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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Southern Poupulation Booms Into The Future.
Census releases new 25 year info.
What is your states estimats?
 

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Discussion Starter · #2 · (Edited)
Texas is expecting 12 million extra by 2030
Georgia is expecting 4 million extra by 2030


http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=sto...spopulationboom
Thu Apr 21, 6:02 PM ET
Texas is expected to gain more than 12 million people by 2030 to continue ranking as the nation's second most populous state. New census projections indicate the state's population should increase by almost 60 percent between 2000 and 2030. The Census Bureau said that would make Texas the fourth fastest-growing state in the country, behind Nevada, Arizona and Florida. Only California is predicted to have more people than Texas within 25 years while Florida is projected to replace New York at number three. Texas' population was 20.9 million as of the 2000 census and was estimated at 22.5 million last year. The reasons for Texas' population increase? State demographer Steve Murdock points to its high birthrate and migration.

http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2005/04/22/news/state/22_12_204_21_05.txt

"Florida, Texas, North Carolina and Georgia are also expected to be among the 10 fastest-growing states. The projected national average growth rate during the period is 29 percent."

http://www.macon.com/mld/macon/news/local/11446338.htm
"Georgia will add another 3.8 million people in the next 25 years, putting the state's population over 12 million and launching Georgia past Ohio and New Jersey in population, according to the latest estimate from the U.S. Census Bureau. Georgia will be the nation's eighth most populous state by 2030, according to the estimate released today. Georgia ranked 10th in 2000. The growth will be enough to give Georgia one more seat in Congress, to 14."
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 · (Edited)
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20050421/ts_nm/economy_usa_population_dc_1
Graying U.S. Population to Keep Moving South, West

Thu Apr 21, 6:33 PM ET Top Stories - Reuters


By David Lawder

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A rapidly graying U.S. population will continue migrating to the South and West, the Census Bureau said on Thursday, with Florida, California and Texas making up nearly half of total U.S. population growth between 2000 and 2030.



In new projections, the bureau said Florida, now the 4th most populous state, would edge past New York into 3rd place by 2011, while California and Texas would continue to rank 1st and 2nd, respectively, in 2030.


The three states will each gain more than 12 million people, or 46 percent of total U.S. population growth during the period. Rounding out the top five gainers will be Arizona, with 5.6 million more people, and North Carolina, with 4.2 million.

For policy-makers the projections also underscore the coming strains on Social Security and other services as populations age rapidly.


Some 29 states will have populations that are 20 percent 65 and older in 2030. The highest percentage among any in 2000 was Florida, with 17.6 percent.


The data confirms that the U.S. population was "still growing, it's getting older, it's getting more diverse and it's moving ... South and West," said Gregory Spencer, chief of the Census Bureau's U.S. population projections branch.


As the oldest baby boomers reach 65 in 2011, the bureau projects that the number of people aged 65 and older will grow faster than the total population in every state. In fact, 26 states were projected to double their 65-and-older populations between 2000 and 2030.


And in 2030, 10 states will have more people 65 and older than under 18: Delaware, Florida, Maine, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming.


"It's becoming immediate enough to worry politicians," Spencer said.


Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan on Thursday warned in a Senate Budget Committee hearing that the United States was probably "locked into the arithmetic" of imminent population aging, and any adjustments to Social Security benefits should be made quickly.


"In my judgment, it is far easier to come to grips with these issues before the baby boom generation starts to retire in large numbers," he said.


The projections indicate that the five fastest-growing states between 2000 and 2030 would be Nevada, at 114 percent over the period, Arizona at 109 percent, Florida at 80 percent, Texas at 60 percent and Utah at 56 percent.


The South and West's share of U.S. population will increase to 65 percent in 2030 from 58 percent in 2000, while the Northeast and Midwest's share will fall to 35 percent from 42 percent.
 

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Census Bureau forecasts continued rapid growth in N.C.

http://www.news-record.com/news/now/nccensus_042105.htm
4-21-05

RALEIGH (AP) — North Carolina's 35-year boom will continue for at least another 25 years, with the state's population estimated to grow 52 percent to 12.2 million by 2030, according to U.S. Census Bureau projections released Thursday.

North Carolina and its Southeast neighbors are projected to be the most dynamic part of the country in the next quarter-century, and the South overall — a region stretching from Delaware and Florida to Texas — is expected to be home to nearly four out of 10 Americans by 2030.

"North Carolina, compared to some states, has been extremely blessed. We have been growing steadily. We've had constant growth since 1970. We haven't had a single year in which we've lost population," said state demographer William Tillman, who works in the Office of State Budget and Management.

He noted that growth in North Carolina's urban centers likely will be accompanied by continued population decreases in poorer, rural parts of the state.

Growth is also expected to give North Carolina added political weight. If the bureau's national projections play out as expected, North Carolina would have an additional two seats in the U.S. House of Representatives following the 2030 census — 15, up from the current 13.

If North Carolina and other states grow and shrink as the Census Bureau expects, North Carolina would have the nation's seventh-highest population among states by 2030, up from 11th in 2000. Michigan and New Jersey are projected to drop out of the top 10.
 

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So I would assume Charlotte would be 4 million, Raleigh - Durham 3 million, Greensboro - Winston Salem would be 2 million & the other 3 million would be elsewhere.

Georgia - either the trend continues & Atlanta will be ridicolously huge or the smaller metros will catch up. I would like to think Savannah or some other metro, perhaps Macon will hit 1 million. But Atlanta (or at this point North Georgia) may possibly be 8 million - considering Atlanta is growing at a rate of 1 million every 10 years I suppose it isn't too unrealistic.

