[wowsim]

From the Australian:

Queensland, beautiful one day, overpriced the next
Anthony Klan
May 11, 2005
SYDNEY and Melbourne buyers in search of cheaper housing are abandoning Queensland in droves, forcing a slump in what has been the nation's hottest market and prompting fears of a glut of new properties.

Just weeks after Brisbane exceeded Melbourne's median house price, data for the March quarter shows prices have fallen 3 per cent - the biggest fall in more than a decade.

The median house price in Brisbane had been $357,750 before the recent fall, compared to Melbourne's $352,000.

Migration to Queensland fell by 14 per cent to 53,500 in the year to September, Australian Bureau of Statistics figures show.

Michael Matusik of Matusik Property Insights said that although Queensland still recorded the strongest migration growth in the country, growth levels would fall further as fewer people moved to southeast Queensland from the southern capitals due to rising housing prices.

"Victoria remains the second fastest growing state fuelled by an increasing share of overseas migrants and now migrants returning home from a stint in Queensland," Mr Matusik said.

"People feel that whilst interest rates have risen a little bit, they can get into the southern housing markets a little easier than they could in 2002 and 2003 when migration to southeast Queensland peaked."

According to the Real Estate Institute of Victoria, Melbourne house values fell 4.9 per cent in the March quarter.

Sydney apartment prices fell by 8 per cent in the year to April, according to CPM Research.

Real Estate Institute of Queensland research manager Fiona Bergin said the slowing population growth could cause problems for some developers.

According to PRDnationwide, sales of inner-city apartments in Brisbane hit their lowest level in six years in the March quarter.

However, Ms Bergin said house rental vacancy rates were a low 1.66 per cent for Brisbane in the March quarter. This would put a floor under Brisbane house prices, she said.

Mr Matusik said some southeast projects had been put on hold or abandoned which would also help ease supply.

Since the end of the property boom, developers have abandoned plans to develop more than 7000 apartments across the country.

However, there are still more than 10,000 apartments under construction and expected to be completed in Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne and the Gold Coast in the next 12 months.

 

[Malt]

The prices will drop again. (Ive seen 2 or more articles talking about the market 'softening')

It is to be expected with so many people coming. But we wll have a short break, they will drop again, and the immigration will pick up.

thats my view at least.

 

[Maroon Grown]

i knew this would happen.. 50million buildings go up in brisbane and theres now no one to fill them. this would put some projects on hold wouldnt it. eg panorama sky and maybe even vision?????

 

[nikko]

Journalists aren't Statisticians. The Courier Mail was running a similar story on the weekend.

median prices are dependant on a number of things and quaterly statements aren't really a sure-fire way of determining the state of the market.

 

[GMAC]

I guess it was to be expected and I can understand that people from Melbourne are less likely to stay here or come in the first place now, but I find it hard to believe that immigration from NSW will slow that much. I still know plenty of people who are looking at moving to Qld from NSW for reasons other than the property market, such as the lower cost of living and the lifestyle which many people prefer(thats not to say all people).

I would be surprised if alot of the apartment towers, especially those in Petrie Bight get off the ground over the next couple of years, and Im really not confident that Panorama Sky is ever going to happen, even though there is talk of ground works happening. I do hope sales for Vision go well, and given the stature of the building it shouldnt be a problem but I guess we will just have to wait and see.

 

[JayT]

Awsome find Wowsim!

The median house price in Brisbane had been $357,750 before the recent fall, compared to Melbourne's $352,000.

^^^
LOL - I can see an argument starting here, some people arn't going to want to believe that :runaway:

(Back again) - on another note, its a serious problem this overpricing of real estate when you consider that the Gold and Sunshine Coasts have a much higher median house price than Brisbane, so its not like you can just move further out of the city like in other capitals. Median metro SEQ house prices are much higher than Brisbane.

Only Ipswich is cheap now - this could be how they get people to move into the western corridor.

jt

 

[CHapmaN]

lol at all the QLD ppl jumping in and arguing with the article (not trying to be mean fellas just look funny )

as long as vision and skyline still go ahead i dont care if growth slows.

however wouldnt falling house prices mean there will be a period of slowed growth and then when house prices have fallen growth will increase again?

 

[rob_]

its great news for Queensland, the last thing the state needs is more old people. lets face it as the population gets older (my self included in 50 years) younger generation will have to support it financially. and the federal does not fund hospitals etc, state tax payers do. better to have older population spread equally through out all the states, so there is more of an equal burden.

 

[tayser]

if it dips below 50k a year, Beattie has absolutely no amunition to keep bitching bout poor arse Queensland not being able to cope with its own high growth policies!

re: rob's point, the latest person I know who's headed north has been a retiree (retired at 43 - owns about 3 properties on the Gold Coast alone!) who lived in Sydney for 15 years, originally from Melbourne. One of those sun lovers whose skin is practically charcoal and like leather :lol:

 

[JayT]

its great news for Queensland, the last thing the state needs is more old people. lets face it as the population gets older (my self included in 50 years) younger generation will have to support it financially. and the federal does not fund hospitals etc, state tax payers do. better to have older population spread equally through out all the states, so there is more of an equal burden.

Yes but even with the perceived amount of older people moving to Queensland we will still have a much younger population than the Southern States well into the middle of this century. Yes they do move here to Live but they move back south to get old, sick and die with family.

jt

 

[wowsim]

Care to back that up with anything? coz everything i've never read anything that indicates that...

 

[JayT]

Care to back that up with anything? coz everything i've never read anything that indicates that...

Well its common knowledge that old people move south to be with family to die.

Here is the age differences between states - as you can see the southern states will have many more 65's and over as a percentage of their populations than Queensland and WA will - we will remain young

http://www.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/[email protected]/94713ad445ff1425ca25682000192af2/811fa95a2d0b898dca256bcd00825566!OpenDocument

jt

 

[wowsim]

Right....common knowledge. I could also say its common knowledge that Melbourne downtown is far busier and more happening that Brisbane's, but you and I know that isnt true is it JayT?

 

[wowsim]

Here you go JayT, straight from the horses mouth, the 85yo and older age bracket is booming in QLD, growing alot faster than it is in NSW and VIC.

"Queensland, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory are all projected to experience large increases in their populations aged 85 years and over. In these states this age group is projected to be between seven and fifteen times larger in 2051. However, New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, being the most populous states, remain the states with the largest number of people aged 85 years and over. By 2051, New South Wales is projected to have between 488,000 and 815,700 people in this age group, which is a five to eightfold increase on 2002. Victoria is projected to have between 383,600 and 634,500 people aged 85 years and over (a five to ninefold increase), while Queensland is projected to have between 340,200 and 647,800 people in this age group (a seven to fourteenfold increase)."

Pretty much the same story for 65+
"Some of the highest relative increases are projected for the Northern Territory, Queensland, the Australian Capital Territory and Western Australia, where the populations aged 65 years and over are projected to at least triple in size by 2051."



http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/94713ad445ff1425ca25682000192af2/95560b5d7449b135ca256e9e001fd879!OpenDocument

 

[Malt]

Wowism,

QLD and WA have the youngest populations in Australia.
I really cant be F****d finding the info posted ages ago, but anyone who reads enough threads will remember it. Had graphs and all.

QLD and WA are both like 33-35 or something. (average), the rest are far older.

 

[wowsim]

Well i don't know about average age....as far as i know the ABS only provides median. Which are NSW: 36.4, VIC: 36.2, SA: 38.2, QLD: 35.5, WA: 35.5 TAS: 38.1, ACT: 33.8 and NT: 30.3
Not much of a difference is there...?
Also doesnt change the fact that the older demographic groups are increasing at a faster rate than in Vic and NSW...

 

[Malt]

Using the (slightly old yes) ABS Regional Profiles on Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne...(I would use QLD, VIC, and NSW, but i dont have those one ssaved on my computer lol)

The groups are as such (in %)

Brisbane:
Under 14 Years: 20.4%
15 to 44 Years: 45.5%
45 to 64 Years: 23.0%
Over 65 Years: 10.8%

Melbourne:
Under 14 Years: 19.1%
15 to 44 Years: 45.6%
45 to 64 Years: 22.8%
Over 65 Years: 12.4%

Sydney:
Under 14 Years: 19.5%
15 to 44 Years: 45.8%
45 to 64 Years: 22.6%
Over 65 Years: 11.9%

Perth:
Under 14 Years: 19.7%
15 to 44 Years: 44.9%
45 to 64 Years: 23.4%
Over 65 Years: 11.4%

Adelaide:
Under 14 Years: 18.2%
15 to 44 Years: 42.8%
45 to 64 Years: 24.0%
Over 65 Years: 14.8%


Brisbane
Melbourne
Sydney
Perth
Adelaide

Highest Amount -- -- -- -- Lowest Amount

Under 14 Years: 20.4%, 19.7%, 19.5%, 19.1%, 18.2%
15 to 44 Years: 45.8%, 45.6%, 45.5%, 44.9%, 42.8%
45 to 64 Years: 24.0%, 23.4%, 23.0%, 22.8%, 22.6%
Over 65 Years: 14.8%, 12.4%, 11.9%, 11.4%, 10.8%


____________________________________________________________

Look at the colour patterns in the last little thing i did up (which took a while)

Brisbane (QLD) Clearly hasa diagonal line shape going from having MOST young people, down to the least old people...


If you wish to check these stats get the 2002 regional profiles off ABS

 

[jellyman]

Yay I'm an average Queenslander. I'm so young and sexy and hip and happening. My age is 35 years and 6 months.

I'm so glad I'm not one of those horrible boring old Victorians who are just waiting around wasting time and waiting to die. Imagine being all of 36 years and 3 months old. I shudder just to think.

 

[Orfeo]

Well i don't know about average age....as far as i know the ABS only provides median. Which are NSW: 36.4, VIC: 36.2, SA: 38.2, QLD: 35.5, WA: 35.5 TAS: 38.1, ACT: 33.8 and NT: 30.3
Not much of a difference is there...?
Also doesnt change the fact that the older demographic groups are increasing at a faster rate than in Vic and NSW...

what you didn't take into account was the growth in the younger demographic groups....which are growing faster. Thus, it more than cancels out.

You can see this in the abs page you reference previously....

0-14 in 2051

Vic: 13.6%
Qld: 14.3%

Over 60

Vic: 27.3%
Qld: 26.8%

So, Qlder's will still be younger regardless.....

 

[Malt]

As proved here, QLD is a younger state than VIC and NSW.


Not that it makes all that much difference when it comes down to it (1-3%).
You just need to get the old stereotype out of your head lol. QLD is no Florida