Which countries will emerge as the "African Lion" Economies

naijalove said:

Not SEEM. It IS. No offense to Sudanese. But you have lost all forms of credibility and lack of bias by even comparing Nigeria to the case of Darfur. Last I heard, the world is screaming about Darfur not Nigeria. Nigerian president has managed to make the militants come to the table in his first days in office. I can only see Nigeria shooting for the stars from there.

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Ok, I hope so to, then.

2050. But it must shock you that Nigeria was mentioned. Nigeria of all places right? Why not Liberia, Rwanda and Burundi right?

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Um...no, it doesn't? Nigeria is one of the most populous African countries, so naturally they would be mentioned over any place like Rwanda or urundi, and definitely over Liberia.

I think now you're just getting personal with this.

Yeah, it's 2050. And that was even based on conservative estimates from 2001 before the reform programs in Nigeria were fully entrenched.

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So, why did you say 2015?

Don't try to rationalize on good news. I thought you love to see good things coming out of Africa. Damn..does it hurt you this badly?

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I don't understand you.

Why am I not fazed? Because you CIA files does not talk of the growth policies and strategies of Nigeria. The Goldman Sach's report does. :banana:

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Uh, the CIA data is a measure of how the country is doing right now economically. It might not be the best idea to completely ignore it...

Sure. But it also places Nigeria as the foremost in Africa doesn't it? You read the article!

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I guess, in terms of GDP.

Dude, this is 2007. We just emerged from bad governments that mortgaged our Nation. I will say we are where India was in the 1980s. Nigeria IS the future!

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Yeah, but that is the point. Nigeria has to recover from all of that. There are other nations in Africa who are, as a result, ahead a little when it comes to their chances of becoming African lions. That's why I don't think nigeria will be first. Give it 2 decades, maybe, but even then they have to curb population growth as well and find a way to provide a higher standard of living for the people. That is going to take more time, I think.

LOL...Your argument lacks any credibility. The slow growth was largely due to living under military rule where the elite sent Nigerian funds to Western nations. We are only beginning to aggresively pursue policies that saw the massive growth of HDI in India. It even reinforces my point that we are right now where India was in the 80s. The sky is now the limit.

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Ok, and I don't think i denied that. The reason I didn't include Nigeria was because of those past troubles that I believe will limit them from being among the FIRST nations to become African lions-Other nations already have a head start.

We will now be pursuing in this new Administration:
(1) Aggressive Land policies, with land as loan collateral to help entrepreneurs
(2) Zero interest micro-loans for small businesses
(3) Aggressive resolution to power crisis
(4) Aggressive build up of our Education sector to churn out top quality candidates
(5) Pursuit of satellite technology and even a buy out of the African regional satellite commission.

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Ok, good, I'm not denying that.

Yep, Nigeria MUST come last with no explanation whatsoever.

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Dude, c'mon-you yourself stated that Nigeria is having issues right now because of the past governments. You also said that Nigeria is where India was in the 80's. That means that there are going to be some African nations who are going to be ahead of it, and who might become lions earlier.

I'm not trying to slander Nigeria, I'm just stating my observations. I don't think they are invalid.

LOL...could you loose any more credibility?

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Because I don't agree with you, i don't have any credibility?

Why should I. We have a new government with even more exciting policies and who is bent on improving quality of life to ensure the support of all Nigerians. I say, you watch the space called Nigeria in 4 years time.

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Ok, fine.

I'll put it down to this.

I Project that the economy of Nigeria will grow at 15% in 2010 and 20% in 2015. The Niger Delta Crisis seems to be nearing Resolution, and Nigeria's Non Oil Sector is now makes up a bigger percentage of The GDP of Nigeria. Hence I think that Nigeria, Egypt and Sudan will become the Investment Hub of Africa. Nigeria has the fastest Return of investment in Africa, 2nd Fastest Investment Rate. With Political Stability, alleviation of Poverty, Capitalization of the Non Oil Sector, Nigeria will surely be places.

P.S The Low HDI of Nigeria is to do largely with the Population growth rate surpassing that of the GDP Growth rate. However Nigeria's economy has grown consistently and steadily in the last 4 or 5 years, so the HDI will probably improve.

2nd P.S Nigeria is safer than most people Speculate. There is a bigger chance of being struck by lightning than Dying in the Niger Delta. In fact The Niger Delta is safer than Lagos.

