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World Bank Cuts Nigeria's Poverty Rate to 33.1%, Says North is Poorer


22 Jul 2014


*Predicts 7.4% growth in 2014
James Emejo

The World Bank Tuesday said there had been positive economic trend as well as significant progress made towards poverty eradication in the country.

It said in its second edition of the Nigeria Economic Report (NER) which was launched in Abuja that going by the recent rebasing of the economy as well as analysis from the new General Household Surveys (GHS) conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) with the support of the Bank, new poverty estimates in 2010/2011 and 2012/2013 should be within the range of 35.2 per cent and 33.1 per cent respectively.

Although the previous NBS Harmonised Nigeria Living Standards Survey (HNLSS) 2009/2010, which took a larger study sample into account had estimated poverty rate at 62.6 percent, the Breton woods institution said it had strong reasons to believe that "consumption was seriously underestimated in the large HNLSS household survey in 2009/2010."


It stated that an analysis of a panel survey data (GHS) of 5000 households for 2010/2011 and 2012/2013 provided "evidence that consumption is likely higher than previously estimated from the HNLSS survey."


Furthermore, the new GHS analysis put rural poverty at 46.3 per cent and 44.9 per cent in 2010/2011 and 2012/2013 respectively compared to 69.1 per cent and 51.2 per cent respectively in the HNLSS 2009/2010 estimates by the NBS.

The World Bank estimates further suggested that the number of poor Nigerians remained at 58 million adding that more than half of the figure are located in the North- east or North- west.

Specifically, it noted:" Poverty rates range from 16 per cent in the South- West to 52 per cent in the North-East. While the South and North central experienced declines in the poverty rate between 2010/2011 and 2012/2013, the poverty rate increased almost unchanged in the North West."
http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles...rty-rate-to-33-1-says-north-is-poorer/184259/
 

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I've always said the world bank is completely full of crap but this makes more sense to what's on the ground. Idk what bank is allowed to make a 29%age point error for 1 decade and still be cited the next day as reputable but whatever.

I never believed for a second that 'the average nigerian lives on less than 1 dollar a day". If you give someone 20 dollars as a gift in my village they'll even think you're insulting them sef.
 

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have always said bretton woods institutions are crap.
i never believe any of their stats mostly on poverty index. majority of kenyans, for example, wont even be able to survive on a dollar a day. and they put $2 a day as middle class. really?? when $2 is not even close to a descent lunch at a descent place for one person. i know so many people who do not work in formal employment sector. all they do is farm. they sell the produce and send their kids to school. and they surely do not live on a dollar a day!
 

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I tell you Ihenacho I wasn't never in to politics but I think we all should all help out in any way we could to make sure that president Goodluck Jonathan remain in power he is the best President in Nigeria history it obviously Nigeria is on a roll Boko Haram and their sponsors are failing day by day and very soon victory will be ours next decade will be crucial for Nigeria the way things are shaping up in ten years time there will be max diaspora returning home and Nigeria will announce to the world that we have arrived in the global stage.
 

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Here is another article that sheds more light.

World Bank affirms brighter economic outlook for Nigeria
Tuesday, 22 July 2014 21:27 Written by Bukky Olajide


Macroeconomic risks persist due to fundamental uncertainties’

NIGERIA'S short term macroeconomic outlook improved in the first half of 2014 relative to 2013, according to the World Bank in its new Nigeria Economic Report (NER) launched Tuesday in Abuja.

The report indicated that revenues to the federation have increased, foreign reserves have stabilised, the Excess Crude Account (ECA) has been augmented, and prospects for growth are stronger than last year.

The bank pointed out that the re-based GDP estimates has revealed a larger, more dynamic and complex economy than the previous statistics should. The report however stressed that macroeconomic risks remain due to uncertainty about future oil output, oil prices, and short term capital flows.

The NER analyses new data from household surveys in 2010/2011 and 2012/2013 to reassess poverty and living standards in Nigeria and concludes that poverty rates in Nigeria are likely significantly lower than previously believed, and progress toward poverty reduction may be stronger.

According to the report, poverty reduction in Nigeria appears to be primarily an urban phenomenon, with poverty rates in rural areas higher, and poverty reduction slower.

While recent panel surveys indicate that the per capita national poverty rate based on the official poverty line may now be as low as 33.1 per cent, a large share of the Nigerian population is still not far above the poverty line, indicating vulnerability.

“The combination of the new GDP and poverty estimates is valuable in giving us what we believe to be a clearer picture of development and poverty reduction in Nigeria,” said John Litwack, Lead Economist and Acting Country Manager of the World Bank.“ Both sets of numbers indicate the prime importance of urban areas for growth and poverty reduction.”

The NER also highlighted continuing differences between Nigeria’s regions in poverty reduction. For instance, the South and North Central regions showed progress in poverty reduction between 2010 and 2013, while the North West witnessed little change, and the North East experienced an increase in the poverty rate along with a general decline in living standards.

