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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
Single Family home prices are going through the roof in south florida and whatever happens with the condo market basic supply and demand will prevent a large scale single family home collapse, cause people will always want single family homes and there isn't any more land to build them. Most future development will by necessity have to be denser with townhouses and condos.

Also, The florida save our homes amendment is limiting the supply of new homes on the market cause people cannot afford to sell and move up because of property taxes.

If you own a single-family home anywhere in South Florida (even if it's in a shitty neighborhood, eventually it'll gentrify out of necessity), you are sitting on a goldmine.

Florida (at least South Florida) is starting to become the next California in respect to home prices.

http://southflorida.bizjournals.com/southflorida/stories/2005/05/23/daily30.html

FAR: S. Fla. real estate prices keep climbing
If there is a tremor in the real estate boom, it is not showing in the April median sales prices for existing, single-family homes in South Florida. The region averaged a nearly 29 percent increase.

The numbers, from the Florida Association of Realtors, show identical percentage increases in Fort Lauderdale and Miami. The 27 percent hike in both areas pushes the prices farther north to $343,900 from $270,200 and moves the prices farther south to $333,600 from $262,000.

In West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, the increase was even higher - 32 percent, to $372,300 from $281,700.

In keeping with recent trends, though, the number of sales in April declined.

The largest decrease, 19 percent, pulled the number of homes sold in Fort Lauderdale to 1,107 from 1,371. The smallest decrease, 4 percent in Miami, tugged the number of homes that changed hands in that city to 1,215 from 1,262.

The 10 percent decline in West Palm Beach-Boca Raton meant 1,407 homes changed hands in April, down from 1,567 for the same month the year before.

Statewide, there was no decline in the number of homes sold. The 3 percent increase meant 23,537 Florida homes changed hands in April, up from 22,746 homes in April 2004. A 26 percent increase in median sales price pushed the median amount paid for those homes to $218,600 from $172,900.

In the last five years, the statewide median sales price has increased 88.6 percent, from $115,900, FAR records show.

The Realtor group credited low interest rates, among other factors, for current numbers. It put the April average for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage at 5.86 percent, up slightly from the 5.83 percent average during the same month a year ago.

FAR's sales figures reflect closings, which typically occur 30 to 90 days after sales contracts are written.
 

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Yeah, that's a MAJOR problem with "Save our Homes" -- more and more people are going to find themselves stuck with homes they can NEVER afford to sell because they couldn't afford the property taxes on a new one costing half as much.

They need to establish a mechanism so that someone who owns a homestead property can transfer their taxable and market values to a new homestead property... so if someone sells a house capped at $240k for $690k and buys a condo for $620k, the condo's taxable value would be capped at $240k. If they bought a bigger house, say for $800k, the taxable value would be capped at $240k + ($800k - $690k) = $360k.

Otherwise, we're going to start seeing, for instance, a LOT of widows living in big houses that they can't afford to maintain (and really don't want to live in) because the taxes on a small condo worth 25% as much as their house would be double the taxes on the mortgage-free, value-capped big house they bought 40 years earlier.
 

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^No, what they need to do is get rid of the asinine law all together, and correct a massively skewed property tax assessment system. If everyone was paying the amount they're supposed to be paying, based on what thier home is actually worth, tax rates would be significantly lower, and thus folks could actually move without taking it up the ass come tax time.
 

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^No, what they need to do is get rid of the asinine law all together, and correct a massively skewed property tax assessment system
Never gonna happen, because the people who'd get hit with higher taxes are the same homeowning Florida residents who'd have to approve it (and would cause a political backlash and bloodbath of biblical proportions if it were legislatively or judicially overturned without voter consent). Ultimately, it's a way for Florida homeowners to shift most of the tax burden onto renters and out-of-state property owners (who can't vote it Florida anyway).

What's more likely to happen (as kids who grew up in Florida become increasingly unable to afford to buy homes of their own because of the taxes) is a future amendment that will let people take their caps with them when they move around Florida, and let their kids "inherit" their parents' cap when THEY buy their first home so they can enjoy the same protected status.

Objectively, it's unfair (particularly to newcomers)... but if such an amendment were written in a way that profoundly benefitted at least 51% of the voting population, it would likely pass in a landslide victory, because the people who'd be angriest and get screwed the worst can't vote in Florida anyway.
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
If everyone was paying the amount they're supposed to be paying, based on what thier home is actually worth, tax rates would be significantly lower, and thus folks could actually move without taking it up the ass come tax time.
You actually believe this?

