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According to last year's census estimates, Iowa is about 45,000 people short of hitting 3 million. It just seems that it can never hit that mark. Iowa hit the 2 million mark over 110 years ago and has struggled to gain 1 million people in that time.

Do you think its possible it will surpass 3 million by the end of the decade? I think it will happen around 2009 if Des Moines maintains its steady growth.
 

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I've heard that Iowa is one of the states that is experiencing the smallest population grow in the US.
100 years ago Iowa was the 11th most populated state in the US, and if that had continued, now Iowa would have a population of 6.9 million.
I read an article that compared the population of Iowa and Minessota, two very similar states, and it said that the main reason of the population grow of Minessota, wich was smaller than Iowa's population 100 years ago, is that they have a big Metropolis that concentrate all the power of the state.
But in Iowa we have the Capital in Des Moines and the Universities in Iowa City and Ames.
Iowans still look at Iowa City as the capital. And also many other mid-sized cities as Waterloo, Cedar Rapids, Sioux City, Davenport, etc. make that the that the state has a descentralized population, mainly located near the the two big rivers, with the exception of Des Moines.
I think that if the explosive grow of Des Moines continues probably we will have a big Metropolis that will be able to compete with Minneapolis, atracting foreign population to the state and retaining the young population here.
 

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A Minnesota forumer not too long ago posted an article that said the US census bureau says Minnesota will gain the most in population in the midwest while states like Iowa and the Dakotas will decline in population. Wisconsin and Illinois will be stagnant.

Des Moines may still gain in population and at the same percentage point it currently is at now but this wont counter the population loses in the rest of the state.

My opinion is the US Census Bureau will be proven wrong once again and Iowa will pass the 3 million mark by 2010.
 

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"Keeping Iowa's Young Folks at Home After They've Seen Minnesota"

"Lately the Iowa Legislature has been trying to find a way to solve a basic problem: how to keep young people from leaving the state. Right now, Iowa's 'brain drain' is second only to North Dakota's. The Legislature is toying with a simple idea, getting rid of state income tax for everyone under 30. This proposal was front-page news in California, where most of Iowa moved in the 1960's."

"The state's demographic dilemma wasn't caused by bad weather or high income taxes or the lack of a body of water larger than Rathbun Lake ... t was caused by the state's wholehearted, uncritical embrace of industrial agriculture, which has depopulated the countryside, destroyed the economic and social texture of small towns, and made certain that ordinary Iowans are defenseless against the pollution of factory farming."

So there is brain drain. But the following is probably also a contributing factor: Iowa is the ninth oldest state--it has a median age of 37.9, two years higher than the national average. It ranks fifth in its percentage of people aged 65 and older, and second in its percentage of people over 85. Given this, we can assume the state has a lot of deaths, which also hinder it from hitting 3 million.
 

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Iowa will hit 3 million, shortly after Chicago hit 3 million, which might be soon?

Anyways According to the thread about 2030 estimate in the US forum, Iowa will grow 48. Iowa = 0.99% from 2000-2030, not even close to hit 3 million, only 2,500,000 by 2030, which will be proven false once again.
 

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Azn_chi_boi said:
which will be proven false once again.
Well really, when it comes to the midwest, the Census Bureau has been wrong on their estimates and predictions far too many times to remain confident in anything they say.

Since you remember that thread Azn, do you remember my post about the example I used on their estimates on the Milwaukee population? According to them the city's pop in 2000 should have been around 580,000 or less but the 2000 actual count was 596,000, to me that's not even close. Close would be 590,000 or 600,000 but not 16,000 off!

The US Census Bureau simply doesn't use enough indicators to base their estimates on. They need more data.

FYI: The state of Wisconsin does their own estimates and they had estimated the 2000 Milwaukee pop to be 601,000. Higher than the actual count but alot closer than the Census Bureau's because they use more data.
 

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gronier said:
Iowans still look at Iowa City as the capital. And also many other mid-sized cities as Waterloo, Cedar Rapids, Sioux Falls, Davenport, etc. make that the that the state has a descentralized population, mainly located near the the two big rivers, with the exception of Des Moines.
Isn't Sioux Falls in South Dakota?
 

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Neph said:
A Minnesota forumer not too long ago posted an article that said the US census bureau says Minnesota will gain the most in population in the midwest while states like Iowa and the Dakotas will decline in population. Wisconsin and Illinois will be stagnant.
yeah, dont count on that ;) Illinois will be the top numerical gainer in population in the midwest, as it has been for much of this century.
 

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My guess is that it will hit 3,000,000 within 10 years. Des Moines is booming, and the Iowa City/Cedar Raoids area is as well. Plus, I heard from friends that the Mexican population in the state is exploding. Whhther ar not they will be counted in 2010 is another question.
 

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Foreign Born Population

chart of Iowa foreign born population


Iowa’s immigrant population more than doubled during the 1990s, increasing by 110 percent. Between 1990 and 2000, Iowa gained 48,000 immigrants, bringing the total number of foreign-born residents in the state to 91,000.

Demonstrating the impact of recent policies of mass immigration, 58 percent of Iowa’s immigrant population has arrived in the state since 1990.

The increase in the foreign-born population during the 1990s accounted for 32 percent of the state’s overall population increase during the decade.
 

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Iowa will hit 3,000,000 by 2010. Things are changing in Iowa, especially Des Moines. We gained over 12,500 people in the past year (9,000 in the Des Moines area alone). Iowa should easily go past that mark by 2010. We are gaining in rankings and are getting more positive press, which is only going to help growth as well. Iowa isn't the same state that it was 10 or even 5 years ago. The cities to watch for growth are Des Moines and Cedar Rapids-Iowa City.

I'm sorry...but no one I know thinks of Iowa City as Iowa's capital. It's been almost 150 years since the capital was moved.
 

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He's got a point. The lastest microtrends have been looking much more optomistic in Iowa. Immigration is obviously the primary factor to this, but this is a real coming of age period for Des Moines, a place that is just starting to come into the national limelight as much more of a player in new growth.

There are a few reasons for concern in that there are still a ton of rural counties bleeding population. Many residents in these rural areas are so old, they're heading for the golf courses of Florida or Arizona, or moving to one of the nearby metro areas in the state. A population shift that is similar to other areas of the midwest. The immigration to Iowa is slowly doing this, but Iowa HAS TO start attracting and retaining youth much better.

Call me a rosy optomist, but I think Iowa will hit 3 million mark soon after 2010 and won't be losing population after 2020 like the Census estimates predict. The state is actually doing a lot to spur the economy and keep more young people. The effects may take a decade to realize, but positive things are happening in Iowa.
 
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