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25-year growth spurt projected

By Bill Hanna
Star-Telegram Staff Writer


The move to the Sunbelt that has made Texas the nation's second-most-populous state is projected to continue unabated for the next 25 years.

Census Bureau projections released Thursday indicate that nearly one-half of the nation's population growth between 2000 and 2030 will occur in California, Florida and Texas.

California and Texas are projected to keep their No. 1 and No. 2 rankings for the next 25 years, but Florida is projected to replace New York at No. 3.

Between 2000 and 2030, Texas' population is expected to grow by 12,465,924. If those forecasts are correct, the population will grow from 20,851,820 million to 33,317,744, making Texas the fourth-fastest-growing state.

As in California, a high birthrate and migration will lead to the population increase in Texas, said Texas' state demographer, Steve Murdock.

"It offers challenges and opportunities," Murdock said. "There will be expanding markets for goods and services and challenges for infrastructure and highways."

The fast-growing states will also buck the national trend of getting older, said William Frey, a demographer for the Brookings Institution.

"I think the main thing for the fastest-growing states -- Texas, Arizona, Nevada -- is that while their population will not only be aging, it will also be younging," Frey said. "That may not be a word, but that's what will be happening. It will create a tug of war for resources, but it will mean there will be a youth movement that other states in the upper Midwest and Northeast will not have."

All told, the South and West should account for 88 percent of the nation's projected population growth. The two regions are expected to account for 65 percent of the U.S. population by 2030, up from 58 percent in 2000.

The portion of the U.S. population living in the Northeast and Midwest is expected to drop from 42 percent to 35 percent.

Waco economist Ray Perryman said the growth will strain infrastructure but should be positive for Texas overall.

"I think Texas will clearly be better off than many other states," he said. "We'll have a growing economy and a fairly tight work force."

Hispanics are expected to displace Anglos as Texas' ethnic majority by 2027.

Some of that growth is expected to come from immigration, which will further strain the state's education system, Perryman said.

"There will be segments of the population with historically high dropout rates who do not have English as their primary language, so education will be critical," Perryman said. "We're grappling with many of those issues now, and that's probably going to continue."
 

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"As in California, a high birthrate and migration will lead to the population increase in Texas, said Texas' state demographer, Steve Murdock."

They miss acrossing the border, illegally.

Census Bureau isnt reliable... they lied so much, beside the ones about Chicago.

They say in the 60's that by 2000, Buffalo, Detriot, and St. Louis(I think) would pass 3 million. Also, Philly will pass 2 million....and Chicago pass 4 million.
(I dont have a source, but I remember reading about that)


Isn't 33 million+ too much??? Texas might be the next state beside New Jeresy being a Sprawl state.

I do hope, they have enough water... I think maybe the great lake region state might lend them water in the future...
 

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I'm really not impressed by the Census Bureau. Their estimates seem way to connected with the trends from 1990 to 2000 rather than more recent trends or even looking into other factors. For example, they kept screwing with the numbers for Baltimore, claiming it dropped by 23,000 from 2000 to 2003. Even after it was supposed to be corrected to 643,000, their website still shows it being at 628,000. They projected that it dropped 7,000 for 2004. Why am I not surprised? Baltimore only has a few thousand housing renovations and new housing construction going on, which would easily curb any chance of losing 7,000 (way too high.) Housing sales are at a record high. The idea that sprawl will continue for 30 more years leaves me unconvinced. Gas prices are strikingly high and will most likely increase over the next 30 years, given that oil is consumed much faster than it is produced. I'm skeptic, to say the least. Didn't mean to take it somewhat off topic, but seeing as this is Census related, it's all relative.
 

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Texas is now the sprawl capital of the United States, IMO. Not even California has it beat. Just look at how far Houston, Dallas, Austin and now even San Antonio sprawl out on a map. It's obscene.
 

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Fiddlerontheruf said:
Texas is now the sprawl capital of the United States, IMO. Not even California has it beat. Just look at how far Houston, Dallas, Austin and now even San Antonio sprawl out on a map. It's obscene.
I don't know about all that. Look at the area between Los Angeles and San Diego and the area between Los Angeles and San Bernardino. Now that in my opinion is crazy.
 

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Um, I'm sorry, but no Californian has any grounds to lecture another state about sprawl. Think about that the next time you are taking the 5 hour drive from Riverside to Santa Barbara.
 

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Skanky the Boricuo said:
Um, I'm sorry, but no Californian has any grounds to lecture another state about sprawl. Think about that the next time you are taking the 5 hour drive from Riverside to Santa Barbara.
Hot dang!

In Texas I near drove from El Paso to San Antonio in 5 hours. :)
 
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