Which countries will emerge as the "African Lion" Economies

Here is the Africa's ranking list according to HDI-2006.
http://hdr.undp.org/hdr2006/statistics/

63. Mauritius
64. Libyan Arab Jamahiriya
87. Tunisia
102. Algeria
106. Cape Verde
111. Egypt
120. Equatorial Guinea
121. South Africa
123. Morocco
124. Gabon
125. Namibia
127. São Tomé and Principe
131. Botswana
132. Comoros
136. Ghana
140. Congo
141. Sudan
143. Madagascar
144. Cameroon
145. Uganda
146. Swaziland
147. Togo
148. Djibouti
149. Lesotho
151. Zimbabwe
152. Kenya
153. Mauritania
155. Gambia
156. Senegal
157. Eritrea
158. Rwanda
159. Nigeria
160. Guinea
161. Angola
162. Tanzania, U. Rep. of
163. Benin
164. Côte d'Ivoire
165. Zambia
166. Malawi
167. DRC
168. Mozambique
169. Burundi
170. Ethiopia
171. Chad
172. Central African Republic
173. Guinea-Bissau
174. Burkina Faso
175. Mali
176. Sierra Leone
177. Niger

naijalove said:

LOL... who are you all fooling? You chose Sudan with all the problems in Darfur and you left out Nigeria?

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At this point, Sudan has for the most part managed to resolve the conflict, and the stability incurred by this is leading to a higher growth rate.

Sudan has a higher index of human development than Nigeria.

Sudan has a growth rate nearly 3 times that of Nigeria(as of 2006).

hence, yes, I included Sudan and left out Nigeria.

DanteXavier said:

At this point, Sudan has for the most part managed to resolve the conflict, and the stability incurred by this is leading to a higher growth rate.

Sudan has a higher index of human development than Nigeria.

Sudan has a growth rate nearly 3 times that of Nigeria(as of 2006).

hence, yes, I included Sudan and left out Nigeria.

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So Sudan's growth rate was 21% last year?

Matthias Offodile said:

No way, Nigeria has the potential to become and African Lion!

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Of course Nigeria does, but the question asked about who would be the first nations to make it.

Personally, I don´t think that Cameroon will make it (high level of corruption, disunity between anglophone and francophone part of Cameroon, who comes after Paul Biya is gone ????, high levels of internal and external indebtedness, decaying infrastructure etc.)

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If I'm not mistaken...doesn't Nigeria have those same problems? I mean, Nigeria may lack the issue of indebtedness-they've done a decent job with that so far, but then they have other unique issues like the Niger Delta and the like. That, and Cameroon still has a higher living standard.

Are you sure that Cameroon isn't ahead right now, even slightly?

. When it comes to investmenst, everyone would eye Nigeria over Cameroon. (this is no attack against Cameroon)

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Nigeria does have a much bigger market, but it isn't like it lacks its own problems as well.

IgboWarrior said:

So Sudan's growth rate was 21% last year?

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I got my number from the world factboo, which said the growth rate was 5.3% for Nigeria in 2006.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ni.html

Sudan is at about 13% right now, which is nearly 15%, or 3 times as much. Of course, I should probably work on finding the 2007 growth rates for Nigeria...the Sudan number is from 07, but the Nigeria one is not.

Until then, take that statement with a grain of salt.

DanteXavier said:

I got my number from the world factboo, which said the growth rate was 5.3% for Nigeria in 2006.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ni.html

Sudan is at about 13% right now, which is nearly 15%, or 3 times as much. Of course, I should probably work on finding the 2007 growth rates for Nigeria...the Sudan number is from 07, but the Nigeria one is not.

Until then, take that statement with a grain of salt.

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You have to take proportions into consideration when you’re gauging economic growth.

So even if the figures were correct, it still doesn’t reflect that which you’re trying to portray, due to numerous factors.

IgboWarrior said:

You have to take proportions into consideration when you’re gauging economic growth.

So even if the figures were correct, it still doesn’t reflect that which you’re trying to portray, due to numerous factors.

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Like I said, take the statement with a grain of salt.

BTW, what are the factors, specifically?

DanteXavier said:

At this point, Sudan has for the most part managed to resolve the conflict, and the stability incurred by this is leading to a higher growth rate.

