine whether Australia avoids a deep, and prolonged recession.
 
3412.0 - Migration, Australia, 2018-19

.2 Net Interstate Migration(a) — 2009-10 to 2018-19
NSW
Vic.
Qld
SA
WA
Tas.
NT
ACT
2009-10
-9,458​
3,314​
6,172​
-2,709​
2,119​
664​
-661​
427​
2010-11
-13,496​
3,534​
6,795​
-2,614​
7,033​
-47​
-2,549​
1,354​
2011-12
-18,115​
2,417​
11,782​
-3,220​
8,609​
-1,925​
-691​
1,145​
2012-13
-14,645​
6,420​
8,874​
-4,761​
5,676​
-1,286​
-481​
202​
2013-14
-6,751​
9,739​
6,294​
-3,890​
-1,724​
-435​
-2,421​
-812​
2014-15
-6,776​
11,079​
6,861​
-4,570​
-4,278​
127​
-2,341​
-103​
2015-16
-11,539​
17,639​
11,986​
-7,212​
-10,010​
760​
-2,029​
383​
2016-17
-15,161​
18,193​
17,795​
-6,778​
-13,934​
1,522​
-2,867​
1,230​
2017-18
-21,672​
14,316​
24,698​
-5,151​
-11,300​
2,382​
-3,831​
558​
2018-19
-22,063​
12,198​
22,831​
-3,958​
-6,451​
2,008​
-4,371​
-194​
Annual average
-13,968
9,885
12,409
-4,486
-2,426
377
-2,224
419
(a) Estimates from 2016-17 onwards are preliminary - see Interstate migration in paragraph 9 of the Explanatory Notes.
 

Businesses and states depending on large population growth are facing a coronavirus shock with the Morrison government expecting a fall of up to 300,000 people moving to Australia over the next two years.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Friday revealed the government expects net overseas migration to fall by 30 per cent in the current financial year before crashing by 85 per cent in 2020-21.

This year's budget had assumed a net 270,000 increase in migration for 2019-20 and just a small drop off the following year. An 85 per cent drop would take net migration down to 40,500, the lowest rate in decades.
see link for the rest of the article.
 

The 50 largest cities in Australia
BY GLENN - THE CENSUS EXPERT · MAY 13, 2020


In this 2020 update of the most popular series of blogs on our website, Glenn goes through the largest urban centres in Australia and provides a population update to June 2019.
Perennially among the most popular blogs at .id are simple population counts. Each year we get an update on where populations are moving, which areas are growing and which are declining. The most popular of all has proved to be the “Top 50 cities” blogs. And here is the June 2019 update of this. Note that Covid-19 is expected to have large impacts on future population growth, predominantly due to subdued overseas migration. These figures of course pre-date this. The populations should be pretty good estimates, but the growth rates in the next couple of years are likely to be lower.
Australia’s Top 50 Cities, June 30th, 2019 (Source: ABS 3218.0, Regional Population Growth, 2018-19)
2019 pop.5 year change1 year change
RankSignificant Urban Areano.No.%No.%
1Sydney 4,914,343451,91310.1%83,9631.7%
2Melbourne 4,893,870575,59813.3%107,8942.3%
3Brisbane 2,430,180225,81910.2%51,4802.2%
4Perth 2,045,479104,5555.4%26,2521.3%
5Adelaide 1,340,79457,0704.4%13,7531.0%
6Gold Coast – Tweed Heads 693,67174,74412.1%14,8632.2%
7Newcastle – Maitland 491,47424,0235.1%5,2981.1%
8Canberra – Queanbeyan 462,13636,2468.5%5,2011.1%
9Sunshine Coast 341,06938,14012.6%7,7242.3%
10Central Coast 335,47013,1604.1%2,1900.7%
11Wollongong 306,03417,1865.9%3,6021.2%
12Geelong 275,79434,36814.2%7,5032.8%
13Hobart 216,68213,4906.6%3,0941.4%
14Townsville 181,6685,9063.4%8990.5%
15Cairns 153,9517,6225.2%1,2820.8%
16Toowoomba 138,2236,8565.2%1,4041.0%
17Darwin 133,3315,6074.4%-1,056-0.8%
18Ballarat 107,6529,5279.7%2,1802.1%
19Bendigo 100,9918,5349.2%1,8691.9%
20Albury – Wodonga 94,8376,8557.8%1,2961.4%
21Launceston 88,1782,6553.1%8230.9%
22Mackay 80,264-1,190-1.5%1350.2%
23Rockhampton 79,081-150.0%5060.6%
24Bunbury 74,5911,9412.7%2430.3%
25Coffs Harbour 72,5413,9615.8%7871.1%
26Melton 72,17715,66127.7%3,4115.0%
27Bundaberg 71,3091,0881.5%4070.6%
28Wagga Wagga 56,6751,6983.1%2980.5%
29Hervey Bay 55,3453,4166.6%6811.2%
30Mildura – Wentworth 52,1761,9803.9%2800.5%
31Shepparton – Mooroopna 52,1042,4725.0%4710.9%
32Port Macquarie 48,7233,4967.7%7931.7%
33Gladstone – Tannum Sands 45,6312160.5%5161.1%
34Tamworth 43,1881,9164.6%3660.9%
35Traralgon – Morwell 42,2491,2503.0%2660.6%
36Orange 40,8041,7634.5%3660.9%
37Bowral – Mittagong 40,4113,0458.1%5591.4%
38Busselton 39,6183,77310.5%7031.8%
39Warragul – Drouin 39,2176,01218.1%1,2923.4%
40Dubbo 38,7672,4446.7%4291.1%
41Nowra – Bomaderry 37,8382,1626.1%4631.2%
42Geraldton 37,255-1,537-4.0%-385-1.0%
43Bathurst 37,1912,3106.6%4291.2%
44Warrnambool 35,5231,4394.2%3060.9%
45Albany 34,3678122.4%1680.5%
46Devonport 30,6296682.2%3351.1%
47Mount Gambier 29,7675892.0%1270.4%
48Kalgoorlie – Boulder 29,326-2,906-9.0%-514-1.7%
49Lismore 28,576-653-2.2%-117-0.4%
50Nelson Bay 28,2761,4045.2%2470.9%
You got through the list!