You trust our local city government officials to be responsible with our property tax rates? You trust them to lower rates when appraisals go through the roof?

:lol:

I don't want to be like NY or New Jersey or California Pre-Proposition 13 or other states where property tax bills can and do go up 20-50% a year and regular working people are priced out of their homes because of taxes.
 

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logybogy said:
You actually believe this?

You trust our local city government officials to be responsible with our property tax rates? You trust them to lower rates when appraisals go through the roof?

:lol:

I don't want to be like NY or New Jersey or California Pre-Proposition 13 or other states where property tax bills can and do go up 20-50% a year and regular working people are priced out of their homes because of taxes.
True Logybogy :) , I'll believe that the taxes go lower is when they Don't build the new Miami, Florida Marlins stadium in Miami-Dade county. Then the taxes could be lowered " Just a little ", lol. :cheers:
 

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Economy.com rated the 12 largest US markets based on what percentage of the average house in a city the average worker in that city can afford. Not suprisingly Miami is one of the most expensive cities in the US to live, surpasing Boston and Chicago in the last few years. At least we can be happy that our prices have not gotten as crazy as LA, where the average resident can only afford half of the average house.

A score of 100 would mean the average income can buy exactly the average house.

City 1980 1990 2000 2004

Los Angeles 52.6 60.3 78.9 57.2
San Francisco 61.6 61.0 67.3 60.6
New York 81.0 63.4 76.1 63.8
Miami 63.8 104.0 99.4 75.0
Boston 80.8 100.0 94.0 93.8
Washington, D.C. 75.1 108.1 152.7 115.6
Chicago 100.4 115.2 128.8 122.8
Detroit 132.5 159.5 156.8 169.4
Philadelphia 101.6 115.1 180.4 174.1
Atlanta 135.3 150.9 167.5 193.0
Houston 110.0 166.3 159.4 193.5
Dallas 100.1 134.4 163.8 201.8
 

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dave8721 said:
Economy.com rated the 12 largest US markets based on what percentage of the average house in a city the average worker in that city can afford.
Man...that is very surprising to me.
Many of these surveys neglect real costs of living. Even respectable studies tend to use the Income -v- % of housing cost factor when determining affordability.
That doesn't do Miami much justice, and doesn't tell the whole picture. When you compare anyone's gross income in another state, be sure to consider that there are state taxes and often city taxes that will be taken out of that gross income figure (as well as many other "taxes" or unique local fees.)

Consider that someone making $100,000 in NYC must take out 11% in state and muni taxes. In Miami, you take out zero in those two measures. 11% is not insignificant, and will clearly skew the results of a fair assessment of living costs.
It seems so much better to try to make an assessment of Net income divided by housing cost, which is the meausre that banks use to ascertain whether an individual can afford a house or not.
 
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Have you guys seen this article in today's Herald?

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/11952393.htm

Miami's housing 'bubble' biggest in nation

A Merrill Lynch survey pegged Miami's real estate market -- with its growing affordability gap -- as the most 'bubbly' in the nation.

BY MATTHEW HAGGMAN

[email protected]


Miami-Dade's unprecedented property boom has a new distinction: It is the fattest real estate ''bubble'' in the country, according to a recently released report.

The gap between prices and local incomes has grown faster in the Miami metropolitan area than in any other U.S. city, according to the report by Merrill Lynch. The study was prompted by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's observation this month that there are ``signs of froth in some local markets.''

The frothiest, Merrill Lynch concludes, is in Miami.

''Home prices in [Miami] have risen 85 percent since the start of 2001, nearly double the national average,'' the report said, citing federal statistics. ``And the latest data show that home-price inflation shows no signs of abating -- home prices in the first quarter of 2005 were 21 percent higher than a year ago.''

Comparing home prices to income in 52 metropolitan areas across the country, the report also warned that such a spread indicated a ''significant deterioration'' in housing affordability.

One local observer immediately questioned the report, asserting that a sharp discrepancy between home prices and income does not mean Miami's real estate prices are overinflated.

Second-home buyers from Latin America and Europe, along with baby boomers in the United States, are increasingly buying second homes in South Florida, said Ronald Shuffield, president of the Coral Gables-based real estate brokerage Esslinger Wooten Maxwell. That demand hikes prices -- and incomes don't matter.

''You have to at least put a footnote that says many of the people buying that are creating these values are not dependent on annual income here,'' he said.