“Improvements in public services, key infrastructure to better connect markets, and measures to increase productivity in agriculture could help put Northern regions on a strong path toward poverty reduction”, said Litwack, lead author of the report, whilst also noting the critical role of security.
http://www.ngrguardiannews.com/business/172004-world-bank-affirms-brighter-economic-outlook-for-nigeria
 

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It basically backs up what I have always believed. Nigerians are not as poor as everybody thinks. Nigeria just has a large population of lower middle class who are still very vulnerable to any economic changes.
This is why Nigeria must work quickly to bring infrastructure up to par (light, roads, water) so that this vulnerable lower middle class can be pulled from the danger zone.
 

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The hilarious irony is plainly not evident to the usual suspects...celebrating the new figures from an institution you have long since thrown in the garbage can :lol:

Surely, if everything the WB have said until now is utter rubbish and lies, then this new report must be disbelieved as well?
 

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China has stated this week that the World Bank has overestimated their GDP (PPP) because prices in China are actually higher than the WB estimates. I wouldn't be surprised if the same is true with Nigeria too.
 

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China has stated this week that the World Bank has overestimated their GDP (PPP) because prices in China are actually higher than the WB estimates. I wouldn't be surprised if the same is true with Nigeria too.
Keep hoping. Anyway China's strategy is to sneak up on you. They don't want the crown yet so it's in their interest to appear smaller than they are.

What basis do you have that the gdp in nigeria overstated other than the typical South African negativity
 

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Keep hoping. Anyway China's strategy is to sneak up on you. They don't want the crown yet so it's in their interest to appear smaller than they are.

What basis do you have that the gdp in nigeria overstated other than the typical South African negativity
If they made this mistake in China, which has FAR more reliable statistics than Nigeria, they are likely to have made this mistake elsewhere. There are a number of countries that seem to have made unusually large jumps in GDP (PPP), including Nigeria, but also Egypt, Iraq, Saudi Arabia etc. PPP is as good as the data used to measure it and I wouldn't be surprised if the World Bank has made similar overestimations in a number of countries.
 

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If anyone is using sleep cause poverty is going down in Nigeria shame on you and the culprits know who they are once again if you are using the will to live just go to the next bridge somewhere in Southern Africa and just do the needful. Like P Diddy said you can hate us now but you can't stop us now.Rock on the Giant of Africa keep powering on and let the hatez keep hating before they know it you will start telling them what to do.
 

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Anyway China's strategy is to sneak up on you.
Not it is not. As we said the basket of goods and services used in the calculations of GDP (PPP) can be different on the personal/organization that calculates it. It is completely normal that the WB might have overstated the cost of the basket for China since it is based on an international average. Besides the average cost of basket of goods and services can vary that much from one year to the other, for them to "sneak up" on you as you so eloquently put it.
 

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If they made this mistake in China, which has FAR more reliable statistics than Nigeria, they are likely to have made this mistake elsewhere. There are a number of countries that seem to have made unusually large jumps in GDP (PPP), including Nigeria, but also Egypt, Iraq, Saudi Arabia etc. PPP is as good as the data used to measure it and I wouldn't be surprised if the World Bank has made similar overestimations in a number of countries.
I asked what you had to support your position. Not to make an theoretical leap. What proof do you have. Secondly, provide a link for China's statement that the world bank figures were off. I'd be curious to read that. it's your opinion that china has far more reliable stats that nigeria. And that nigeria has made unusual leap in gdp. The reasons for the leap are well documented. Even the USA rebased and increased by as much as the entire state of Pennsylvania. Your statements on irao Egypt and Saudi Arabia are simply false.
 

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Not it is not. As we said the basket of goods and services used in the calculations of GDP (PPP) can be different on the personal/organization that calculates it. It is completely normal that the WB might have overstated the cost of the basket for China since it is based on an international average. Besides the average cost of basket of goods and services can vary that much from one year to the other, for them to "sneak up" on you as you so eloquently put it.
China and even japan have underplayed their strengths during their rise. They gain more from understating their hand. Attaining the top position increases pressure on them to take on more responsibilities as well
 

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China and even japan have underplayed their strengths during their rise. They gain more from understating their hand. Attaining the top position increases pressure on them to take on more responsibilities as well
We are talking about calculations of GDP (PPP), not their geopolitical positioning and how they portray themselves on the world stage. WB's cost of basket of goods and service will not change much y/y because of that.

Anyways, good to hear to Nigeria's poverty rate has been corrected to properly reflect reality.
 

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My point is it worked with the WB to reach these figures. Then refuses to publish them and then says it's disagrees with them. It's clearly meant to underplay it's strength for geopolitical reasons.

See:

There's one group that seems utterly unhappy about these numbers, and that's the Chinese government. The country's National Bureau of Statistics rejected the World Bank report, despite having taken part in the study.

The bureau “expressed reservations” about the study’s methodology and “did not agree to publish the headline results for China,” AP reports.

China may fear added pressure to sign on to trade or climate agreements if it's seen as the world's largest economy, AP speculates.
 

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Ekema ignore those fool I know thier mind set and the principles installed in them since childhood how many times have those clowns used the same data that showed 70 percent of Nigerian living in poverty to mock and look down on Nigeria now that the same data have^^ corrected their miss calculation now it is unreliable wonders shall never end I bet you if the same source had shown poverty rising they will be the first to post it anyway those two clown are nonentities who gives a rat ass what their opinions are.
 
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