6m for Marina Residences looks very expensive vs current launches. So the question I have would be - how much lower can the developers go on pricing? The point at which they have barely any margin would be a logical bottom.

I recently bought some property because the launches are way down and prices look very cheap. Fully willing to be wrong for a little while. Right now seems like the peak flood of handovers (just look at Downtown with 7+ towers handing over now and in the next couple of months). This will continue through 2021, but slowing in 2022, and way lower in 2023/24.

Does that assessment sound about right?

Regarding the overall Dubai market:

-Everyone expected 2020 to be tough, with so much supply coming online. Some supply might now slip to future years, which unfortunately would prolong the pain. I would much prefer 2020 to be the year where everything gets dumped on the market and we hit bottom so I hope that as much as possible is completed in 2020.

-There are a lot of investors waiting to see the bottom, they've been holding fire and staying on the sidelines waiting for a clear sign. This is how all markets work when they are going down, most people wait to buy until they see some upswing. Bottom-catchers are a smaller percentage of investors.

-The supply for 2023, 2024 was already pretty light. New launches had dried up in the 2nd half of 2019 and are now totally dead. The launches that have occurred are small buildings with less units (compare Burj Crown to Address Fountain Views as an example). If construction continues roughly on schedule, then there will be a period in a few years where there is very little new supply.

-The government has intervened in the Real Estate market. The boom and bust model is not very attractive to them. Remember that everything in Dubai is new. Their handling of the economy included. Burning investors over and over is not attractive or long-term thinking. Cancelled projects and megaprojecs is not cool. I predict that once we do hit bottom, the government will try to manage the market to behave like most developed markets in the world: predictable and consistent price growth of around 5% per year over the long-term. But managed even better because they have much more control than most governments.

-That would mean no more flooding the market with launches in the good times, and no more cancelling projects because you got over-stretched.

I already invested last year and so was early. And I actually want to use the apartment when it's ready (Elie Saab). So I do have a vested interest. But I like to think I did apply some logical thinking before making the decision to buy If anyone has a different opinion of how things will go, I'd be interested to hear.

I saw this quote from Damac in an article:
"Damac is focusing on selling its existing inventories and is offering discounts to customers willing to pay ahead of schedule for homes purchased before the pandemic hit. The company also reduced prices of properties in developments by as much as 10 per cent to entice buyers, the chairman said."

And saw a post on Instagram about a unit in Address Opera with a 6 year PHPP, so assume Emaar got super flexible with PHPPs. But since the prices for resale there were already -30% vs Original Price...I don't think the payment plan will help shift units.

Did anyone hear about developers (especially Emaar) dropping prices on already-launched projects? With no launches and no "deals", their 2nd half of Q1 and whole Q2 will be virtually zero sales.

Hi Guys, I have a question: Has anyone ever successfully gotten a refund and cancelled a purchase from Emaar for a project delay? I see lawyers offering the service, but lawyers will always try to make money even if there is no hope of winning a case.

My situation is that I bought a unit in Elie Saab on Emaar Beachfront. Completion in my SPA is listed as March 30 2023. Recently Emaar launched a new online sales tool and in there the payment plans show handover delayed to October 8th 2024. They are in breach of contract as far as I see it unless they can show Force Majeure since the contract allows for a max delay of 12 months. I believe the real reason is that they were trying to sell all of Tower 2 in one transaction, but that deal fell through due to Coronavirus and now they can't launch T2 on the market and expect healthy sales so decided to delay.

Mainly I am disappointed with the way that they look after existing customers vs hustling for new customers. There was no communication to apologise for delaying the project. Meantime Beach Isle launched a year later and is already under construction. The way that I found out was in their new sales material (screenshot below) even though the contract says that they must promptly inform of any delay!

To anyone who hasn't bought, I would strongly recommend buying a ready resale property, since you can go and see it and not be surprised by stuff like this or Dubai Creek Harbour (renders with the Tower and the lovely mangrove nature reserve coming all the way up to the island vs the big ugly tract of land that is actually nearby and empty hole where the tower and mall should be). Not to mention the prices on ready properties are 30% lower now than Emaar are still charging for their off-plan stuff.

Agents will always pitch off plan first because of the huge commissions. I even suspect that commissions go way over 5% for the real dog projects that no on wants and never sell.

Dubai will require a negative COVID test to enter from August 1st. We plan to visit for 10 days in early October and have booked hotels but will cancel if this is still required. It makes stopovers very unattractive and I would imagine will not help tourism recover. The test itself is not very pleasant and needing to specifically go to a clinic within a certain timeframe means you would need a good reason to go to Dubai rather than just wanting a casual holiday.

If this rule is still in effect we won't come to Dubai as planned in October:

"You may need to take another COVID-19 PCR test on arrival. If you take a test at the airport, you must remain in your hotel or residence until you receive the test result. If the test result is positive, you will be required to undergo isolation and follow the Dubai Health Authority guidelines. "

We wanted to go to Istanbul for a few days, then on to Dubai for 10 days, then to Asia, then back to Dubai, then home. This would mean a few compulsory tests (on arrival and departure each time I assume) but also a big risk and lots of stress, because if you happen to test positive (false or real positive)...then your holiday is ruined. Much better to go somewhere else.

I understand that lots of people have the view that the stricter the better with COVID restrictions (I don't have that view), but Dubai will have less tourists while they have this rule and the economy will not bounce back to previous levels. Keep in mind that very few countries require a negative test result for ALL visitors - even those coming from "safe" countries.

I personally hope they cancel the negative test requirement soon, but I guess it's unlikely.

My payment plan has payments due on project completion milestones. 20% construction etc. The project is 18 months late (Elie Saab, beachfront), so I guess all the payments are delayed. If you have a payment plan that only stipulates dates and not completion %s, then I guess yes you will just need to pay it. Tying up your money for years is not so cool, especially when a project is delayed for no good reason - for example just because they are slowing down deliveries to reduce supply on the market.

Dubai Creek Harbour is not just missing the mall and tower, it's missing the other access roads, the park, metro, and they haven't let the water in on all sides of the island. Also the coolest buildings - The Grand and Address Harbour Point are not completed yet. In the future it should be possible to walk all around the outside of the island enjoying the water and downtown views and go to the park in the middle, more shops, good access..and overall should be a nice place to live.

Things are much more positive for the Dubai property market compared to just a few months ago. So many people came to Dubai to escape dumb lockdowns in their own countries and many of them buy property. If you look at the prices of Emaar launches in Emaar Beachfront for example, the prices are way higher now (20%+ increase) and they sell out in days. There is record sales volume. They are still limiting new launches and supply.

So although there are still issues, the market has probably bottomed and so this thread should be more positive and less doom and gloom. I think since these projects that burned investors, rules have changed regarding escrow and payment plans tied to construction milestones etc?

Will be interesting to see if the Committee for Real Estate that they set up will keep a lid on launches, even with the hot market. Developers have slowed supply by delaying project completions but would also be nice to see them have a more sustainable approach to launches.
Overall things are looking very positive and I hope this bodes well for stuff like the DCH tower and other stalled mega projects.