Nonetheless, exyank - even in the case of a metro, how large will these metros be or will these cities densify, which including Atlanta's case - they will have to densify. Though at that point there will be 'officially' a megalopolis in NC/SC ranging from Raleigh to Greenville SC.

The other option - the sunbelt streak halts due to oil prices & natural resource depletion.
 

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TheBrad said:
So I would assume Charlotte would be 4 million, Raleigh - Durham 3 million, Greensboro - Winston Salem would be 2 million & the other 3 million would be elsewhere.

Georgia - either the trend continues & Atlanta will be ridicolously huge or the smaller metros will catch up. I would like to think Savannah or some other metro, perhaps Macon will hit 1 million. But Atlanta (or at this point North Georgia) may possibly be 8 million - considering Atlanta is growing at a rate of 1 million every 10 years I suppose it isn't too unrealistic.

Nonetheless, exyank - even in the case of a metro, how large will these metros be or will these cities densify, which including Atlanta's case - they will have to densify. Though at that point there will be 'officially' a megalopolis in NC/SC ranging from Raleigh to Greenville SC.

The other option - the sunbelt streak halts due to oil prices & natural resource depletion.
Macon and Savannah reaching 1 million is a stretch. If any metro outside Atlanta would hit 1 million, it would be Columbus and Augusta.
 

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I realize it's a stretch - by growth rates Dalton GA stands a better shot. Savannah & Macon have a greater potential - Savannah as a sea port & current growth occuring along the coast & Macon has a geographic advantage being the southern entry into Atlanta from Florida.

I would theorize once Atlanta does reach a certain level of population & sprawl develops along the periphery of Chattanooga, Macon & Columbus. But I understand you are a big supporter of Columbus & have strong opinions that Columbus will grow in the future - but I'm not as positive.
 

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Apparently, all the census did was take current growth rates and project them out to 2030. In other words, the projection is strictly a mathematical model that doesn't account for any future economic and other trends.

"The projections were produced for each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia by age and sex for the years 2001 to 2030, based on Census 2000 results, and the general assumption that recent state-specific trends in fertility, mortality, domestic migration, and international migration will continue."

http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/projectionsagesex.html
 

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The figures showing South Carolina will only grow 1.1M in 30 years are very low. We've grown 1.45M in the last 30 years, about 55%. I see no reason why that would slow down in the next 30 years.
 

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Regardless of how the data is obtained, the numbers seem pretty bleak to me. The segment of the population that is growing will be more of a burden on the system (middle class, college educated people aren't driving the growth rates). Urban poverty rates will increase, Medicare roles will grow, an aging population will create new strains. Look for K-12 and state supported university systems to implode. Pollution and traffic will ruin the standard of living that we in the SE have enjoyed. No SE state has the necessary infrastructure (or political will to create such infrastructure) to accommodate this many people, or to provide the services needed in multiple languages.

I support fully people’s right to find a better life and to migrate if necessary. I would argue that the state and city governments are more daunted by these numbers than excited. It presents a huge challenge, especially considering the huge national debt and the forecasted collapse of Medicare.
 

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sleepy said:
Apparently, all the census did was take current growth rates and project them out to 2030. In other words, the projection is strictly a mathematical model that doesn't account for any future economic and other trends.

"The projections were produced for each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia by age and sex for the years 2001 to 2030, based on Census 2000 results, and the general assumption that recent state-specific trends in fertility, mortality, domestic migration, and international migration will continue."

http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/projectionsagesex.html
Yep... but that won't stop us from bull shitting ;)
 

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How DARE you cast doubt on the sacred prophetic oracles of the U.S. Census Bureau?

BLASPHEMY!
 

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^^ Very easily.

Back in the 20's, they were expecting Buffalo to peak out at 1.5 million people. Look what's happened there - American labor priced itself out of the game, and the city shrunk. Nobody expected that to happen, and don't say it can't happen again someplace, somehow else. This country isn't too good at learning from mistakes.

Now I'm not trying to lay the hex on you guys and say it is or isn't going to happen, but I wouldn't just sit back and just expect that to happen is all. And if it does, Spencer114 has some valid arguments. Either way you crack the cookie, this country as a whole has some serious issues popping up in the mid-range future, and the southeast won't be exempt.
 

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Wow, USA population is increasing very fast! 2% every year, you are growing like a developing nation! (although I know this is due mainly to inmigration). So for 2030 California, Texas and Florida will still be at th top huh? I wonder what percentage of them will be Latinos?
 

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Projections are often way off as are final counts. If you look at the estimates made for Atlanta between 1990-2000 by the census projections, even their highest growth estimate was an underestimate. In addition the estimates and the census do not handle the "illegal" immigration that we know dominates much of the growht in the Southeast. So whatever the best estimates, we need to add a fudge factor that is somewhat objective. I try to look at other determinants of growth like housing starts, job growth, traffic volume and at other estimates from a variety of sources. Anyone who lives in the Atlanta metro area and doesn't "feel" the dynamic growth of area must be asleep - but to actually quantify it is really complicated. I am sure that the same issues face those in Miami, Houston, Dallas, Charlotte, etc - these are all regions experiencing high growth. Ten year census efforts can't really capture growth that is this dynamic.
 

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tuckerman said:
I am sure that the same issues face those in Miami, Houston, Dallas, Charlotte, etc - these are all regions experiencing high growth.
regionally alot of these cities believe the census projections are too low
 
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