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PEOPLE ARE STILL DYING IN DARFUR!! THEY HAVE NOT RESOLVED ANYTHING!! If you listened to any news, the militants have called a cease fire in Niger Delta and released 12 hostages so far. And no one if any dies due to Niger-Delta in Nigeria. Get out of here with that nonsense!!

Again only 2 countries in Africa, Nigeria and Egypt were predicted to beat Italy in GDP by 2015 by Goldman Sach's

http://www2.goldmansachs.com/hkchina/insight/research/pdf/BRICs_3_12-1-05.pdf

Sudan has a higher index of human development than Nigeria.

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HDI Predicted how many Asian Tigers? Did HDI predict CHINA jumping to the front of the Pack and Jumping infront of the whole world in growth?

Again only 2 countries in Africa, Nigeria and Egypt were predicted to beat Italy in GDP by 2015 by Goldman Sach's

http://www2.goldmansachs.com/hkchina/insight/research/pdf/BRICs_3_12-1-05.pdf

Sudan has a growth rate nearly 3 times that of Nigeria(as of 2006).

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You are no specialist in or student of Economics. Have you heard of Post-War/Crisis reconstruction?

Again only 2 countries in Africa, Nigeria and Egypt were predicted to beat Italy in GDP by 2015 by Goldman Sach's

http://www2.goldmansachs.com/hkchina/insight/research/pdf/BRICs_3_12-1-05.pdf

hence, yes, I included Sudan and left out Nigeria.

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And you are a Nonentity.

Again only 2 countries in Africa, Nigeria and Egypt were predicted to beat Italy in GDP by 2015 by Goldman Sach's

http://www2.goldmansachs.com/hkchina/insight/research/pdf/BRICs_3_12-1-05.pdf

naijalove said:

PEOPLE ARE STILL DYING IN DARFUR!! THEY HAVE NOT RESOLVED ANYTHING!! If you listened to any news, the militants have called a cease fire in Niger Delta and released 12 hostages so far. And no one if any dies due to Niger-Delta in Nigeria. Get out of here with that nonsense!!

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You are trying to make Nigeria seem, somehow, so much more stable than Sudan.

I don't see that being the case.

Again only 2 countries in Africa, Nigeria and Egypt were predicted to beat Italy in GDP by 2015 by Goldman Sach's

http://www2.goldmansachs.com/hkchina/insight/research/pdf/BRICs_3_12-1-05.pdf

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I don't think your article said 2015, mate.

Appendix 4 on your pdf shows the predictions for future GDP. Nigeria is not projected to outdo italy by that date at all. On page 8 of the document, th graph indicates that Nigeria will not surpass Italy in 2025, much less 2015. Neither will Egypt.

Nigeria will manage to become a larger economy by 2050, which only makes sense since it is projected to have 356,523,597 at that point, around 7 times what italy will possess according to projections.

Naturally, it will be the larger economy by then. But for Nigeria to somehow surpass Italy in GDP by 2015, it would somehow need to go from a GDP of just about $200 billion now, up to about $2 trillion(which is what italy has).

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/it.html

Pardon me for sounding a tad skeptical. Your surce says Nigeria will have a higher GDP by 2050, not 2015.

HDI Predicted how many Asian Tigers? Did HDI predict CHINA jumping to the front of the Pack and Jumping infront of the whole world in growth?

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Just about, yes. They lifted 400 million people out of poverty in just around 2 and a half decades.
Has Nigeria done such a thing yet?

Here, let me give you an example:

India

Human development index, 1975 0.413
Human development index, 1980 0.439
Human development index, 1985 0.477
Human development index, 1990 0.515
Human development index, 1995 0.548
Human development index, 2000 0.577
Human development index, 2004 0.611

China

Human development index, 1975 0.527
Human development index, 1980 0.560
Human development index, 1985 0.596
Human development index, 1990 0.628
Human development index, 1995 0.685
Human development index, 2000 0.730
Human development index, 2004 0.768

South Korea:

Human development index, 1975 0.712
Human development index, 1980 0.746
Human development index, 1985 0.785
Human development index, 1990 0.823
Human development index, 1995 0.860
Human development index, 2000 0.890
Human development index, 2004 0.912


Those are all some really big jumps in HDI. Note how 3 of the largest Asian tigers all show massive increases in human development, which is what specifically fuels continued economic growth.