But Shuffield, who argues that South Florida's growing population -- among other things -- will prevent a real estate bust, acknowledged that the report illustrates a growing problem for the region: affordability.

''If there is anything these numbers point to, it is not that we will have a bubble that will crash,'' he said. ``It is, what do we do to get affordable housing for our work force?''

The rest of the article: http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/11952393.htm
 

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Typical "bubble" article that we are getting used to from the Herald. If buyers would actually believe them they would have missed out on 25% apprectiation over the last year.
Gotta love Ron Shuffield, though...he always tries to bring a dose of reality to the chicken little crowd.
One thing that almost never gets mentioned (in addition to the foreign/second home buyers whose income doesn't mattter or get counted in the statistics as Suffield mentioned) is the fact that there are no city or state income taxes.
Comparing the Miami housing market against other housing markets based on "income" and not on "net income after taxes" just might skew the figures by enough to drop Miami down from #1 on that list.
That phrase "real estate bubble", a very recent invention, is so over used and misused.
 
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''You have to at least put a footnote that says many of the people buying that are creating these values are not dependent on annual income here,''

perhaps a 'finally someone gets it' in bubble article. Miami is one of the only american cities not relying on America for its sustenance/existence. This is perhaps why our bubble would be least likely to burst, we can rely on any other global economy, South America, Europe, Asia, Middle East, whoever.

Thats the one thing I like about Miami is its unpredictability and its constantly shifting influx of people, economy and 'trends' of many genres.
 

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i recently took a trip around florida and daytona beach, and tampa are growing at a fast pace also all along i75 there are alot of communities that didnt exist there 2 years ago the housing market in florida has grown astronomically....

as for the bubble madness its all hot air. i dont go by what the herald or other papers write becuase they dont understand the true demographics and dont know how to crunch the numbers. last year there was 30k people that moved into miami. that means that at 70k condos in current phase it would take us 2 years to fill those condos. bottomline is devolopers arent building houses these days they are building condos....
 

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archifreese said:
perhaps a 'finally someone gets it' in bubble article. Thats the one thing I like about Miami is its unpredictability and its constantly shifting influx of people, economy and 'trends' of many genres.
Amen Archi...
 
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Discussion Starter · #15 ·
DAAAAA-UMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!!

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/11970550.htm

Posted on Fri, Jun. 24, 2005


REAL ESTATE

Through the roof: Home prices surge in Broward

As existing single-family home prices rose even higher in May, overall home sales posted a sharp decline in Broward County.

BY MATTHEW HAGGMAN

[email protected]


South Florida single-family home prices, which have surged to record levels in recent years and prompted fears of a heavily inflated market, climbed to new heights in May.

Prices for existing single-family homes in both Miami-Dade and Broward counties soared 34 percent compared with the same month a year ago, according to numbers released Thursday by the Florida Association of Realtors.

The median price of a singlefamily home is now $367,000 in Broward and $354,900 in Miami-Dade.

Both of those prices represent more than a 6 percent increase since April. And since May 2000, the median price of a single-family home in Florida has doubled, the Florida Realtor group reported.

From April to May this year, the median in Dade rose $21,300; in Broward, $23,000.

''These prices are crazy,'' said real estate broker Phil Keagy, vice chairman of the Master Brokers Forum in Broward. ``Is it sustainable? It is a question that no one can seem to answer. We thought three months ago we had it nailed, and it keeps going up.''

Nationally, existing single-family homes sold at the second-fastest pace in history. The median home price across the country shot up to $207,000, the National Association of Realtors reported. The median is the price at which half the homes sell for more and half for less.

Low interest rates are fueling the lofty prices. Buyers are also taking advantage of financing mechanisms such as interest-only mortgages to buy properties they might not otherwise afford.

The volume of homes sold in Miami-Dade and Broward, meanwhile, was a mixed bag. Home sales in Broward dropped 21 percent in May compared with the same period a year ago; Miami-Dade sales were up 4 percent, the first rise in 11 months.

Many observers contend the lackluster sales figures are not due to softened demand. ''The buyers have not diminished,'' said Helen Jeanne Nicastri of Coldwell Banker in Coral Gables. ``The buyers are just having to deal with the fact the choices available are not like it used to be.''

Some first-time and upgrade buyers are getting priced out of the single-family housing market. And some would-be sellers are staying put because a move would mean a much fatter tax bill.

