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Predictions for 2018

7722 Views 26 Replies 21 Participants Last post by  Master_Builder
December is upon us and so - unbelievably - it is time for our annual showdown of pessimism, optimism and above all alcoholism as we look forward to the New Year with a load of predictions about what the year ahead has in store for Manchester.

Some links to previous predictions threads:

Predictions for 2017
Predictions for 2016
Predictions for 2015
Predictions for 2014
Predictions for 2012
Predictions for 2011
Predictions for 2010
Predictions for 2008

My previous predictions from last year

- More phases of Middlewood Locks will make their way through the planning system and start construction by the end of the year
Phase 2 is approved but not yet under construction, some activity has been spotted on site though

- The masterplan for Gore St, Salford will change and a new planning app will go in.

- Select will start construction on Affinity at New Bailey, and their new student blocks at Circle Square. They will also announce another Affinity project somewhere else in the city.
Correct, and I think the new Embankment West could count as a new development? Not Affinity Living though...

- The tower and buildings around the green at Circle Square will start construction and it'll be a forest of cranes.

- Owen St towers A and D will start to rise and will be absolutely enormous.

- 1 Spinningfields to finish

- X1 will release their "Manchester Waters" proposal and it'll actually be pretty decent
It's ok.

- On a related note, more detailed plans about more apartments at Pomona.

- Metrolink Trafford Park line starts construction.

- More detailed applications for MediaCityUK phase two, and the Market Hall at MCUK will be approved and start construction.

- Media furore over X1 MediaCityUK's tower 1 cladding in December 2016/January 2017 forces X1 to reconsider the designs for Towers 2, 3 and 4, delaying construction of these towers by several months.
Gah. Sadly, no.

- A masterplan released for redevelopment of Ordsall

- A masterplan released for redevelopment of Strangeways
Not released, but a masterplan is being drawn up for the Great Ducie Street area.

- It will be announced that Strangeways prison is moving to a new site near Bury before 2023, allowing for the redevelopment of the Prison site into a museum, which acts as a catalyst for the redevelopment of Strangeways.

- TfGM will release more detailed plans about a new Manchester Metro/Underground network: which runs in a tunnel between Salford Crescent and Ardwick (through the city centre).
No. But more info has been released about their aspirations to construct a rail tunnel through central Manchester.

- The UK government will screw over the North of England in some kind of way
Well, obviously.

- Three new 100m+ skyscrapers will be proposed
Arundel Street, Meadowside tower, Great Jackson Plot E

- A building even taller than Owen St TA and Trinity Islands T1 will be proposed, it will be located around Piccadilly and reach 70 floors/220m.

- Renaker will propose five new projects totalling 2,500 apartments.

- Renaker will release plans for the redevelopment of the Greengate area, which includes office space and two hotels.

- More apartment blocks will be proposed for the Chapel St corridor.

Looks like I was a bit too optimistic in some areas.

Some of your predictions from last year:

The skyline will be peppered with cranes.

- Axis core will rise in Summer

- Groundworks will start Q1 on Circle Square tower and commercial. Core rising in Q2/3.
Groundworks started Q4

- Demo will begin for South Village and St John's Place with construction starting for both by mid 2017
Gah! Will St Johns ever start construction?!? :(

- At least 4 more towers over 100m will be proposed (excl. Trinity)
See three above ^^ but I don't think there's been any more than that

- At least 1 more tower will be over 50 storey (excl. Trinity)

- All the current DeTrafford proposals will start construction totally transforming Castlefield
Not all but most

- Manchester Life Phase 2 will launch
Lampwick and New Little Mill

- NOMA will announce pre-lets for 2 & 3 Angel Square

- River Street will finally complete demo and start construction

- Further Great Jackson Street developments will be announced
Plot E!

- A buyer for Store Street tower will be announced
No, Ballymore are waiting for full detailed HS2 plans to be released before they decide what to do with their asset

- Renaissance Hotel plans will be announced

- Construction will commence on residential towers at New Bailey
Slate Yard?