Nigeria:

Human development index, 1975 0.317
Human development index, 1980 0.376
Human development index, 1985 0.387
Human development index, 1990 0.407
Human development index, 1995 0.419
Human development index, 2000 0.433
Human development index, 2004 0.448

Granted, nigeria is improving, and it should be given credit for that. But the fact is that it is not improving at the rate seen by those "asian tigers". If Nigeria wants to be an African lion, then it would have to work on that. I don't see it happening there before other countries in Africa manage to do it.

You are no specialist in or student of Economics. Have you heard of Post-War/Crisis reconstruction?

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Of course not, I'm only barely 16. I'm simply going by what I can so far, and I think my conclusions are perfectly valid.
In any case, you make a good point.

And you are a Nonentity.

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Um, ok.

http://www2.goldmansachs.com/hkchina/insight/research/pdf/BRICs_3_12-1-05.pdf

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Is that link all you have to go on?

Nigeria's GDP will not hit $2 trillion by 2015, man. hence, it will not surpass Italy by that date. it will only do so in 2050. Accept it already.hno:

I'm getting this feeling of Deja Vu. Seems like all this has happened before.

I'll put it down to this.

I Project that the economy of Nigeria will grow at 15% in 2010 and 20% in 2015. The Niger Delta Crisis seems to be nearing Resolution, and Nigeria's Non Oil Sector is now makes up a bigger percentage of The GDP of Nigeria. Hence I think that Nigeria, Egypt and Sudan will become the Investment Hub of Africa. Nigeria has the fastest Return of investment in Africa, 2nd Fastest Investment Rate. With Political Stability, alleviation of Poverty, Capitalization of the Non Oil Sector, Nigeria will surely be places.

P.S The Low HDI of Nigeria is to do largely with the Population growth rate surpassing that of the GDP Growth rate. However Nigeria's economy has grown consistently and steadily in the last 4 or 5 years, so the HDI will probably improve.

2nd P.S Nigeria is safer than most people Speculate. There is a bigger chance of being struck by lightning than Dying in the Niger Delta. In fact The Niger Delta is safer than Lagos.

My 2 cents on Angola.
Angola will probably become a Regional Hub and the Shoulder of South West Africa. The economy will continue to grow, but the economy might eventually decline due to a lack of expertise, particularly in the Tertiary sector.

naijalove said:

PEOPLE ARE STILL DYING IN DARFUR!! THEY HAVE NOT RESOLVED ANYTHING!! If you listened to any news, the militants have called a cease fire in Niger Delta and released 12 hostages so far. And no one if any dies due to Niger-Delta in Nigeria. Get out of here with that nonsense!!

Again only 2 countries in Africa, Nigeria and Egypt were predicted to beat Italy in GDP by 2015 by Goldman Sach's

http://www2.goldmansachs.com/hkchina/insight/research/pdf/BRICs_3_12-1-05.pdf




HDI Predicted how many Asian Tigers? Did HDI predict CHINA jumping to the front of the Pack and Jumping infront of the whole world in growth?

Again only 2 countries in Africa, Nigeria and Egypt were predicted to beat Italy in GDP by 2015 by Goldman Sach's

http://www2.goldmansachs.com/hkchina/insight/research/pdf/BRICs_3_12-1-05.pdf



You are no specialist in or student of Economics. Have you heard of Post-War/Crisis reconstruction?

Again only 2 countries in Africa, Nigeria and Egypt were predicted to beat Italy in GDP by 2015 by Goldman Sach's

http://www2.goldmansachs.com/hkchina/insight/research/pdf/BRICs_3_12-1-05.pdf



And you are a Nonentity.

Again only 2 countries in Africa, Nigeria and Egypt were predicted to beat Italy in GDP by 2015 by Goldman Sach's

http://www2.goldmansachs.com/hkchina/insight/research/pdf/BRICs_3_12-1-05.pdf

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man ur trying a little 2 hard....:lol:

Nigeria will not surpass italy in 2015...i don't know where did you get that from bcz the article you keep on posting doesn't say so.

sudan which have 100 million people less than nigeria is attracting almost the same amount of FDI...just from asian countries as most western companies are touchy about darfur.....however the U.N peace keeping force will be deployed to darfur this month and peace talks are underway....western companies are ready to jump in...Total is already in their way to sudan.

sudan growth rate has been above 6 percent for the last 10 years.