''Taxes are now as important as the purchase price,'' said Ann DeFries, president of the Realtors Association of Greater Fort Lauderdale.

Because assessments can only climb 3 percent a year for existing homeowners under Florida law, a change in ownership can double or even triple the property tax bill.

But not everyone contends the property tax conundrum is slowing single-family home sales. Orlando economist Hank Fishkind, who tracks South Florida real estate, said he thinks the slowing sales amid rising prices are symptomatic of a peaking market.

''It symbolizes the top of the market because it is impossible to continue having rapid price increases when demand is slowing,'' said Fishkind, who added he is not persuaded by the tax argument because home prices have appreciated so much.

He predicts a decline in South Florida condo prices, but doesn't believe single-family home prices will fall.

In Florida, home sales rose 7 percent; prices, 27 percent.

Rising prices worry Armando Diaz, who owns Ocean View International Realty in North Miami.

''What about the schoolteacher who has only been teaching for two years?'' he said. ``These are very decent, hardworking people. Where are they going to buy?''
 

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Discussion Starter · #16 ·
Median Single Family Home prices in Palm Beach County are approaching $400,000!!!

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/localn...s/epaper/2005/06/24/s1a_pbhomesales_0624.html

Palm Beach County's used-home supply tightens as prices soar
By Linda Rawls

Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

Friday, June 24, 2005

A severe shortage of existing homes on the market in May caused sales to drop for the 10th consecutive month in Palm Beach County when compared with sales in the same month a year earlier, the Florida Association of Realtors said Thursday.

But Palm Beach County median home prices continued their scorching ascent, approaching the $400,000 mark.


A "lack of inventory," as Realtors call it, coupled with mortgage rates below 6 percent — and home buyers' insatiable demand for life in the sunshine — pushed the median price of an existing home in Palm Beach County to $390,900. That marked a 35 percent jump over May 2004's median.

The median is the point at which half the homes cost more and half cost less.

Sales of existing homes in Palm Beach County dropped 14 percent from May 2004 to May 2005. Realtors lamented the lack of homes for sale in every price range.

"There's a pool of buyers ready for every home that comes on the market," said John Pinson, president of the Realtors Association of Palm Beach County. "A lot of things sell before they even get into the MLS (Multiple Listing Service)."

Indeed, if you're house-hunting in Palm Beach County, you're advised to get preapproved for a mortgage and be ready to quickly sign a sales contract, said James Flood, regional president of HomeBanc Mortgage in West Palm Beach.

"If a house shows up and there are five bidders, then you have a commitment letter and can make the deal happen right away," Flood said.

That's practically a necessity if you want to snare a home in Palm Beach County's hot market, where sellers routinely get multiple offers.

County home prices have more than doubled in five years, according to a federal study released this month, causing an affordability crisis in many areas.

"Where we really need homes are in workforce housing for the people who make our communities — the teachers, firefighters, police officers and librarians," Pinson said. "There's not enough in that range."

The affordability issue is no longer confined to Palm Beach County, the used-home sales report shows.

In the Treasure Coast, which draws a lot of sticker-shocked house hunters from the south, the median price of an existing home surpassed a quarter-million dollars for the first time, rising to $253,200. That's a 35 percent jump over May 2004.

"If you're a buyer, you have to be prepared to pay the money up here now, too," said Bob Lowe, president of the Regional Multiple Listing Service and broker/owner of Lowe's International Realty on North Hutchinson Island in St. Lucie County.

"We're still affordable, especially compared with other sunny states, but I'm getting concerned about what police officers and firefighters will do for housing."

At least one real-estate analyst disputes declining sales of existing homes in Palm Beach County. Michael Cannon, managing director of Integra Realty Resources/South Florida, a consulting firm in Miami, said his analysis shows that existing-home sales are up for the first quarter of 2005 compared with the same period in 2004.

His firm does not use MLS figures, but rather counts each sale recorded at the Palm Beach County Courthouse, throwing out quit-claim deeds and other such transactions. Cannon said only 40 percent to 50 percent of the county's home sales go through the MLS, in part because Realtors already have buyers.

For the first three months of the year, Cannon said, sales of existing homes in Palm Beach County rose 21 percent over the same period in 2004. The Florida Association of Realtors' report said home sales for that period declined 9 percent.

However you count sales, the housing market will remain robust for at least another five years, Cannon and other analysts said Thursday. There's no danger that the dreaded "B" word — bubble — will occur in Florida, they said.