My 2 cents on Angola.
Angola will probably become a Regional Hub and the Shoulder of South West Africa. The economy will continue to grow, but the economy might eventually decline due to a lack of expertise, particularly in the Tertiary sector.

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I can largely subscribe to what you said!

Only two remarks:

Where did you hear from that Nigeria´s non-oil sector makes up a bigger percentage of its GDP? That´s new to me! Unfortunately, Naija is still heavily depenedent on oil and gas! As far as an increase in non-oil production is concerned, yes, you are right, this has occured but its percentage on the GDP scale is still marginal

Angola: I don´t think that the economy will decline due to lack of expertise, I talked to a few guys on SSC and from what I read, no Angola is something like a "gold rush" country and more and more people are beginning to set foot in the tertiary sector. You get a lot of well educated Angolan people abroad, you have got the tons of expats for the time being ( some of whom might eventually make up their mind to create their own business in Angola, in Africa many people came first as experts but decided to stay) and do not forget the growing number of so-called "retornandos", people that all bring their knowledge to Angola. So a declining economy which means minus growth won´t happen in Angola, the economy will most likely slow but not for the time being! (for the next five years)
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DanteXavier said:

Like I said, take the statement with a grain of salt.

BTW, what are the factors, specifically?

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you should also take population into consideration,Nigeria having 17 millions of her citizens in diaspora is such a giant and strong as another country,remitting billions of dollars back into their Nigeria.

What’s the point in sitting here and having a debate about the economic projections of African nations, notably Nigeria, when some people are comparing the incident in the Niger Delta to the situation in Durfar. Objectivity is lacking, this is more like an attack on Nigeria and Nigerians.

Oh…and, the oil sector makes up 40% of Nigeria’s GDP and 90% of its foreign exchange earnings.

WOW this again... ok listen let just to put this to rest ok instead of arguing about which conutry is going to be developed first ya'll are missing the point everyone of the debators. Can't u see that every country in africa is changing wether it be nigeria, sudan whatever africa is reaching the stage where not jsut one, two but nearly 10-18 countries are having magnificent economic progress. so why the argument about who will be developed first.. it's pointless. No doubt this kind of threads have shown the competitive spirit in Africans but we are competing against each other for the wrong reasons and dats why africa turned into an eyesore....


If u ask me if i were to walk into this thread only one word would come to my mind CHAOS, and just like the continent we argue over small things and forget about other important things like development blabla...

just a heasd up

^^ I looked at Kenya's GDP trend and noticed a very significant rise of GDP since 2003.

0.6% (real -1.6%) in 2002 to 3% in 2003, 4.9% in 2004, 5.8% in 2005 and 6% in 2006. GDP growth of 7% in is projected for 2007

2002- 0.6%
2003- 3%
2004- 4.9%
2005- 5.8%
2006- 6.0%
2007- 6.3%
2008- ?

Well, with the global financial economic crisis, I think growth will slow a bit there in 2009, like most places in Africa and worldwide.

This article says that growth in Kenya is forecast to be only 3-3.5% in 2009, but it's reasoning is from a questionable source (AIG).
Link: http://www.afriquejet.com/news/afri...economic-growth-projection-2009011519560.html

I don't believe that Libya will cease to be an "African Lion", that country has massive potential to continue to be one of the richest countries in Africa. Largely untapped Oil market to Americans, small population. It will have one of the highest income per capita in Africa for a long time.

Xusein said:

Well, with the global financial economic crisis, I think growth will slow a bit there in 2009, like most places in Africa and worldwide.

This article says that growth in Kenya is forecast to be only 3-3.5% in 2009, but it's reasoning is from a questionable source (AIG).
Link: http://www.afriquejet.com/news/afri...economic-growth-projection-2009011519560.html

I don't believe that Libya will cease to be an "African Lion", that country has massive potential to continue to be one of the richest countries in Africa. Largely untapped Oil market to Americans, small population. It will have one of the highest income per capita in Africa for a long time.

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Doesn't Libya already have Africa's highest GDP per capita? I know for sure that it has Africa's highest HDI. Either way I agree that in the future it will definitely be Africa's wealthiest nation, but their really isn't anything outside of oil. Another problem with Libya it's pretty much all government owned, theirs little innovation in the private sector. In terms of economic freedom it's up there with Cuba.

Yeah, I meant that they'd stay on top.

The fact that they are socialized, yet on top of most of Africa still is a good thing and shows how much potential it has. Imagine what can be done there if the leader there wasn't such an joke. I think that their per capita income would have been above $25,000 and the HDI would be above 0.900 by now if it were not for it's leadership and relative isolation for so long. It may be dependent on oil, but I'm sure that there's more natural resources in that large area that it occupies.

