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Well, it officially starts in a few days. How do you guys feel about this year's hurricane season? Personally, I'm a little on edge. As a South Carolinian, I can remember how Hugo ravaged our coast back in '89, as well as inland portions of the Carolinas. I'm also nervous about the Gulf Coast, which is in such a fragile and vulnerable condition right now.
 

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according to weather.com, aletta is the first named storm, but it's over in the Pacific.

The National Weather Service came out with a statement couple weeks back that there would be between 13 and 16 named storms of which eight to ten would be hurricanes, five of those being major hurricanes.

here's the link to the article ...

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2634.htm
 

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I know Pat Robertson said it would be worse than last year, if he "heard God right". :lol:
I'm not so sure, really. If it is worse, that's just horrible luck, but we may get a break after such an intense season last year.
 

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All meterologists agree that we are in an "active" cycle that happens every 30 years or so. The active cycle started in 1995 and we have 15 to 20 more years of this active cycle. What the debate now is global warming. Is this adding to the destructive nature of the hurricanes, or is it causing the hurricanes to start earlier. Only time will tell, but boys be prepared for 15 more years of Hurricane Katrinas becasue the build up on the Gulf coastline and all of the East Coast spells destruction in a HUGE way. Think the last active cycle was in 1960 when the build up on the coast was so much less and the houses cost very little to replace.
 

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I feel good about New Orleans...we are no longer overdue. All trends point to an active East Coast year and most GOM storms heading West (there are always exceptions). A strong Summer ridge has planted itself over the North Central Gulf that looks like it will protect this area from most systems. These Summer ridges, once in place, tend to remain in place with small shifts East and West during the Summer, and finally move out, when Autumn trends approach. Nevertheless, I've put last year behind me and am approaching this hurricane season with a new clean slate. It's just another hurricane season. I'm not letting last year or any other year have any effects on my nerves or thoughts. I do hope New Orleans is spared most systems, since we're still cleaning up from Katrina.
 

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Yeah, because there was a period in the 70's and 80's when there were only a few storms of note really. And then in like '88/89 we had Gilbert and Hugo. And then in '95 There was Opal (Florida), '96 Fran (NC,SC,VA), '99 Floyd (NC)......2005 Katrina, Rita, Wilma... Yep definetly a cycle of somekind, probably strengthened by the continued global warming.
 

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Sean in New Orleans said:
I feel good about New Orleans...we are no longer overdue. All trends point to an active East Coast year and most GOM storms heading West (there are always exceptions). A strong Summer ridge has planted itself over the North Central Gulf that looks like it will protect this area from most systems. These Summer ridges, once in place, tend to remain in place with small shifts East and West during the Summer, and finally move out, when Autumn trends approach. Nevertheless, I've put last year behind me and am approaching this hurricane season with a new clean slate. It's just another hurricane season. I'm not letting last year or any other year have any effects on my nerves or thoughts. I do hope New Orleans is spared most systems, since we're still cleaning up from Katrina.
So, are you saying that the Gulf Coast is relatively safe for this year, and NYC and areas east better watch out?
 

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Well as said by Sean, The forecast is for the storms to hit along the east coast.I think that any storms that enter the gulf will head torwards Texas or East to Florida. You can't really believe the forecasts that they come out with, because look at last year. They said we will have about 14-16 storms and how many did we have, 26. So I made my own forecast.

21 Named Storms
14 Hurricanes
6-8 Cat 3+
 

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Trae said:
So, are you saying that the Gulf Coast is relatively safe for this year, and NYC and areas east better watch out?
1st part not sure, but the 2nd yes. Here is the 3 cities that will be disasterous if a Cat 4 or 5 hit them.

New Orleans
New York City
Tampa Bay

New Orleans has been hit already, so the only 2 left is NYC and my city, Tampa.
 

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I don't even want to think about NYC. The subways underground levels on buildings. Plus, those skyscrapers can have a lot of wind between them. Also, a lot of evacuees. NYC has eight million alone.
 

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I wonder if the engineers made the underground parking to support the weight of the water if it filled up several floors of underground parking. Would a skyscraper collapse onto itself?
 

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unusualfire said:
I wonder if the engineers made the underground parking to support the weight of the water if it filled a several floors of underground parking. Would a skyscraper collapse onto itself?
Good question, probably not.
 

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Brillemeister said:
I know Pat Robertson said it would be worse than last year, if he "heard God right". :lol:
I'm not so sure, really. If it is worse, that's just horrible luck, but we may get a break after such an intense season last year.
the thing about predictions is just that, they are predictions. it could happen that nothing comes, and that it could be worse, like someone already mentioned. i hope its not but i guess we'll see.
 

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I higly doubt a hurricane with strong strength would reach alone effect the North East in areas such as NYC as it would due in the South. The Atlantic waters and wind currents with the jet stream in the North East don't really allow for hurricane force storms. I remember when Andrew slammed Florida and I was in Newark, NJ. The storm came up through the Carolinas after and began to break down into a tropical storm, by the time it even saw the North East it was a very nasty thunder storm system.


Inless the jet stream reverses itself and the waters warm up as they do in Flordia and the Gulf I doubt a hurricane will hit NYC.
 

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Israel said:
I higly doubt a hurricane with strong strength would reach alone effect the North East in areas such as NYC as it would due in the South. The Atlantic waters and wind currents with the jet stream in the North East don't really allow for hurricane force storms. I remember when Andrew slammed Florida and I was in Newark, NJ. The storm came up through the Carolinas after and began to break down into a tropical storm, by the time it even saw the North East it was a very nasty thunder storm system.


Inless the jet stream reverses itself and the waters warm up as they do in Flordia and the Gulf I doubt a hurricane will hit NYC.
Yes but last year, Portgual for the first time in recorded was hit by a tropical storm. Mother nature can do what it wants. The last time a major Hurricane hit NYC was in 1930. The previous one was in the 1860. They say one every 70 years. It is overdue. The way it would happen would be a bermuda high setting up. Hurricanes follow the High pressure, and low pressures ( ie cold fronts). The love high pressure because it can gain strength, They hate low pressures because they are swept out to sea as the low pressure comes east. If a bermuda High pressure set up then the steering currents would force it north towards the NYC, Long Island. But the High pressure has be positioned enough for it to turn due north. I'll find the link and post it to show everybody what I mean.
 

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NYC is overdue, however goegraphically speaking, hurricanes usually make landfill before heading to the NE US, like in North Carolina or VA. It is difficult for a storm to regain much of its strength in the waters north of the Carolinas, giving the NE a sort of buffer. It will take a New Orleans type scenario of the perfect storm to severely impact NYC or Long Island. Thought it will surely happen. The ACCU weather people say that this years water temps and jet stream placements are particularly threatening to the coasts of North and South Carolina like in 96-99 though these areas usually see their hurricane season from late August to mid October.
 

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I hope they don't go west. Rita barely missed us and that was crappy enough. I would hate to see Houston with lots of blue tarps and piles of debris.
 
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