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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
I might be a little early with this but whatever.

Predict the number of seats each party will get in the next general election.

Liberal
Conservative
NDP
Bloc
 

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Discussion Starter · #4 ·
|A| said:
In politics, a second is an eternity - much can happen from now until the elections are called and held.
This is true but that's no reason why we should not speculate anyway.

As for the Green, I guess anything can happen. But don't they need 12 seats to have any sort of relevance?
 

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Mr Man said:
As for the Green, I guess anything can happen. But don't they need 12 seats to have any sort of relevance?
No... 1 seat is enough to put them on the map as a party that is going to stay. If there was any fairness to our electoral process though, they'd have a seat already, and more than one -- about 10 to 16, actually.
 

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salvius said:
No... 1 seat is enough to put them on the map as a party that is going to stay. If there was any fairness to our electoral process though, they'd have a seat already, and more than one -- about 10 to 16, actually.
Really? How so? Maybe it's different where you are but don't they have to get the greatest number of votes in their riding to win the riding?
 

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LooselogInThePeg said:
Really? How so? Maybe it's different where you are but don't they have to get the greatest number of votes in their riding to win the riding?
They got 5% of the vote last time, that's how they got official party status last election, and why they should have seats already. 1/20th of the people voted for them, but they have no seats? I call foul.
 

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LooselogInThePeg said:
Really? How so? Maybe it's different where you are but don't they have to get the greatest number of votes in their riding to win the riding?
Well, as I have said, if there was any fairness to our system (i.e. no simple majority in the first past the post), they would have as little as 10 and as many as 16 seats depending on the method of proportional representation, depending on the districting of the system.
 

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I think one of three scenarios could happen:

1. people who do not trust the Liberals but dislike the Conservatives' social policies vote for NDP, Bloc, Green. Very slim minority government run by either the Liberals or Conservatives with strong representation from the other three parties. Very little gets done in parliament because the seats are so dispersed.

2. people who do not trust the Liberals but dislike the Conservatives' social policies stay home, or vote Liberal just so that the Conservatives don't win. The Liberals get a minority, the Conservatives dig up something new and there is another election in a year or so. The other parties get very few seats.

3. The Conservatives win, but the Liberals are re-elected in a few years.
 

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Global asked the Mustel group to do a study and they found out that 61% agree with the PM, no election until Gomery's report is out....however, they don't agree with having his emergency speech to the nation - 49%.
 

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Conservatives 170 (includ. Chuck Cadman)
Liberals 15
Bloc 60
NDP 63

Aprox. guesses... but maybe....

Watch, we'll have an election in late june, the Bloc will bring down gov't, and the conservatives will go along with it...
bluenoser said:
2. people who do not trust the Liberals but dislike the Conservatives' social policies stay home, or vote Liberal just so that the Conservatives don't win. The Liberals get a minority, the Conservatives dig up something new and there is another election in a year or so. The other parties get very few seats.
yeah, this is probably the most likely of the three scenarios, i think we should have mandatory voting like in australia, we have to participate in student vote in the bc election, i got recruited to falsify results...er... count ballots....
 

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yesheh said:
Conservatives 170 (includ. Chuck Cadman)
Liberals 15
Bloc 60
NDP 63
Haha! That's a laugh and a half.

I'll eat my shoes if this happens.
 

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Screw politics. I'm sick of this election mess. Elections should be fixed every four years so we don't end up with this kind of fiasco...total waste of resources, total waste of time. Now politicans are so preoccupied with their own personal futures that they've completely ignored the important issues at hand..& the electorates' priorities. :rant:
 

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An early election will only happen if Paul Martin decides not to side with Jack Layton, which is a very good possibility. It will be close and may come down to the speaker of the house, which is a Liberal at the moment.
 

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I think it's a tough call. I predict a slim minority for either the Conservatives or the Liberals. The polls say the Cs will take it if it was held right now but by the time the Gomery report comes out I wouldn't be too surprised to see a reversal.

As I've said before, I like Martin. It's the Liberal party as a whole that needs the boot. If Martin proves to be innocent of any wrongdoing in this fiasco I still won't vote Liberal this time around simply because I'm not voting for Martin but rather his party. In another time I think Martin would have made a great PM but Chretien knew what he was doing when he stepped down. A little rehash of the Mulroney/Kim Campbell song. He hated Martin and knew he'd take the heat for this. Granted, Chretien didn't appoint Martin as his successor but he knew that's who would get the big chair.

While I personally disagree with people's opinion of the Conservatives (it's very stereotypical) I can't ignore the fact that the people who share it do so based on Harper's persona. With that in mind, if another leader was in charge of the party, I believe it would give them better results. If they do lose this next round, I'm willing to bet that Harper gets the boot right away and he gets replaced by someone with more mass appeal. To me, he's kind of a non-entity as far as his personality goes, but again, I'm not voting Conservative for him...I want a change in the party leading the country.

One thing I think we can all count on though with this next election...we are going to see a very clear regional divide in politics. I see BC leaning heavily towards the Greens (relative to the last election) and NDP. The Prairies will almost certainly go Conservative all the way (although Manitoba tends to be that area where the parties collide historically) Ontario will probably go Liberal still but with a heavy Conservative showing. Bloc in Quebec of course. The Maritimes will likely go Liberal/NDP. Not too sure about them this time around.
 

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Discussion Starter · #16 ·
yesheh said:
Conservatives 170 (includ. Chuck Cadman)
Liberals 15
Bloc 60
NDP 63

Aprox. guesses... but maybe....

Watch, we'll have an election in late june, the Bloc will bring down gov't, and the conservatives will go along with it...


yeah, this is probably the most likely of the three scenarios, i think we should have mandatory voting like in australia, we have to participate in student vote in the bc election, i got recruited to falsify results...er... count ballots....
:lol:
 

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Discussion Starter · #17 ·
salvius said:
Well, as I have said, if there was any fairness to our system (i.e. no simple majority in the first past the post), they would have as little as 10 and as many as 16 seats depending on the method of proportional representation, depending on the districting of the system.

Just an idea... reform the senate so it becomes an elected proportional representation of the parties.
 

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What Should Happen
Conservative 201
NDP 100
(note the Liberals were not included because every party member was arrested. The Bloc isn't allowed to run because separatist parties are illegal.)

Unfortuanatly air pollution in southern Ontario have caused voters there to become retarted. In light of this my prediction is this.

Conservative 140
Liberal 80
Bloc 60
NDP 21
 

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It will probably be a slim Conservative majority. Next election, Liberals will win again.

NDP will probably get more seats this time, though, and next time, the Greens will beome more powerful.
 
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