"Price increases are being driven by a once-in-a-lifetime low interest rate environment," said David Scott, executive director of the Dr. Phillips Institute for the Study of American Business Activity at the University of Central Florida. "This is more of an interest rate bubble than a housing bubble."

A 30-year, fixed-rate conventional mortgage averaged 5.72 percent in May, according to mortgage giant Freddie Mac, down from 5.86 in April and 6.27 in May 2004.

"Back in October 1981, conventional mortgage rates hit 18.45 percent," Scott said. "At the same time, inflation at the consumer level was in the vicinity of 10.3 percent, compared with the most recent (inflation) of 2.8 percent."

Statewide, home sales rose 7 percent in May, the Florida Realtors' report showed. The median price of an existing home in Florida rose to $230,800, a 27 percent jump over May 2004.

Nationwide, existing home sales rose to the second-highest level on record, a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.13 million, the National Association of Realtors said. The sales record was set in April, with a rate of 7.18 million.

The median price of a U.S. home rose to $207,000 in May, up 13 percent from May 2004, the national association said.
 

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Looks like prices will go up a lot more. Wasn't Empire World supposed to be "all concrete"?

http://southflorida.bizjournals.com/southflorida/stories/2005/06/27/story2.html

Concrete prices set for a round of new increases

Darcie Lunsford

As buildings continue to rise across South Florida, so do concrete prices.

Many South Florida builders are bracing for the latest spikes as many concrete suppliers implement new pricing starting July 1.

The hikes, ranging from $6 to $8 a cubic yard, depending on the grade and volume, now put the average going rate for a cubic yard of 3000 PSI concrete at about $75 to $78, industry sources say. That is up from about $54 to $56 a cubic yard just 18 months ago.

An average 100,000-square-foot office building contains about 6,000 cubic yards of concrete, which means the cost of concrete has jumped about 25 percent - to $450,000 from $336,000 - since early 2004.

"It is insane," said Ryan McDavid, business development manager for Altamonte Springs-based Tilt-Con, a major supplier of tilt-up concrete construction walls, frequently used in office and warehouse buildings. "If building costs continue to rise and developers can't achieve the rents needed to cover it, then they are going to quit building and that is not going to be good for any of us."

The rest of the article can be found here:
http://southflorida.bizjournals.com/southflorida/stories/2005/06/27/story2.html
 

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Discussion Starter · #18 ·
Here we go again...

Another month...another record broken.

S. Fla. home prices continue climb in June

Along with the temperatures, South Florida home sales also heated up in June, giving the metropolitan statistical area for each county a double-digit price increase. But, in an uncommon result, local increases trailed the statewide average.

The largest local price hike was in West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, which saw the median sales price for an existing single-family home rise 30 percent to $406,800 from $312,000. The number of homes sold in the area in June declined 15 percent, though, to 1,551 homes from 1,824 homes.

The next highest price increase in South Florida was the 29 percent rise seen in Fort Lauderdale. There, the median sales price in June became $378,000, up from $292,300 in June 2004. The number of existing single-family homes sold in Fort Lauderdale also fell 15 percent, to 1,307 homes from 1,539 homes.

In Miami, existing single-family homes fetched a median $363,100 in June, up 27 percent from $285,900 for the same month the year before. The number of homes sold ticked up 2 percent, to 1,317 homes from 1,293 homes.

Jay Chernoff, chairman of the Realtor Association of Greater Miami and the Beaches and district sales manager with Keyes Co. Realtors in Aventura, said the story in Miami's housing market is supply and demand:

"There's no supply and demand is greater than ever," he said. "Homes sell quickly and usually receive multiple offers."

Statewide, a 31 percent increase in the median price brought an existing single-family home to $248,700 in Florida, up from $189,200 for June last year. The 3 percent sales decline pulled the number of homes sold to 25,455 from 26,112.

To explain the numbers, from the Florida Association of Realtors, the group said there is a continuing tight supply of homes available for sale, coupled with low mortgage rates and high demand. Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at an average of 5.58 percent last month, down from 6.29 percent in June 2004.

To show the difference in home prices, FAR said in June 2000, Florida's median sales price was $119,600. That puts the five-year increase at nearly 108 percent.

However, statewide resale activity slowed slightly from the blistering pace of recent months.
 

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Discussion Starter · #20 ·
I'm wondering if anyone, roark? has the median single family home and condo sales statistics broken down by city and area....like miami beach, miami, aventura, coral gables, kendall, homestead etc.
 
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