Xusein said:

Yeah, I meant that they'd stay on top.

The fact that they are socialized, yet on top of most of Africa still is a good thing and shows how much potential it has. Imagine what can be done there if the leader there wasn't such an joke. I think that their per capita income would have been above $25,000 and the HDI would be above 0.900 by now if it were not for it's leadership and relative isolation for so long. It may be dependent on oil, but I'm sure that there's more natural resources in that large area that it occupies.

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No doubt, heck even though they have Africa's highest HDI, it's still inferior to Mexico for example. They've slowly opened up a tourist industry but their not following the Egyptian, Tunisian or Moroccan example of allowing masses of people to come in. Instead appealing to the very wealthy demographic. Which is a shame considering the large amounts of Greek and Roman ruins.

Xusein said:

Well, with the global financial economic crisis, I think growth will slow a bit there in 2009, like most places in Africa and worldwide.

This article says that growth in Kenya is forecast to be only 3-3.5% in 2009, but it's reasoning is from a questionable source (AIG).
Link: http://www.afriquejet.com/news/afri...economic-growth-projection-2009011519560.html

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^^
Factoring in the recent problems and the global financial crisis, Kenya's growth will definitely be reduced, but the fundamentals are there for a quick recovery.

Matthias Offodile said:

I can largely subscribe to what you said!

Only two remarks:

Where did you hear from that Nigeria´s non-oil sector makes up a bigger percentage of its GDP? That´s new to me! Unfortunately, Naija is still heavily depenedent on oil and gas! As far as an increase in non-oil production is concerned, yes, you are right, this has occured but its percentage on the GDP scale is still marginal

Angola: I don´t think that the economy will decline due to lack of expertise, I talked to a few guys on SSC and from what I read, no Angola is something like a "gold rush" country and more and more people are beginning to set foot in the tertiary sector. You get a lot of well educated Angolan people abroad, you have got the tons of expats for the time being ( some of whom might eventually make up their mind to create their own business in Angola, in Africa many people came first as experts but decided to stay) and do not forget the growing number of so-called "retornandos", people that all bring their knowledge to Angola. So a declining economy which means minus growth won´t happen in Angola, the economy will most likely slow but not for the time being! (for the next five years)
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Sorry that I don't usually like to make comments in this section for some reasons. But, if you take a closer look at what he meant by the word "the largest GDP is now coming from non-oil sector " you will find out that it might likely be true. The oil sector,though, is the largest single foreign income earner for the country still, not the largest gross domestic product of the entire nation in absolute comparison - the oil sector should employ less than the banking sector,minning, Agriculture, manufacturing,construction industry,telecommunication, etc combine together and the total expenditure in these sectors is surpassing that of oil at the moment. The diversity is what I think he's pin-pointing out for us here, Mathias, not actually the single largest national income revenue generator.

Matthias Offodile said:

Naijalove, thanx for the link!

Africa´s Potential Lion Economies in the next decade

Nigeria(condition: reof Niger Delta Crisis , $30bn invested into physical infrastructure in the next three years but normally this should be no problem for Nigeria, if those conditions are met , the coming two yyears will be very crucial for Nigeria if all the major conditions are met - infrastructure, "controlled" corruption and stability - the sky is the limit:cheers: )

South Africa (it already is an emerging market)

Egypt

Algeria

Angola (the GDP of that country has spiralled upwards tremedously in the past years, it will continue to sky-rocket in the years to come)

Sudan

Morroco

Kenya

Ghana

Senegal


Africa´s potential lion baby economies

Tunisia

Botswana

Namibia

Gabon

Mauritius

Cape Verde (for tourism, financial offf-shore centre, real estate projects)

Sao Tomé (loads of oil)

Mozambique

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Why do you put Botswana and Gabon in a lower category than Senegal and Ghana? Even when Botswana and Gabon's populations are small compared to the other two countries, its GDP (PPP) are at the same level:

95 Ghana 31,331 $M
105 Botswana 25,676 $M
110 Senegal 20,601 $M
112 Gabon 20,178 $M

Source: IMF 2007.

We could even claim that Botswana and Gabon are in an upper category as regional powers in Africa (compared to Ghana and Senegal) since their GDP per capita is much higher:

Botswana 17 947 $
Gabon 14 094 $

:cheers: