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http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Victoria-surges-NSW-slides/2005/03/25/1111692630384.html

Victoria surges, NSW slides

By Tim Colebatch
Economics editor
Canberra
March 26, 2005
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Sydney is losing its appeal as the place to live and work.

Victoria and Queensland have become the driving forces of Australia's growth as Sydney's high housing prices push people, jobs and economic activity away from NSW.

Figures released by the Bureau of Statistics this week show Melbourne and Brisbane have overtaken Sydney in population growth as stronger job growth and cheaper housing draw people away from Australia's biggest city.

By June, at this rate, the population of NSW will drop below a third of Australia's population for the first time.

Its slump is reflected in weak economic growth, low job growth and a steeply falling share of tourists from overseas.

In the three years to June 2004, NSW had the slowest economic growth of any state, averaging 2.5 per cent a year compared with 4.25 per cent for the rest of Australia. It has also had the slowest employment growth, 1.1 per cent a year compared with 3 per cent in the rest of the country.
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Much of this springs from a steep fall in population growth as the investor-led real estate boom lifted the price of an average house in Sydney to $520,000 before falling back. In the three years to September, NSW has averaged population growth of 0.75 per cent a year, barely half the 1.4 per cent in the rest of Australia.

"Sydney is growing slower than Hobart," says demographer Bernard Salt, author of The Big Shift. "The main reason is high property prices.

"People can't move to Sydney because the high price of a house-land package has put it out of reach. People are bouncing back to cheaper locations like Melbourne, Queensland and the coast.

"In Caroline Springs, you can buy a house-land package for $300,000, and you're only 20 kilometres from the city centre, with an extraordinary freeway network to move you around. In Sydney, you can't get a house for $300,000, let alone one within 20 kilometres of the city."

Mr Salt said the sharpest shift had been among generation Xers, people born between 1961 and 1976, many of them now looking for a place to settle and raise a family. As they were priced out of the housing market, the net movement of this age group into Sydney virtually dried up.

Even in the December quarter, the median price for a house in Sydney was $471,500, compared with $382,000 in Melbourne, and $309,000 in Brisbane, according to AMP Banking and the Real Estate Institute of Australia.

The AMP-REIA home loan affordability index shows the average Sydney family would have to spend 38.4 per cent of their weekly income to service a mortgage on an average house. In Melbourne, repayments would eat up just 29.6 per cent.

As NSW slumps, Queensland has risen to be the new powerhouse. Since Australia emerged in 2001 from its post-GST slump, Queensland has dominated growth in jobs, population, and - with Victoria - production.

In the three years to September, NSW lost 88,700 people in net migration to other states, mostly to Queensland. Queensland gained 109,042 people, mostly from NSW. Victoria gained 7336 people.

"Much of Queensland's growth for 50 years has come from NSW people moving north," Mr Salt says. "The difference in property prices enables Sydneysiders to cash in by selling their house, moving north, and having money over to put in the bank."

In this triangular contest between Australia's three main states for jobs, people and economic activity, Victoria is holding its ground or edging ahead. With 25 per cent of Australia's population, in the latest year of data Victoria had 25 per cent of growth in output, 26 per cent of population growth and 29 per cent of job growth. Melbourne has become Australia's fastest-growing city in absolute numbers. In the three years to last June, its population grew by 128,500, while Sydney added 103,800.

Over the same three years, Victoria's annual output grew by $20.3 billion, the biggest growth of any state. Production grew by $20.1 billion in Queensland and $19 billion in NSW.

The bureau's latest figures show that:

· Victoria is growing slightly faster than the national average, with its population growing 1.24 per cent in the year to September. The state's population passed 5 million in December.

· Queensland is set to pass 4 million people by the end of the year. On current trends, by 2008 one in five Australians will be a Queenslander.

· Western Australia's population will pass 2 million this month, and next year Perth will reach 1.5 million people.

· Hobart's population passed 200,000 last year, and if Tasmania's boom continues, within three years the island state will finally have 500,000 people, a number the experts thought it would never reach after its population began falling in the 1990s.

- with Farrah Tomazin
 

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Watch my Chops
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Meh melbourne is just as bad from a outside perspective. I would not move, to one of them. Melb will slow as they realize high population sucks. :runaway:
 

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NICE nice, sydney is still growing, in everything, its just loosing the growth numbers to other cities and states, i'd rather see melbourne the same size of sydney anyway, also this article, published today (saturday) states wa will 'this month" reach the 2 million mark, yet many times, and many months ago i read the same thing, thinking it has already reached the 2 million mark a few months ago already, cool perth will be 1.5 very soon :). And wow at the average house price in sydney and the 40% of whole pay to pay the morgage... man i couldnt live in sydney for sure with these prices..
 

