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Which countries will emerge as the "African Lion" Economies

63318 Views 344 Replies 104 Participants Last post by  mouadh25
Now that African economies are growing faster then ever:banana: . Which countries in Africa do you think will emerge as the "African Lion":cheers: economies and industrialize first. I think that South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and if they could get things together Nigeria.
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Ghana, Kenya, South Africa,Angola, Cameroon, Sudan.

Lion Cubs: Eq. Guinea, Gabon, Botswana, Namibia. Like the lions, but too small to make as big an impact even though they to will grow and industrialize.
I had always thought it would be SSA by default(typically is...), but if I were including North Africa I'd add Algeria, Tunisia and Egypt. Most of North Africa is already pretty industrialized in any case, but those 3 countries I think could really jump ahead. Egypt is getting a lot of investment-I'm hearing about a bunch of new car factories and the like going up there, and they even signed a contract recently to manufacture 80 chinese military jets.

I chose cameroon over nigeria mainly because:

1. it has a higher standard of human development already, having entered the medium development of the Human Development index a while ago, while Nigeria will still take maybe a decade to get there, if not more.

2. Cameroon seems a bit more stable. Nigeria is having far too many problems with internecine conflict for me to get too excited about it becoming an African lion just like that. We all know Nigeria can become an African lion IF it gets things together. That is a really big if.

Once it finally resolves all of this conflict, gets the poverty rate below 50%, and finally shows that it is even close to realizing its true potential(larger increases in GDP, an improvement with regards to world corruption rankings, etc, etc), I'll call it an African lion. That could happen in a decade or so. Right now? No.
Those countries are already in better shape overall than Nigeria, so by the time Nigeria does get it together, they will have already become the African lions(or lion cubs). Hence, I put their names up there instead.

I am somewhat optimistic now about Nigeria(although cautiously). The new president seems like he'll be better than the last to, given the fact that he is confident and he is actually literate with a college education. And despite the issues with Nigeria today, its HDI has been increasing:

Human development index, 1975 0.317
Human development index, 1980 0.376
Human development index, 1985 0.387
Human development index, 1990 0.407
Human development index, 1995 0.419
Human development index, 2000 0.433
Human development index, 2004 0.448

Which is a good thing. The problem is, those other countries are already ahead. Hence, they'll be the first African Lions, and Nigeria will follow them.
Dante, I agree with your selections but I have a question, why Cameroon over Nigeria ?

What about North-Africa are they skipped on this thread ? Only SSA ?
At this point, Sudan has for the most part managed to resolve the conflict, and the stability incurred by this is leading to a higher growth rate.

Sudan has a higher index of human development than Nigeria.

Sudan has a growth rate nearly 3 times that of Nigeria(as of 2006).

hence, yes, I included Sudan and left out Nigeria.
LOL... who are you all fooling? You chose Sudan with all the problems in Darfur and you left out Nigeria?
Of course Nigeria does, but the question asked about who would be the first nations to make it.

No way, Nigeria has the potential to become and African Lion!
Personally, I don´t think that Cameroon will make it (high level of corruption, disunity between anglophone and francophone part of Cameroon, who comes after Paul Biya is gone ????, high levels of internal and external indebtedness, decaying infrastructure etc.)
If I'm not mistaken...doesn't Nigeria have those same problems? I mean, Nigeria may lack the issue of indebtedness-they've done a decent job with that so far, but then they have other unique issues like the Niger Delta and the like. That, and Cameroon still has a higher living standard.

Are you sure that Cameroon isn't ahead right now, even slightly?

. When it comes to investmenst, everyone would eye Nigeria over Cameroon. (this is no attack against Cameroon)
Nigeria does have a much bigger market, but it isn't like it lacks its own problems as well.
I got my number from the world factboo, which said the growth rate was 5.3% for Nigeria in 2006.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ni.html

Sudan is at about 13% right now, which is nearly 15%, or 3 times as much. Of course, I should probably work on finding the 2007 growth rates for Nigeria...the Sudan number is from 07, but the Nigeria one is not.

Until then, take that statement with a grain of salt.
So Sudan's growth rate was 21% last year?
Like I said, take the statement with a grain of salt.

BTW, what are the factors, specifically?
You have to take proportions into consideration when you’re gauging economic growth.

So even if the figures were correct, it still doesn’t reflect that which you’re trying to portray, due to numerous factors.
Good points on the first one...I don't see your point on the 3rd one. Isn't GDP somewhat of a measure of the productivity of a nation overall? Can you explain that further?
Population; Density, GDP.
You are trying to make Nigeria seem, somehow, so much more stable than Sudan.

I don't see that being the case.

PEOPLE ARE STILL DYING IN DARFUR!! THEY HAVE NOT RESOLVED ANYTHING!! If you listened to any news, the militants have called a cease fire in Niger Delta and released 12 hostages so far. And no one if any dies due to Niger-Delta in Nigeria. Get out of here with that nonsense!!
Again only 2 countries in Africa, Nigeria and Egypt were predicted to beat Italy in GDP by 2015 by Goldman Sach's

http://www2.goldmansachs.com/hkchina/insight/research/pdf/BRICs_3_12-1-05.pdf
I don't think your article said 2015, mate.

Appendix 4 on your pdf shows the predictions for future GDP. Nigeria is not projected to outdo italy by that date at all. On page 8 of the document, th graph indicates that Nigeria will not surpass Italy in 2025, much less 2015. Neither will Egypt.

Nigeria will manage to become a larger economy by 2050, which only makes sense since it is projected to have 356,523,597 at that point, around 7 times what italy will possess according to projections.

