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With SAA all but abandoning the domestic market from next month, how big a percentage drop do you foresee at the airport passenger stats?

I imagine it wont be pretty. And coupled with whispers that Mango will abandon their Lanseria flights after April (per Avcom), things look grim for the foreseeable future.
 

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Annman
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^^ The sad thing is, and I don't like saying it... I've been sorrowfully waiting for aviation PAX numbers to catch up to the malaise in the economy. We can't have this weak of growth for this long without eventually seeing a correction in our passenger numbers. SAA is the first casualty due to their extreme mismanagement.
 

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I don't think it will necessarily be too grim...some of that HLA capacity has been moved over to JNB. The market being with over-supply of seats might actually just be rightsizing somewhat now.
In the domestic market FlySafair gradually continues increasing their schedules, so perhaps PLZ and ELS won't be hurt too much.
Of the regional and international routes there's several mentions of other carriers taking up some of the capacity.
On the short term yes we'll probably be seeing some drops, but within a year it should make it up again.
 

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Despite some SAA flight cancellations in the last 2 weeks of January passenger figures showed the highest growth rates we've seen in some time. All the smaller airports posted double digit increases and CPT passed the 11m mark and had its highest number of international pax ever.



 

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At all three international airports it looks like the Regional traffic (Namibia, Botswana, Lesotho, Swaziland) is actually a problem, decreasing at all 3 airports and thus dragging their total international figures down. ie: at JNB international excluding regional is up 4496, while regional is down 3829.
 

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Discussion Starter #769
The two new stands, the additional retail they did with the reconfigured domestic departures and the coming addition of loads more self check and bag drop facilities. They will squeeze more in. What will need enhancement that does not seem to have plans yet is increased security space.

I can't see physical terminal expansion happening in the next 5 years
 

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The one time SA is lucky for our poor connectivity with China. Some Asian airports are facing 20-30% decline YoY in passenger numbers if this virus continues much longer.
 

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Discussion Starter #771
The one time SA is lucky for our poor connectivity with China. Some Asian airports are facing 20-30% decline YoY in passenger numbers if this virus continues much longer.
Not just Asia. Flights from Europe to the US have also been slashed, front of the planes are empty and bargain seats can be found everywhere.
 

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The two new stands, the additional retail they did with the reconfigured domestic departures and the coming addition of loads more self check and bag drop facilities. They will squeeze more in. What will need enhancement that does not seem to have plans yet is increased security space.

I can't see physical terminal expansion happening in the next 5 years
I think I read somewhere that the trigger volume for terminal expansion is at 7-7.5m per annum?
 

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February has the last decent figures we'll be seeing for a while. However the 12 month figures (ACSA's year end) really are pretty good, all things considered. I think April is only going to be the repatriation flights - which a day or two ago numbered less than 14 000 across all airports.

FEBRUARY 2020TotalDomesticInternational
JohannesburgJNB
1 613 487​
1.7%​
937 021​
5.9%​
671 898​
-3.5%​
Cape TownCPT
960 041​
7.4%​
701 097​
7.6%​
257 742​
6.9%​
DurbanDUR
487 468​
7.9%​
459 630​
8.4%​
27 393​
0.3%​
Port ElizabethPLZ
134 008​
2.0%​
East LondonELS
71 844​
9.7%​
GeorgeGRJ
68 204​
9.3%​
BloemfonteinBFN
30 955​
4.6%​
KimberleyKIM
13 155​
-6.8%​

MARCH 2020TotalDomesticInternational
JohannesburgJNB
1 017 363​
-46.1%​
596 894​
-43.4%​
416 931​
-49.6%​
Cape TownCPT
627 088​
-39.6%​
456 692​
-41.0%​
169 130​
-35.9%​
DurbanDUR
321 091​
-42.3%​
303 075​
-41.7%​
17 473​
-50.8%​
Port ElizabethPLZ
94 455​
-40.7%​
East LondonELS
51 461​
-36.9%​
GeorgeGRJ
48 569​
-33.7%​
BloemfonteinBFN
19 849​
-38.2%​
KimberleyKIM
8 074​
-47.3%​


APR'19-MAR'20TotalDomesticInternational
JohannesburgJNB
20 903 566​
-1.9%​
11 213 778​
0.2%​
9 617 207​
-4.3%​
Cape TownCPT
10 688 798​
-1.2%​
8 137 246​
-0.9%​
2 540 224​
-2.4%​
DurbanDUR
6 099 628​
1.8%​
5 699 080​
1.7%​
393 309​
2.6%​
Port ElizabethPLZ
1 689 914​
0.0%​
East LondonELS
916 192​
9.0%​
GeorgeGRJ
830 118​
-0.7%​
BloemfonteinBFN
357 391​
0.7%​
KimberleyKIM
153 913​
-4.5%​
 

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Here's our airports under lockdown :oops:

APR 2020TotalDomesticInternational
JohannesburgJNB
11 675​
-99.36%​
0​
-100.0%​
1 069​
-99.87%​
Cape TownCPT
8 036​
-99.13%​
0​
-100.0%​
46​
-99.98%​
DurbanDUR
163​
-99.97%​
0​
-100.0%​
0​
-100.0%​
Port ElizabethPLZ
10​
-99.99%​
East LondonELS
0​
-100.00%​
GeorgeGRJ
125​
-99.81%​
BloemfonteinBFN
10​
-99.97%​
KimberleyKIM
65​
-99.51%​


MAY'19-APR'20TotalDomesticInternational
JohannesburgJNB
19 102 601​
-10.6%​
10 243 250​
-8.9%​
8 782 663​
-12.7%​
Cape TownCPT
9 768 484​
-10.1%​
7 415 622​
-10.0%​
2 334 482​
-10.7%​
DurbanDUR
5 584 541​
-7.0%​
5 216 879​
-7.1%​
360 789​
-5.5%​
Port ElizabethPLZ
1 539 242​
-9.0%​
East LondonELS
837 065​
-1.5%​
GeorgeGRJ
762 822​
-7.8%​
BloemfonteinBFN
328 025​
-7.3%​
KimberleyKIM
140 710​
-13.1%​
 

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As can be expected passenger traffic was virtually non-existent in May

MAY 2020
Total​
JohannesburgJNB
8 079​
-99,51%​
Cape TownCPT
1 739​
-99,78%​
DurbanDUR
78​
-99,98%​
Port ElizabethPLZ
27​
-99,98%​
East LondonELS
0​
-100,00%​
GeorgeGRJ
170​
-99,73%​
BloemfonteinBFN
0​
-100,00%​
KimberleyKIM
46​
-99,66%​

JUN'19-MAY'20
Total​
Domestic​
International​
JohannesburgJNB
17 449 700​
-18,3%​
9 360 621​
-16,7%​
8 010 548​
-20,3%​
Cape TownCPT
8 997 078​
-17,0%​
6 805 911​
-17,1%​
2 171 860​
-17,2%​
DurbanDUR
5 121 819​
-14,7%​
4 778 847​
-14,9%​
336 467​
-11,0%​
Port ElizabethPLZ
1 417 349​
-16,2%​
East LondonELS
766 884​
-10,4%​
GeorgeGRJ
699 160​
-15,4%​
BloemfonteinBFN
298 379​
-15,2%​
KimberleyKIM
127 191​
-21,5%​
 
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