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Whiskey Tango Foxtrot
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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
the 2010 census

Exact population figures from last April's census will be released soon. For now, there is a new estimate of US population that has been released:

Bloomberg

Census Bureau Projects U.S. Population as High as 312.7 Million

By Timothy R. Homan - Dec 6, 2010

The Census Bureau estimates the U.S. population is 305.7 million to 312.7 million, based on an analysis of data available before its official count was conducted.

The estimates were compiled from data as of April 1 and are not part of the overall 2010 count, the agency said today at a news conference in Washington. Still, the Census Bureau said the numbers represent possible growth trends of certain demographic groups. The 2010 census results will be released before Jan. 1 as required by law.

“The 2010 Census provides the official population count, but demographic analysis provides an honest presentation of alternative estimates,” Robert Groves, director of the Census Bureau, said in a statement. These figures “make plausible assumptions,” he told reporters at a media briefing in Washington.

Today’s numbers, compiled separately from the official census, mark the first wave of data that offer a snapshot of the U.S. and its residents. The census will influence the allocation of about $4 trillion in federal funds during the next decade and will determine which states will gain or lose seats in the House of Representatives.

‘Wait and See’

“We will all wait and see” what the census numbers provide in the exact population count, Groves said at the press briefing.

Later this month -- and before the overall population count is announced -- the agency will publish findings from an annual survey sent to about 3 million U.S. households. The data will be an average from 2005 to 2009 and will offer estimates for topics including income, poverty, foreign-born population, commute time to work and housing costs. Those numbers will be released Dec. 14.

The U.S. population in 2000 was 281.4 million, and in 1990 it was 248.7 million, according to the Census Bureau. Today’s population projections, based on the high-range estimate of 312.7 million, mean that there was an 11.1 percent rate of growth during the past 10 years. That is slower than the 13.1 percent pace in the previous decade.

Gender, Race Estimates

Today’s report offered population estimates for categories such as gender, race and age. The analysis shows the number of males in the U.S. is as low as 151.9 million or as high as 155.5 million. For women, the range is from 153.7 million to 157.2 million.

The black population in the U.S. ranged from 40.9 million to 41.7 million, the Census Bureau said. The number of young Hispanics -- limited to residents under the age of 20 since not enough states began gathering detailed race information until 1990 -- ranged from 18.3 million to 21.3 million.

Figures released today did not include an estimate of the number of white residents. “The non-black population has become a lot more diverse,” Jason Devine, head of methodology research in the agency’s population division, said in an interview. He said census demographers for this report focused more on the changing Hispanic population.

The data measured the non-black population, which includes Hispanics and other races. That figure ranged from 264.8 million to 271 million.

The U.S. Constitution requires the federal government to count the population every 10 years.
 

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Illuminati Leader
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I was projecting 313 million so I hope i was right. But why is the range so big? 305 million was the projected population in 2007 so the range that takes into account the population in 2007 seems rather big. I would have expected more like a 2 million persons range.
 

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Whiskey Tango Foxtrot
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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
I was projecting 313 million so I hope i was right. But why is the range so big? 305 million was the projected population in 2007 so the range that takes into account the population in 2007 seems rather big. I would have expected more like a 2 million persons range.
As with any statistical sampling, the numbers seem to fall within that '3% margin for error'.
 

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I was projecting 313 million so I hope i was right. But why is the range so big? 305 million was the projected population in 2007 so the range that takes into account the population in 2007 seems rather big. I would have expected more like a 2 million persons range.

We'll be looking forward to looking over the official count very soon.
 

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Whiskey Tango Foxtrot
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Discussion Starter · #10 ·
High chance that New York will lose at least 2 House seats, both of them upstate and at least one of those will be in the Buffalo area.
Not necessarily. Districts should be reapportioned by the national average population for a congressional district (845,000 based on an overall 310,000,000). So districts upstate will likely grow larger in geographic size while the losses could occur anywhere in the state. Also, Andrew Cuomo would get killed if he signed onto a chop like that for Buffalo.
 

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My guess is that if New York does lose two seats, it'll be the 26th and 24th districts that get chopped up the most. Granted, the fact that Republicans won a majority in the State Senate likely means that they'll put up a fight when it comes to redistricting. The Democrats will likely want to pack the most conservative areas into two districts, leaving the rest more winnable for democrats.

In Michigan the Republicans will have no problem redrawing the lines in their favor. I would think there stategy would be to somehow cut up the 5th district leaving the only "blue" districts in the Detroit area.
 

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Finally this topic came out!

312.7 million give us an 11.1% increase over 2000, quite impressive. It's not as strong as 1990-2000, even though surprinsingly high, at least for me. Brazil just conducted its census, finding 190.7 million over 169.8 million in 2000, or a 12.3% increase. As the immigration/migration is negligible
here (at least the net between them), the natural increase is around 12.2-12.4%.

Anyway, when the definite data will come out? I'm anxious!

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About the discussions over politics, I'm pro-Republicans, but I'm also pro-Northeast-Midwest, so I'm looking forward a more balanced growth among all states.
 

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Guys, what are your forecasts over the CSA/MSAs population and growth rate? Do you believe Detroit and Cleveland growth will be positive? Pittsburgh and Buffalo will halt the population loss? The population of Dallas, Houston, Atlanta and Phoenix are overestimated? Are you expecting any major changes on CSA/MSAs definitions?
 

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Journeyman
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I'd expect any CSA/MSA changes to happen later, after they digest the data. Wasn't the last round in 2002 or so?

Washington state will probably stay ahead of Arizona, which I'm guessing will nearly guarantee that Washington will add a congressional seat.

Local population figures will show temporary effects of the economy -- more roommates, more living with parents, less moving due to inability to sell, etc. At the same time, some overbuilt places will have filled a lot of units through fire sales, resulting in significant growth, but not growth that would project forward once the fire sales are over.

Oddly, when the economy gets better and people stop sharing housing so much, populations in a lot of places will decline.
 
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