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Which will grow to one million the fastest?

  • Wichita, KS

    Votes: 24 46.2%
  • Youngstown, OH

    Votes: 1 1.9%
  • Toledo, OH

    Votes: 6 11.5%
  • Springfield, MA

    Votes: 10 19.2%
  • Syracuse, NY

    Votes: 5 9.6%
  • Scranton-Wilkes-Barre, PA

    Votes: 2 3.8%
  • Lansing, MI

    Votes: 4 7.7%
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Here is the 2000 population and the growth rate from 1990 to 2000. Wichita is the only one that grew at a rapid pace between 1990 and 2000. Lansing also saw a healthy growth rate.

Springfield, MA - 680,014 (+1.0%)
Toledo, OH - 659,188 (+0.8%)
Syracuse, NY - 650,154 (-1.5%)
Youngstown, OH - 602,964 (-1.7%)
Wichita, KS - 571,166 (+11.7%)
Scranton, PA - 560,625 (-2.5%)
Lansing, MI - 447,728 (+3.5%)

My guess is that it will be Wichita, KS or Toledo, OH.

The reason I say this is because Toledo may be close to taking Monroe County away from Detroit. If it is able to do so by the next census, that would put the metro population between 825,000 and 830,000 by 2010. However, if the high growth rate continues in Wichita, and the stagnant growth rates continue for the rest of the group, that one will begin to pass them over the next several decades.

But it doesn't really matter, as none of these metros will probably see 1 million before 2050.
 

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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
hudkina said:
Here is the 2000 population and the growth rate from 1990 to 2000. Wichita is the only one that grew at a rapid pace between 1990 and 2000. Lansing also saw a healthy growth rate.

Springfield, MA - 680,014 (+1.0%)
Toledo, OH - 659,188 (+0.8%)
Syracuse, NY - 650,154 (-1.5%)
Youngstown, OH - 602,964 (-1.7%)
Wichita, KS - 571,166 (+11.7%)
Scranton, PA - 560,625 (-2.5%)
Lansing, MI - 447,728 (+3.5%)
That's old data. According to this website http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/popm/

Springfield, MA's growth rate has increased
Toldeo's growth has slowed down
Syracuse is now growing at a decent rate
Youngstown's declined has sped up
Wichita is not growing as fast
Scranton's decline has lessened
Lansing's growth is about the same
 

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Discussion Starter · #14 ·
Just wondering if anyone thinks one of these metros will be gobbled up by larger nearby metros?

Also, is anyone taking this into account?

-if one of these metros add a county or two (due to sprawl) after the next census, the metro could jump in population, maybe even get close to the million mark
 

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^That's not an option. Barring the end of the world and natural (or otherwise) catastorphes in the cities that are growing, one of these will eventually reach a million. Which one? Personally, I think they are all too far away to accurately predict that far into the future.
 

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Hah, yeah ok I guess I am just not informed enough on growth patterns in all of these cities on a metropolitan level to make an informed decision. I know a few of them arent doing so well, and I know a few are far to small and not in a prime for major growth of 500k people.
 
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