- Detailed plans will be put in for Boddingtons site
Nearly! Q1 2018

- At least 10 residential towers will all be U/C at once
Depends how you qualify a 'tower'. There are 8 residential 100m+ towers U/C, 11 80m+ towers U/C and 14 residential 60m+ towers U/C.

- Renaker will announce a further 3 projects
Sadly not. Are they ok?

- Select Property will announce a JV with Bruntwood for Oxford Rd Station
I wish!

- X1 will improve the quality of their designs and materials
.... TBC

- Landmark will start construction

- At least 5 office blocks will be announced for Circle Square, NOMA, Greengate, Sky Park (Manchester Central) and New Bailey
Two at Circle Square but I think we already knew about those, one at Sky Park and Two New Bailey.

- 125 Deansgate will start construction

After thirty years a Messiah will emerge from the East (Dukinfield). He will smite the sinners, restore order, and usher in a New Kingdom of well-designed buildings and appropriately planned public transport. He will also bring more litter bins.

Spot on.

Manchester Confidential will still be begging for a decent witty, erudite columnist from north Manchester as long as its a cash in hand job and he/she can continue with their multiple meaning moniker.;)
Have they not called you up yet Heaton?

Burnham will win the Mayoral election, but by a smaller margin than expected. His ascension and that of Roney and whoever is GM chief ex (we can easily guess that one) will fundamentally alter the politico-economic debate in the city region.
I think Burnham won by as much as people were expecting him to in the end

2CC will start and within a month it will feel that it has always been there.
Spot on :cheers:

- Planning App for GJS Plot C, with changes to the 2015 masterplan.
Yes and yes

- Planning for a 240m tower to be revealed.
Not yet but lots of background rumours!

Planning Apps for Angel Meadow.

- St Michael's rejected.

- New pans for First Street, to include a 40+ storey tower.
No :(

And the winner is: Master Builder!

I'll do my predictions in the coming weeks

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Still a whole month left to turn some of those No's around!
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Still a whole month left to turn some of those No's around!
I was just thinking the same! 70 storey proposal reveal would be a lovely christmas present
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Hmm, I’m usually not very good at these. But in order of what I think is most likely to least likely...

GM Housing Deal announced.

GMCA and HM Treasury agree another new devolution deal. Bonus points for me if it focuses on welfare/benefits and education/skills.

Detailed plans and renders brought forward for High Street redevelopment(s).

Manchester Piccadilly platforms 15/16 kicked into the long grass.

TfGM publishes initial bus franchising proposals. Bonus points if TfGM proposes to trial franchising on limited routes and corridors, enhanced partnerships on some others, and initially to leave large parts of the network unfranchised.

Channel 4 commits to Birmingham move.

Manchester City win the Champions League.

Manchester’s tallest building is proposed.

Arndale Tower exterior refurbishment.

Government announces that a national agency, or part of a Government Department, will be relocated to Manchester.
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Manchester will be revealed as a sophisticated computer simulation populated by tourists from the 37th century desiring to discover what life in an ancient English city was really like. It turns out that Whalley Range is just a corrupted piece of code and not an actual suburb.
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  • Despite all the doom and gloom Manchester will still continue to thrive and have it's busiest year with both proposals and construction.
  • New Cross / N.O.M.A will be buzzing with beautiful developments under construction and planned. It will be the most upcoming area of Manchester.
  • Meadow Side will break ground and be a huge success meaning all phases get build sooner than planned.
  • Angel Gardens cladding will appear and look great.
  • Hanover House will be completely transformed and go down as one of the best refurbishments in Manchester history.
  • Middlewood Locks phase 2 will be start construction and be a little more ambitious.
  • We will see underwhelming renders of the Renaissance / Premier House in terms of height and quality but, they won't go anywhere anyway. This time next year the developers will still messing about.
  • Circle Square Hotel, Motel One at St. Peters Square, New Victoria Development and Unite Tower will all start construction. Everybody will continue to moan and be negative.
  • The better developments including St Johns & Whitworth street will officially be under construction.
  • Oxygen Tower will look huge and loom over the area. (2019 predications in will look like 70's crap)
  • Chester's Road / Ellesmere Street area will be hiving with activity pushing the city out even further. Arundel Street tower will however either change or be scaled down.
  • Found Space won't start and goes quiet.
  • Trinity Islands & Mayfair will remain quiet. Trinity being cancelled but not publicly announced.
  • St Michael's will hit further problems and the site will be sold to another developer.
  • Ordsall Lane and Salford Quays to continue to boom with many new developments announced.
  • More cranes heading to Great Jackson Street area with Owen Street towers having neighbours under construction.
  • More large scale developments on unexpected smaller plots like Axis.
  • Sites like Campanile hotel, Snooker centre on Park Street & the Renault garage on Trinity Way to be sold to developers.
  • A major company/brand relocates to Manchester which is huge for the economy.
  • A intentional 5 star hotel operators announces plans for their only hotel in the U.K outside London.
  • More direct flights to Asia announced with Shanghai being confirmed.
  • Another 100m+ tower planned for Greengate.
  • At least 6 100m+ towers planned across the city.
  • The Crane Count will break it's 63 record.
  • And lastly, that rumoured 250m+ tower will be announced.
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My predictions for 2017:-

A6MARR will open - and a traffic jam will ensue at the Hazel Grove End in all three directions rightfully increasing clammer for A6M60RR segment
Nope - move this one forward to 2018

The first attempts to execute against GMSF housing plans will find themselves under a legal challenge
No movement...

Sheffield/Rotherham Tram Train will be delayed another 12 months keeping Marple Tram Train STILL 10 years away or more
Got that one right I think

Construction on City's North Stand expansion will have started

Have no view on buildings, tall or otherwise in City Centre
1 out of 4 last year... not going to spout anything about 2018
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Manchester Piccadilly platforms 15/16 kicked into the long grass.
You beat me to it - similar fate for Oxford Road platform extensions.
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My predictions

- Cladding will commence on Axis and surprise all of us

- Groundworks will start Q1 on MeadowSide with the tower starting Q3

- Demo will begin for South Village and St John's Place with construction starting for both by mid 2018

- At least 5 more towers over 100m will be proposed

- At least 2 more tower will be over 50 storey

- At least 1 tower over 200m will be proposed

- The Renaissance app will be proposed by Q2 and approved the same year

- All the current DeTrafford proposals will start construction. The final Manchester Gardens apps will be submitted

- Old Brewery Gardens (Boddingtons) app will be submitted and approved

- Renaker will submit applications for a further 3 sites including Crown Street (plot C)

- Manchester Life Phase 2 commence construction and Phase 3 will launch

- NOMA will announce pre-lets for 2 & 3 Angel Square

- River Street will finally complete demo and start construction

- Further Great Jackson Street developments will be announced

- A buyer for Store Street tower will be announced

- Applications for further New Bailey residential blocks will be submitted

- At least 20 residential towers (over 100m) will all be U/C at once

- We will break 63 cranes on the skyline

- Select Property will announce further properties within Manchester

- MAKE will announce their office block for New Bailey

- Found Space will continue however it may be pushed back a year

- Urban Splash will announce plans for a collection of towers

- Mulbury will announce a further 2 projects. At least one of these will be in New Cross.

- Tim Groom will dazzle us with more of his designs.

- Middlewood Locks will announces plans for phase 3 & 4

- Factory will eventually start pushing the open date back to 2021

- Proposals for Portugal Street East will be submitted

- Solid proposals for Water Street will be submitted

- Little Peter Street proposals will be announced by an unknown (to Manchester) architect

- The tower phase for Piccadilly Basin will be announced

- Bruntwood will announce a masterplan for Oxford Rd station

- Glenn Howells will be chosen to design the Island office block

Should I think of anything else I'll add. Thinks thats enough for now though.
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Renaker will announce yet another TALL tower nearby to one of it's current builds with the cladding having a slight resemblance to the Tower of Mordor. After having names such as Water Street Project and Owen Street Project, they will call it the Alan Parsons Project but it will be fondly known as the Eye In The Sky.

Watch this space!
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I'm going for a slightly more negative vibe this time, as a lot of my predictions from last year didn't come to fruition.

- There will be a slow down in the number of residential applications made in Manchester. It will still carry on increasing, but not at the rate we've been used to recently. A few of the current proposals from smaller developers will fall through the cracks and will be cancelled. The larger projects will go ahead but there won't be many more new large-scale residential proposals until the early 2020s now

- There will be a boom in student accommodation applications, with several large-scale applications being put in around summer-autumn time. These will be of varying (sometimes questionable) quality, in classic student accommodation fashion.

- There will be a few more office proposals launched, some of which will be quite large scale. Meanwhile, average prime central Manchester rents will hit £36/sqft as demand strangles supply

- HMRC will announce their new Manchester base and it will be at Angel Square.

- The Portland St framework masterplan will be released and it'll be an ambitious masterplan which will look at mending the streetscape in that area and encouraging footfall from Piccadilly Gardens all the way down to Whitworth St and Circle Square

- Piccadilly Gardens, Market St, High St and the Arndale will continue to be shit.

- The plans for that dire office block on High St will be ok.

- (Wishful thinking) a city centre-wide landscaping plan will be launched which will look into a holistic vision for improving pedestrian priority and public spaces across the city centre.

- Andy Burnham and TfGM will work more closely to make public transport in Manchester better

- It will rain a lot, in classic Manchester form

- Summer will be on a Thursday

- There will be many new hotel applications, a lot of these will be 3-star but there will be some 4-star applications and two new 5-star boutique hotels (akin to King St townhouse), and these will involve conversions of existing buildings

- Like Andrew, I predict the crane count will burst through 63 this year - helped along by Circle Square

- Renaker will submit a planning application for their Crown St site

- Not including the above, there will be one other 100m+ tower proposed for the city and it will be in Salford

- New Cross will continue to fill up, and we'll see plans for the Northern Gateway proposals (and Gould St) which will both see detailed planning applications submitted by the end of the year

- Cornbrook Hub will see planning applications

- X1 will start construction on their Manchester Waters scheme, but there will be no other proposals at Pomona in 2018
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Here's mine, I suspect they'll be super popular:

Metrolink will run down Oxford/Wilmslow Rd. It will of course be in a tunnel most of its length.

Metrolink will also then go and buy 100 low-floor 4-carriage trams. And 100 tram-trains.

The Arndale will be demolished and be replaced by a big park.

Somebody else will like a building Keith likes.

De Trafford will actually finish something

Theresa May will make Brexit an enormous success and still be PM
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Planning app for the plot to the right of Warehaus.

Fresh plans for the Union Bank site in Piccadilly to be revealed.

New plans for St Johns tower to be unveiled with a new height exceeding 190m.

A new planning application for another Greengate tower besides Residence.

At least 2 new planning applications for Pomona Island.

Plans for demo of Phoenix House on Ellesmere Street to be replaced with residential scheme.

Planning app for a large residential scheme on the two plots either side of Sidney St Salford.

Bridgewater Wharf to commence construction.

Plans for the Crescent Pub, not sure what.

Plans to refurbish and extend the Angel Pub.

Enabling works to have been completed for St Michael's.

Beaumont Morgan to reveal an additional scheme along Adelphi St.

And last but not least, plans for a 220m tower in Spinningfields to be revealed.
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Oh and Moda Living to announce another huge scheme in Manchester.
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MB the 220m, I don't think there are any plots left in Spinningfields are there?
All Rise's cousin's neighbour's co-worker to be mugged at spice point by a tattooed toddler in broad daylight on Market Street
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MB the 220m, I don't think there are any plots left in Spinningfields are there?
Good point, may be more 'around' Spinningfields. Somewhere like Bridge St.
Will this Piccadilly eye sore get sorted in 2018?

Can anyone help?

We all love new buildings but this embarrassment for the city centre cannot go on...

Just emailed Richard Leese about it...
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