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actually there have been so many threads about specific questions on specific properties like towers.

in my opinion it has become too much and a lot of double threads have been created.

this is why i go for a new sticky thread in which everybody is welcomed to ask our members about their views on specific property, private investment ambitions and the property market in general.
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i purchased a few properties from the auction last year, thinking at the time they were great deals. How wrong was I? Since purchasing them prices have dropped a further 20%.
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i was in the emaar sales centre last week.

busiest i've seen it in quite some time - full of Chinese buyers.
Not always true - I've won before and i was the only bidder ( which i regret now)
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Most of my portfolio is in Downtown. The rental yield compression in the past year has been awful. Burj Vista, Vida Downtown, Address Fountain Views all coming into the market this year. Same issue expected for next year and the year after.
lose about 1.2% - 1.5% to service fees
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hmmm according to almost every broker in Dubai sales volumes have bounced back quickly.....doesn't make much sense to me. Who is actually buying right now? i'm on the fence right now as to whether prices can crash much lower. We are already at 2009/10 prices (if not lower) in most communities.
Stay clear of this
Hi Guys , They are advertising a lot recently SAAM VEGA. It is a project in Falcon city , basically I think Hotel inside Pyramid (the idea is nice and funny). They offer this with rental guarantee (we all know in Dubai nothing is guarantee)..
Anyway anyone has some deep information or news regarding this project which is under construction?
And Developer also ..
Thank you
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having said all this.... is it crazy to start thinking about investing again?
anyone interested in setting up a brokerage here? I find the majority of brokers here really dont understand the product. They are indirectly responsible for the price declines especially in newer communities such as dubai hills. As soon as a property is handover over owners are immediately put under pressure by brokers to reduce asking prices to reflect the 'market'. It wouldn't be an issue if all owners and landlords held firm.

thats a good starting point to understand actual property transactions. The raw data is from the DLD. I imagine some of the ridiculously low transactions in any sub community are probably 'gifts'. Doesn't' include specific villa sub communities.

I had a broker who sold me a property a few years ago call me last week and ask me if i would now consider selling the aforementioned property at -35%. insane.

anyway going forward i will be increasing the rents and/or asking prices on my portfolio. got to start somewhere. i hope others follow suit and dont let brokers dictate the market. as owners/landlords we need to start exerting more pressure
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i normally wouldnt trust it - i've done a sense check with the raw data file published on DLD and it all tallies up with this site. The website is just a bit more user friendly than the DLD data dump.
I Wouldn't trust or use data from any property broker. They probably use tracking to collect visitors data.

Better use specialized advisors like property monitor. It's a paid subscriber service for detailed market reports but you can get some free info too. Or directly from DLD, it's a learning curve to understand the area/community names and filter out some transactions.

The brokers who ask you to sell for -35% probably received a call from a "buyer" earlier that day asking for a distress deal but they don't have any listings with them. So they call their database to see if a seller will take the bait. The keyword now is % below original price. The lower the better.
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perfect summary
Anyone wanting to buy just wait, and focus on these two fundamentals.

First is "debt distress" which will effect every UAE resident, business, corporation, government entity from the very top to the bottom.

Second is "mass exodus" because once the flood gates get opened it's going to be a tsunami.

Focus on what's really happening, and not what the local news, and manipulative brokers want you to believe. People are losing jobs in the hundreds of thousands, businesses closing, trade and supply faltering, nobody's paying anyone, millions will leave except the unlucky ones who are debt trapped, government issuing bonds to raise cash, KSA screwed up fighting an oil war with the United States. etc, etc. On top of all of this the real estate market has a glut with many more units expected to further flood the market with a population in UAE that could drop to 4-5 million people.

On top of all of this you get these local brokers who only have a mobile phone, and laptop invested in Dubai, office cubicals provided by his, or hers employer playing mental gymnastics with naive investors, and their hard earned money.

Remember when buying, and selling it's the most convincing liar who makes the deal. The buyer as of now has all the power so don't bend to the local bubble boy, and girl brokers, and their deranged narrative, and motive. You are top the food chain.
People are still buying.....transactions have picked up significantly. On a personal level i managed to sell a villa in JGE for a nice little profit to an end user after receiving multiple offers. It was on the market for less than week. Having said that i am still trying to reconcile the increase in transactions to pre-covid levels that has happened to quickly especially in light of the job losses/ salary cuts and overall economic uncertainty. Also when i think its a bad time to invest it usually ends up being the best time and i've missed the opportunity! Perhaps we have reached the bottom of the market in terms of prices....
for whatever reason, prices are actually going up in certain areas...i've now managed to offload a dubai hills villa at OP... earlier this year i was 20% below OP on the same villa. small bidding war on the villa as well which is bonkers
villa prices are up 10%-15% here since March
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I can tell you on the ground the turnaround in demand and prices has been quite insane. I never expected this to happen this quickly and this dramatically. Looking back, it has now become very clear that the bottom in terms of pricing across key/popular communities was c.12-15 months ago.

For example - villas in Dubai Hills are being sold at 30-40% premiums to OP. 12 months ago these same villas were being sold at -25% OP. This is a trend being seen across all villa communities. It has quickly become a sellers market.

I'm starting to see price increases are beginning to flow down into apartments as well......

Time will tell how sustainable all this is but after 6-7 years of seeing my investments slowly lose value the current market dynamics are a huge relief!
A few things -

Its not hearsay chap. You obviously dont live in dubai or have any direct investments otherwise you would know what has happened in the last 6 months.

I'm not an agent.

The transactions i am referring to are villas.

Believe it or not, despite all the commentary regarding oversupply there is a distinct lack of villa availability in key communities in Dubai right now.

Nobody is arguing that apartment prices aren't down.
The hear-say stories from real estate agents may sound nice (see above), but the reality is the opposite. This is the market index compiled from data made available by the Dubai Land Department. See for yourself. Prices are down around 40 to 50% from its peak in 2015. Only Jan and Feb 2021 (not in the graph) have an index level of around 1080. This could suggest a bottoming out in prices. But too early to tell.

View attachment 1205177
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Also the problem with charts and data like this is that you miss out on what is happening at a microlevel in popular areas/communities/buildings. The decrease in prices is not as pronounced in those areas. Furthermore there are literally thousands of random apartments buildings in the middle of nowhere that feed into the statistics above and drag down aggregate prices - any investor who has any common sense would have avoided those anyway. Contrary to popular opinion, if you were smart with your investments you could have made a significant amount of money in the last 6-7 years in Dubai.
The hear-say stories from real estate agents may sound nice (see above), but the reality is the opposite. This is the market index compiled from data made available by the Dubai Land Department. See for yourself. Prices are down around 40 to 50% from its peak in 2015. Only Jan and Feb 2021 (not in the graph) have an index level of around 1080. This could suggest a bottoming out in prices. But too early to tell.

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  • So we have roughly a 11% increase in villa prices over the last 6 months across Dubai based on the chart/data above.
  • Like I said if you focus on popular communities/areas the % increase in price is much much higher. In fact prices in some areas are higher than 2014 peaks.
  • Also there is a time lag, check back in 3 months - the % increase will be much higher. The data above typically reflects transactions that were agreed 10-12 weeks ago. Sharp increase in prices since January 2021
Since you asked for it. Same index for villas. The drop from the top of 2014 to the bottom in Q4 2020 is 38%. The recent upswing since then is often explained by shift in popularity from apartments to villas due to COVID19.

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Just to be clear - I definitely wouldn't invest right now. Many communities are now completely overpriced. Another example, villas on the palm are up c.40% over the past 12 months and there is very limited stock.
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