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I am beggining to understand why ppl from Melb behave the way they do. The amount of propoganda is suprising considering its Australia. Its almost like its the Eyptian press and Sydney is the US. Kinda stupid really.
 

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^^^^^^^^^^^
I am begging to understand why Sydney media badmouths Melbourne, our office market in crisis, mass oversupply of the apartment market that wont bounce back, oh and the almighty inslut BLEAK CITY by SMH-before pointing the finger don't fail to see your own short cummings.
 
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That article makes mention of WA at the end with a few dot points but nothing in the bulk. WA is easily the 2nd fastest growing state in terms of percentage pop growth and the fastest in terms of economy yet the article breezes over the fact. It is a very selective report.
 

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mic said:
^^^^^^^^^^^
I am begging to understand why Sydney media badmouths Melbourne, our office market in crisis, mass oversupply of the apartment market that wont bounce back, oh and the almighty inslut BLEAK CITY by SMH-before pointing the finger don't fail to see your own short cummings.
Yeah you've got your points, but still i've got mine. As Homeroids states correctly the whole article is very much like propoganda. I guess that's modern journalism for you.
I agree its great to have Oz growing overall.
 

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zulu69 said:
Yeah you've got your points, but still i've got mine. As Homeroids states correctly the whole article is very much like propoganda. I guess that's modern journalism for you.
I agree its great to have Oz growing overall.
I have to dissagree that the article in question is propaganda, if it was there would be no mention of Queensland doing so well - would be all Victoria and nothing else.

Great article BTW
Over the same three years, Victoria's annual output grew by $20.3 billion, the biggest growth of any state. Production grew by $20.1 billion in Queensland and $19 billion in NSW.
^^^^
Check that out, Production in Queensland grew more than in NSW - not bad for a state of less than 4 million!!

As NSW slumps, Queensland has risen to be the new powerhouse. Since Australia emerged in 2001 from its post-GST slump, Queensland has dominated growth in jobs, population, and - with Victoria - production.
^^^^^
Great to see some changes, growth ect. I think there will be many changes, skyscrapers, infrastructure ect ect... in Queensland and in Victoria over the next few years.

jt
 

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zulu69 said:
Yeah you've got your points, but still i've got mine. As Homeroids states correctly the whole article is very much like propoganda. I guess that's modern journalism for you.
I agree its great to have Oz growing overall.
It only reads like propaganda to you because you have the sydney bias that it is the be all and end all of australia. Dont tell me that bias doesnt exist as i grew up in a sydney and i couldnt count the number of stories that would begin on the 6 o'clock news with "well we all new sydney was the greatest city in the world..." or "A new study has confirmed what we all know, the harbour city is the best in the world..."

The article may be selective in dealing with other states like WA but it clearly gives it's ABS facts for vic and qld, thats not propaganda.
 

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^^^^^^^^^

Well said. I too thought the article was well written, and made references to Queensland just as much as Victoria, it focused on the eastern states, but at the same time I didnt really find it matching some of the other drivel that comes out, which is truely propaganda.
 

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Texcoco said:
^^^^
Massive bias? The country north of the border here is starkly desolate compared to the well-tended cities on the VIC side - maybe it's time for some of our GST cash to be spent there instead of SEQ?
Why - nobody is moving to that part of the country, its 'starkly desolate' because nobody wants to move there - unlike Metro SEQ which attracts 70,000+ new residents a year (mostly from down south and they aren't gonna pay for infrastructure ect).

jt
 

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It is maybe a bit of NSW bashing but based on facts so it seems.
I remember when Victoria was on its knees in the early 1990s and the Sydney media had a field day from Bleak City to Rust bucket State ad nauseum.
Its great to see both QLD and VIC now powering ahead.
It also means that NSW will have to lift their game and not rely on pretty images and self hype to gain economic improvement.
 

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zulu69 said:
I am beggining to understand why ppl from Melb behave the way they do. The amount of propoganda is suprising considering its Australia. Its almost like its the Eyptian press and Sydney is the US. Kinda stupid really.
Melbourne votes itself most livable city in the world, AGIAN!
:runaway:
 

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OzAsian said:
It is maybe a bit of NSW bashing but based on facts so it seems.
I remember when Victoria was on its knees in the early 1990s and the Sydney media had a field day from Bleak City to Rust bucket State ad nauseum.
Its great to see both QLD and VIC now powering ahead.
It also means that NSW will have to lift their game and not rely on pretty images and self hype to gain economic improvement.
Its not a race, WA leads contrey in growth, and is booming at the seams, its yet to trickle into skyscrapers so i guess were loosing.

Your chassing a bullet.

Sydney is most know city in australia and will be for all of my life.
 
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