Naturally, it will be the larger economy by then. But for Nigeria to somehow surpass Italy in GDP by 2015, it would somehow need to go from a GDP of just about $200 billion now, up to about $2 trillion(which is what italy has).

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/it.html

Pardon me for sounding a tad skeptical. Your surce says Nigeria will have a higher GDP by 2050, not 2015.

HDI Predicted how many Asian Tigers? Did HDI predict CHINA jumping to the front of the Pack and Jumping infront of the whole world in growth?
Just about, yes. They lifted 400 million people out of poverty in just around 2 and a half decades.
Has Nigeria done such a thing yet?

Here, let me give you an example:

India

Human development index, 1975 0.413
Human development index, 1980 0.439
Human development index, 1985 0.477
Human development index, 1990 0.515
Human development index, 1995 0.548
Human development index, 2000 0.577
Human development index, 2004 0.611

China

Human development index, 1975 0.527
Human development index, 1980 0.560
Human development index, 1985 0.596
Human development index, 1990 0.628
Human development index, 1995 0.685
Human development index, 2000 0.730
Human development index, 2004 0.768

South Korea:

Human development index, 1975 0.712
Human development index, 1980 0.746
Human development index, 1985 0.785
Human development index, 1990 0.823
Human development index, 1995 0.860
Human development index, 2000 0.890
Human development index, 2004 0.912


Those are all some really big jumps in HDI. Note how 3 of the largest Asian tigers all show massive increases in human development, which is what specifically fuels continued economic growth.

Nigeria:

Human development index, 1975 0.317
Human development index, 1980 0.376
Human development index, 1985 0.387
Human development index, 1990 0.407
Human development index, 1995 0.419
Human development index, 2000 0.433
Human development index, 2004 0.448

Granted, nigeria is improving, and it should be given credit for that. But the fact is that it is not improving at the rate seen by those "asian tigers". If Nigeria wants to be an African lion, then it would have to work on that. I don't see it happening there before other countries in Africa manage to do it.

You are no specialist in or student of Economics. Have you heard of Post-War/Crisis reconstruction?
Of course not, I'm only barely 16. I'm simply going by what I can so far, and I think my conclusions are perfectly valid.
In any case, you make a good point.

And you are a Nonentity.
Um, ok.:)

Is that link all you have to go on?

Nigeria's GDP will not hit $2 trillion by 2015, man. hence, it will not surpass Italy by that date. it will only do so in 2050. Accept it already.:eek:hno:
Ok, I hope so to, then.

Not SEEM. It IS. No offense to Sudanese. But you have lost all forms of credibility and lack of bias by even comparing Nigeria to the case of Darfur. Last I heard, the world is screaming about Darfur not Nigeria. Nigerian president has managed to make the militants come to the table in his first days in office. I can only see Nigeria shooting for the stars from there.
2050. But it must shock you that Nigeria was mentioned. Nigeria of all places right? Why not Liberia, Rwanda and Burundi right?
Um...no, it doesn't? Nigeria is one of the most populous African countries, so naturally they would be mentioned over any place like Rwanda or urundi, and definitely over Liberia.

I think now you're just getting personal with this.

Yeah, it's 2050. And that was even based on conservative estimates from 2001 before the reform programs in Nigeria were fully entrenched.
So, why did you say 2015?

Don't try to rationalize on good news. I thought you love to see good things coming out of Africa. Damn..does it hurt you this badly?
I don't understand you.

Why am I not fazed? Because you CIA files does not talk of the growth policies and strategies of Nigeria. The Goldman Sach's report does. :banana:
Uh, the CIA data is a measure of how the country is doing right now economically. It might not be the best idea to completely ignore it...

Sure. But it also places Nigeria as the foremost in Africa doesn't it? You read the article!
I guess, in terms of GDP.

Dude, this is 2007. We just emerged from bad governments that mortgaged our Nation. I will say we are where India was in the 1980s. Nigeria IS the future!
Yeah, but that is the point. Nigeria has to recover from all of that. There are other nations in Africa who are, as a result, ahead a little when it comes to their chances of becoming African lions. That's why I don't think nigeria will be first. Give it 2 decades, maybe, but even then they have to curb population growth as well and find a way to provide a higher standard of living for the people. That is going to take more time, I think.

LOL...Your argument lacks any credibility. The slow growth was largely due to living under military rule where the elite sent Nigerian funds to Western nations. We are only beginning to aggresively pursue policies that saw the massive growth of HDI in India. It even reinforces my point that we are right now where India was in the 80s. The sky is now the limit.
Ok, and I don't think i denied that. The reason I didn't include Nigeria was because of those past troubles that I believe will limit them from being among the FIRST nations to become African lions-Other nations already have a head start.

We will now be pursuing in this new Administration:
(1) Aggressive Land policies, with land as loan collateral to help entrepreneurs
(2) Zero interest micro-loans for small businesses
(3) Aggressive resolution to power crisis
(4) Aggressive build up of our Education sector to churn out top quality candidates
(5) Pursuit of satellite technology and even a buy out of the African regional satellite commission.
Ok, good, I'm not denying that.

Yep, Nigeria MUST come last with no explanation whatsoever.
Dude, c'mon-you yourself stated that Nigeria is having issues right now because of the past governments. You also said that Nigeria is where India was in the 80's. That means that there are going to be some African nations who are going to be ahead of it, and who might become lions earlier.

I'm not trying to slander Nigeria, I'm just stating my observations. I don't think they are invalid.

LOL...could you loose any more credibility?
Because I don't agree with you, i don't have any credibility?

Why should I. We have a new government with even more exciting policies and who is bent on improving quality of life to ensure the support of all Nigerians. I say, you watch the space called Nigeria in 4 years time.
Ok, fine.
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