[Matthias Offodile]

Naijalove, thanx for the link!

Africa´s Potential Lion Economies in the next decade

Nigeria(condition: reof Niger Delta Crisis , $30bn invested into physical infrastructure in the next three years but normally this should be no problem for Nigeria, if those conditions are met , the coming two yyears will be very crucial for Nigeria if all the major conditions are met - infrastructure, "controlled" corruption and stability - the sky is the limit:cheers: )

South Africa (it already is an emerging market)

Egypt

Algeria

Angola (the GDP of that country has spiralled upwards tremedously in the past years, it will continue to sky-rocket in the years to come)

Sudan

Morroco

Kenya

Ghana

Senegal


Africa´s potential lion baby economies

Tunisia

Botswana

Namibia

Gabon

Mauritius

Cape Verde (for tourism, financial offf-shore centre, real estate projects)

Sao Tomé (loads of oil)

Mozambique

 

[Matthias Offodile]

I chose cameroon over nigeria mainly because:

No way, Nigeria has the potential to become and African Lion!
Personally, I don´t think that Cameroon will make it (high level of corruption, disunity between anglophone and francophone part of Cameroon, who comes after Paul Biya is gone ????, high levels of internal and external indebtedness, decaying infrastructure etc.). When it comes to investmenst, everyone would eye Nigeria over Cameroon. (this is no attack against Cameroon)

 

[Matthias Offodile]

Naija, "African Lion" is a catchword coined for Africa´s (potential) emerging markets which is akin to South East Asian tiger economies!

 

[Matthias Offodile]

I'll put it down to this.

I Project that the economy of Nigeria will grow at 15% in 2010 and 20% in 2015. The Niger Delta Crisis seems to be nearing Resolution, and Nigeria's Non Oil Sector is now makes up a bigger percentage of The GDP of Nigeria. Hence I think that Nigeria, Egypt and Sudan will become the Investment Hub of Africa. Nigeria has the fastest Return of investment in Africa, 2nd Fastest Investment Rate. With Political Stability, alleviation of Poverty, Capitalization of the Non Oil Sector, Nigeria will surely be places.

P.S The Low HDI of Nigeria is to do largely with the Population growth rate surpassing that of the GDP Growth rate. However Nigeria's economy has grown consistently and steadily in the last 4 or 5 years, so the HDI will probably improve.

2nd P.S Nigeria is safer than most people Speculate. There is a bigger chance of being struck by lightning than Dying in the Niger Delta. In fact The Niger Delta is safer than Lagos.

My 2 cents on Angola.
Angola will probably become a Regional Hub and the Shoulder of South West Africa. The economy will continue to grow, but the economy might eventually decline due to a lack of expertise, particularly in the Tertiary sector.

I can largely subscribe to what you said!

Only two remarks:

Where did you hear from that Nigeria´s non-oil sector makes up a bigger percentage of its GDP? That´s new to me! Unfortunately, Naija is still heavily depenedent on oil and gas! As far as an increase in non-oil production is concerned, yes, you are right, this has occured but its percentage on the GDP scale is still marginal

Angola: I don´t think that the economy will decline due to lack of expertise, I talked to a few guys on SSC and from what I read, no Angola is something like a "gold rush" country and more and more people are beginning to set foot in the tertiary sector. You get a lot of well educated Angolan people abroad, you have got the tons of expats for the time being ( some of whom might eventually make up their mind to create their own business in Angola, in Africa many people came first as experts but decided to stay) and do not forget the growing number of so-called "retornandos", people that all bring their knowledge to Angola. So a declining economy which means minus growth won´t happen in Angola, the economy will most likely slow but not for the time being! (for the next five years)
__________________

 

[Matthias Offodile]

you should also take population into consideration,Nigeria having 17 millions of her citizens in diaspora is such a giant and strong as another country,remitting billions of dollars back into their Nigeria.

an important factor, indeed!

 

[Matthias Offodile]

those HDI figures are old...Alex Roney posted the new figures for 2008!!