[mdomiati]

Is there an end in site to the falling property prices and rental rates?

I was planning on buying a studio in the Marina as an investment (I already own a 2 bedroom that I live in), but I'm honestly worried about the long term prospects of the Dubai property market. What if the low prices we're currently seeing are the new normal? What if the new normal is even 20% or 30% lower than the current prices?

 

[mdomiati]

Qatar Cabinet approves proposals to allow foreigners own property
14/03/2019
DOHA: Qatar’s Cabinet has approved proposals to allow foreigners to own property and be granted residency at the same time, according to an official statement.
Non-Qataris would be allowed to fully own property in 10 unspecified areas of the country, said a statement from the Qatar News Agency.
“The Cabinet agrees to allow non-Qatari ownership of residential villas within residential complexes and to allow non-Qatari ownership of shops within commercial complexes,” said the QNA. The law also covers commercial property.
The government will identify 16 areas in the country where property contracts could be held over a period of 99 years.

Good move that will certainly attract foreign and domestic investment, but it would've been better if it was freehold instead of 99 year leases.

 

[mdomiati]

Please don't give me lessons in capitalism, I was born into that system. I know nothing else.

The drop in real estate, and rents have become a "thing" now. Where I'm from it's booming now, and boom even more in ten years in par with the world trend.

BTW wording such as will be, should be, can be, should have, would have are just lame excuses. What matters is now, and as now stands in Dubai it's a downward spiral if you go by facts, and figures.

If you're emotionally attached to the place then that's something totally different, but this is a property, and investment thread.

Like Jerry said "show me the money '!!!

We need to look at economic fundamentals in order to understand if this is just another downturn where the market will recover in a few years, or if there is a systematic problem that is causing a bleak long term forecast.

I'm not an expert so I won't claim it's one or the other, but I'm very interested in hearing from experts who can provide an educated analysis coupled with facts.

That said, can you please explain why you think this is not just another temporary downturn?

 

[mdomiati]

Dubai is not a normal economy and its ups and downs cannot be explained the same way a normal country's can be.

In Dubai, 75% of the population can simply pack the bags and leave tomorrow if they want to. Dubai thrives on money coming from abroad. Once that stops the gravy train stops.

Regardless of whether it's a normal economy or not, it is an economy that can be analyzed.

I don't like all the doom and gloom posts because all they do is fear mongering. If you think Dubai is screwed for the long term, please explain why.

Dubai has flourished in the past because they got some things right, and they can keep flourishing with the right formula.

Things are slow right now, but that doesn't mean that it will remain like this forever.

 

[mdomiati]

It can be analyzed but the model you're using to analyze it doesn't fit Dubai. You're using a thermometer to measure length. Doesn't work.

You're still not providing a convincing argument for your claim of a negative long term outlook.

 

[mdomiati]

Maybe this will help flesh out the problems

https://www.ameinfo.com/industry/re...operty-prices-will-continue-to-fall-into-2021

The author makes some good points that can explain the current slump, but there's no long term forecast in the article (5 years, 10 years, 20 years from now). That's the point that I was making to the other posters. They're saying that it's the end of the world and prices will never go up again without providing any explanation or evidence, but all the information available points to a market downturn that will eventually recover in a couple of years.

 

[mdomiati]

I have a prospective tenant who wants to send me the entire annual rent upfront via bank transfer from the UK. Does this sound dodgy? He's wiling to sign a local Rera rental contract.

 

[mdomiati]

I'll just leave this here.

 

[mdomiati]

Great, but can you tell us what this graph is showing?

Dubai real estate prices over the last 20 years, obviously notice the price increase over the last 6 month or so..

 

[mdomiati]

The market is absolutely nuts right. I would say most areas are now on par or above 2014 peak prices. You could've picked up a Garden Home on the Palm for AED7m 12 months ago. They are now going for AED15m.

The prices have been climbing slowly but steadily since late last year, but definitely not on par or above 2014 peak prices. It will take a couple of years for them to reach that level again and hopefully even higher, before they crash again and the cycle repeats