A few things to point out:

  • As always, this list is based on “Significant Urban Areas”, which is based on an aggregate of SA2s, which contain the continuous urban extent of a city without major gaps. This differs from “Greater Capital Cities” which are used as benchmarks in most of the .id sites, and at the ABS. The latter are defined as broader labour market regions and extend further into rural districts within commuting distance of the capitals.

  • For this reason, Sydney, though it still (just) tops the list, is only about 20,000 larger than Melbourne (#2). This definition of Sydney EXCLUDES the Central Coast (#10 on this list), while the Greater Capital City region INCLUDES it. There are outlying areas excluded from Melbourne as well, such as Melton (#26), but these are smaller. So, by this definition, Melbourne could overtake Sydney as Australia’s largest city by next year!

  • Both Sydney and Melbourne are likely to have their population growth significantly affected by the current border closures due to Covid-19, however, so this may have to wait a little longer. Both cities gain a large amount of population growth from overseas migration, which is currently non-existent
  • Some of the definitions generally are a little odd. Some nearby towns have been grouped together, while others are excluded. For instance, Traralgon and Morwell in Victoria’s Latrobe Valley are considered one Significant Urban Area, but nearby Moe is separate (#76). But these have been consistent for about 10 years now.
  • If you can’t see your place on this list, it’s either outside the top 50, or part of a larger urban area. Eg. the most common question about these lists in the past has been “What about Logan/Ipswich/Redland?”. All those places are included as a part of the contiguous urban area of Brisbane (#3). I’m tipping the Gold Coast to become part of Brisbane by this definition within a few years as well – there is already very little gap there. Or maybe Brisbane will become part of the Gold Coast…
  • Only 4 of the 50 largest urban centres have had population declines in the last year. 46 have had growth. Declining areas are Darwin, Geraldton, Lismore and Kalgoorlie.
  • New South Wales has the greatest number of cities in the list, with 18 all or partly inside NSW (this includes ones like Gold Coast-Tweed and Mildura-Wentworth, where the major part is outside NSW.
Since the last top 50 was done 2 years ago:

  • There are no changes in the composition of the top 50 – the same cities are in there as two years before, and only those minor changes to the order as above. Burnie-Wynyard, Tasmania just misses out at #51.
  • The top 10 is unchanged in composition, but Sunshine Coast and Central Coast have swapped places, with Sunshine Coast moving up to #9 and dropping Central Coast to #10.
  • All other changes in rankings are in the bottom half of the list – Melton (26) overtaking Bundaberg (27), Geraldton has fallen 4 places to #43, overtaken by Dubbo (40), Warragul-Drouin (39) and Nowra (41). Kalgoorlie-Boulder slips behind Devonport and Mount Gambier to #46.
These new Estimated Resident Populations are now represented on profile.id, for Local Government Areas and suburbs/towns. Make sure you’re using the “Population estimates” rather than the Census figures if you need to quote an up-to-date population number. We can also work with you in strategic planning to help understand the impacts of current population trends on your current policies, particularly around youth, ageing, multicultural and population engagement strategies. See our demographic consulting page for more details.
 