No matter how much nigeria grow it's GDP per capita will not get that much boost bcz it's population is very big and it's starting at a low GDP.

i wish the best for nigeria but don't let your dreams fool you....sudan will get their before nigeria if groth rates continue at the same level for both countries.

IF ANY COUNTRY BECOMES AN AFRICAN TIGER. WE SHOULD ALL BE HAPPY FOR THAT COUNTRY. WHATEVER IS GOOD FOR DRC, LIBERIA, ETC, IS GOOD FOR ALL AFRICA AND WHATEVER IS BAD FOR SOUTH AFRICA,NIGERIA, ALGERIA, EGYPT, ETC IS BAD FOR THE WHOLE OF AFRICA.
I HOPE YOU GUYS WILL STOP ARGUING AND START POSTING DEVELOPMENTS IN RESPECTIVE REGIONS. I'VE NOTICED WHENEVER A TOPIC COMES UP EVERYBODY STOP POSTING DEVELOPMENTS AND SPEND TIME ARGUING ABOUT THINGS WE DONE HAVE CONTROL OVER.

DanteXavier said:

You are trying to make Nigeria seem, somehow, so much more stable than Sudan.

I don't see that being the case.

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Not SEEM. It IS. No offense to Sudanese. But you have lost all forms of credibility and lack of bias by even comparing Nigeria to the case of Darfur. Last I heard, the world is screaming about Darfur not Nigeria. Nigerian president has managed to make the militants come to the table in his first days in office. I can only see Nigeria shooting for the stars from there.

I don't think your article said 2015, mate.

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2050. But it must shock you that Nigeria was mentioned. Nigeria of all places right? Why not Liberia, Rwanda and Burundi right?

Appendix 4 on your pdf shows the predictions for future GDP. Nigeria is not projected to outdo italy by that date at all. On page 8 of the document, th graph indicates that Nigeria will not surpass Italy in 2025, much less 2015. Neither will Egypt.

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Yeah, it's 2050. And that was even based on conservative estimates from 2001 before the reform programs in Nigeria were fully entrenched.

2050.
Nigeria will manage to become a larger economy by 2050, which only makes sense since it is projected to have 356,523,597 at that point, around 7 times what italy will possess according to projections.

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Don't try to rationalize on good news. I thought you love to see good things coming out of Africa. Damn..does it hurt you this badly?

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/it.html

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Why am I not fazed? Because you CIA files does not talk of the growth policies and strategies of Nigeria. The Goldman Sach's report does. :banana:

Pardon me for sounding a tad skeptical. Your surce says Nigeria will have a higher GDP by 2050, not 2015.

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Sure. But it also places Nigeria as the foremost in Africa doesn't it? You read the article!

Just about, yes. They lifted 400 million people out of poverty in just around 2 and a half decades.
Has Nigeria done such a thing yet?

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Dude, this is 2007. We just emerged from bad governments that mortgaged our Nation. I will say we are where India was in the 1980s. Nigeria IS the future!

Here, let me give you an example:

India


Human development index, 1980 0.439


Nigeria:

....
Human development index, 2004 0.448

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LOL...Your argument lacks any credibility. The slow growth was largely due to living under military rule where the elite sent Nigerian funds to Western nations. We are only beginning to aggresively pursue policies that saw the massive growth of HDI in India. It even reinforces my point that we are right now where India was in the 80s. The sky is now the limit.

We will now be pursuing in this new Administration:
(1) Aggressive Land policies, with land as loan collateral to help entrepreneurs
(2) Zero interest micro-loans for small businesses
(3) Aggressive resolution to power crisis
(4) Aggressive build up of our Education sector to churn out top quality candidates
(5) Pursuit of satellite technology and even a buy out of the African regional satellite commission.

I don't see it happening there before other countries in Africa manage to do it.

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Yep, Nigeria MUST come last with no explanation whatsoever.

Of course not, I'm only barely 16. I'm simply going by what I can so far, and I think my conclusions are perfectly valid.
In any case, you make a good point.

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LOL...could you loose any more credibility?

Um, ok.



Is that link all you have to go on?

Nigeria's GDP will not hit $2 trillion by 2015, man. hence, it will not surpass Italy by that date. it will only do so in 2050. Accept it already.hno:

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Why should I. We have a new government with even more exciting policies and who is bent on improving quality of life to ensure the support of all Nigerians. I say, you watch the space called Nigeria in 4 years time.