"The Australian Bureau of Statistics, in its annual regional population report, said the population of Greater Melbourne had reached 5,078,193 by June 30 last year, an increase of almost 115,000, or 2.3 per cent, over the previous 12 months. Sydney remained the most populous city, growing by 81,833, or 1.6 per cent, to more than 5.3 million.

Since 2014, the nation's population has grown by 1.9 million to 25.4 million. More than 670,000 of those extra residents have called Melbourne home while another 470,000 started living in Sydney. "
 
The ABS released new interstate migration data today for the June 2020 quarter and it makes for some interesting reading:

The ten big takeaway points are:
1. Queensland had the largest increase in net internal migration (+6,750), followed by Tasmania (+387)
2. New South Wales had the largest decrease in net internal migration (-3,955), followed by Victoria (-3,042)
3. Victoria had the biggest change in net internal migration from both the June 2019 quarter (+2,436) and the March 2020 quarter (+590) to the June 2020 quarter (-3,042)
4. New South Wales had a net gain of people from Victoria for the first time since the June 1997 quarter
5. Western Australia's March 2020 and June 2020 quarter net losses (-200) were the lowest since September 2013
6. The Northern Territory's June 2020 quarter net loss (-300) was the lowest since June 2013
7. Brisbane had the largest increase in net internal migration (+3,210), followed by Perth (+413)
8. Melbourne had the largest decrease in net internal migration (-7,957), followed by Sydney (-5,964)
9. Melbourne also had the biggest change in net internal migration from both the June 2019 quarter (+150) and the March 2020 quarter (-2,163) to the June 2020 quarter (-7,957)
10. Adelaide's June 2020 quarter net loss (-200) was the lowest since the March 2006 quarter

These stats, in context:
1. Queensland began closing its border on 26 March 2020, with the strictest closure taking effect from 11 April 2020 through to the end of the June 2020 quarter
2. Melbourne's second wave saw restrictions being re-implemented from 20 June 2020
 
Anecdotal evidence such as continuing high house price growth in Hobart certainly seems to support the stats showing an increase in migration to the Tasmanian Capital away from some of the larger interstate cities. Can't see much in the way of other drivers for the median price rises. Hobart is now more expensive in terms of the median price for a house than Darwin, Adelaide and Perth and is predicted to overtake Brisbane by the end of Q2 next year. Madness really for a city of less than 250,000 people....
 
The ABS released new interstate migration data today for the September 2020 quarter:


The ten big takeaway points are:
1. Queensland had the largest increase in net internal migration (+7,237), followed by Western Australia (+631)
2. New South Wales had the largest loss in net internal migration (-4,110), followed by Victoria (-3,749)
3. Victoria had the biggest change in net internal migration from both the September 2019 quarter (+2,030) and the June 2020 quarter (-3,042) to the September 2020 quarter (-3,749)
4. The net loss in the September 2020 quarter in Victoria was the largest quarterly loss for the state since September 1995
5. The net gain in the September 2020 quarter in Queensland was the largest quarterly gain for the state since December 2017
6. The net gain in the September 2020 quarter in Western Australia was the first quarterly gain for the state since June 2013
7. Brisbane had the largest increase in net internal migration (+3,215), followed by Perth (+1,388
8. Sydney had the largest decrease in net internal migration (-7,782), followed by Melbourne (-7,445)
9. Melbourne also had the biggest change in net internal migration from both the September 2019 quarter (-985) to the September 2020 quarter (-7,445), while Sydney had the biggest change from June 2020 (-6,378) to September 2020 (-7,782)
10. The net loss of people from capital cities in the September quarter (-11,247) was the highest since the ABS began tracking this information in 2001.

These stats, in context:
1. Queensland and Western Australia kept their borders closed to New South Wales and Victoria for much (if not all) of the September 2020 quarter
2. Melbourne's second wave occurred throughout the September 2020 quarter
 
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