[mike okane]

can't believe i missed that! redonculously! ..get some watter down yer neck lad

 

[oscar9]

These stats need to be taken with a pinch of salt, the met office show Manchester warmer than Leeds overall , but these are at the airports, unaffected by the heat islands effect, which would make Manchester even warmer, and Leeds too, of course.

One puts Leeds wetter than Manc, another puts Manc wetter than leeds, seems to depend on the exact location, Some are actually taken from Bingley near Bradford, which is misleading, and some are taken from Woodford to represent Manchester


Manchester is not a particularly wet place compared to other cities in the west , like Glasgow and Plymouth for example. The rain tag is really due the the famous Macintosh which was made there, Macintosh mill is still there I think, near the Wakefield student tower.

Lets go back out and enjoy the sun on this warm humid evening, I will get the virtual beers in:cheers::cheers:

A gin and tonic for me whilst its Friday:cheers2:

 

[VDB]

Manchester is actually one of the driest cities in the UK - okay, not the driest, but it also experiences less rainy days than the UK average. Indeed, for a western city it's very dry.

And anyway none of this will matter in 10 years - the EU and American Military are building on technology to manipulate the weathe. As soon as Manchester city council get control of that, it'll be sun sun sun!!!!

 

[Yorkshire Boy]

Having studied Leeds' urban heat island in great depth, I found on an extremely calm night (wind at <3mph) and using several hundred individual samples taken simultaneously, that the temperature difference between city centre and rural-urban fringe areas to be 5C at night. This will be less during the day (I'd hypothesise around 3C) due to the fact that night-time exhibits the greatest temperature difference, but considering Leeds is situated on several large hills, potentially exposing any heat island to upper winds, this is still quite large enough to be concerning.

Anyway, just thought I'd add my tuppence worth since you guys were obsessing over it.

 

[VDB]

Due to get very hot in Manchester next week - Thursday is due to hit 25C in the shade, so expect 30C in the sun. Wednesday and Friday are due to be the same too.

It'll rain tonight - there's a 96% chance of that happening. This will die down towards sunrise and we'll have yet another sunny day tomorrow. The rain tonight will be the first rain for 7 days, the ground is starting to get very dry. After tonight, it may rain on Monday night (relatively unlikely) but then after that it's very unlikely it'll rain until next Saturday, and even then there's only a 70% chance of that happening (again, overnight).

Forecast for next week: very dry, very hot.

http://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:00000.1.03334

 

[ill tonkso]

Manchester won't hit 30, even the South Coast isn't expected to hit that heat. BBC says 25.

 

[VDB]

Manchester won't hit 30, even the South Coast isn't expected to hit that heat. BBC says 25.

Temperature is taken from in the shade, so I meant in the sun it'll probably hit 30. The shade is always about 5C colder than the sun.

You're right it won't hit 30 in Manchester in official figures, but in the sun it'll be roasting

 

[Aaronj09]

Manchester won't hit 30, even the South Coast isn't expected to hit that heat. BBC says 25.

The South Coast is cooler than here in the summer. Since 1960, the highest temp in Leeds has been 34.4C, 34C in Manchester and in Bognor Regis it's 31.5C.

But anyway, nice day today. My tan is coming along nicely.

 

[PURITAN1978]

Anyone reckon we will get 100F this year ?? I

 

[VDB]

38C!? I very much doubt it, not for another few years yet.

What's the hottest record for the UK?

Edit: for the record, I'd hate UK summers to start averaging in the 30Cs - in Turkey a few weeks ago it got to 47C and I couldn't cope

 

[cosmictanya]

38C!? I very much doubt it, not for another few years yet.

What's the hottest record for the UK?

Edit: for the record, I'd hate UK summers to start averaging in the 30Cs - in Turkey a few weeks ago it got to 47C and I couldn't cope

just over 100f in surrey, kent, london, and heathrow is the record.

Highest, 38.5°C, 101.3°F, Faversham, Kent, 10 August 2003.

i love it.

 

[Aaronj09]

I don't mind heat, as long as it's not humid. There was one stand-out day last year that felt like Florida - it was 31C with high humidity, very hazy, the air felt like I was walking in soup. Terrible stuff. The heat in Madrid is tolerable, since it's drier.

 

[PURITAN1978]

The heat and humidity is building this year so we could get high 30s. Just takes a low in the Atlantic and a high over the continent .... It's very muggy tonight !

 

[mike okane]

got this double Rainbow in Leeds last week

never seen two like this before

 

[VDB]

Beautiful.

I've seen it once before but my camera phone wasn't good enough to pick it up in a picture

 

[Birmingham]

To be honest. This summers has been pretty much perfect for me. I don;t want it to get to much hotter than this. 20-25c days and 10-15c nights. Sporadic thunderstorms, plenty of sun, not to hot but not cold.

It's been great.

If by 2050 we're going to be having constant 25-30c days for longer duration and more rain we'll be a tropical country. Disgusting creatures will be able to live and survive easily and our beautiful vegetation will die off and be replaced by more arid specimens.

The beaches will be lovely though and come 2100 Scotland will be the new Mediterranean. :cheers:

 

[Birmingham]

The Predictions for 2050 look something like this.

North West - Average Annual Temp - 11c (2c rise)
West Midlands - Average Annual Temp - 12c (3c rise)
London - Average Annual Temp - 13c (2c rise)

North West - Average Warmest Day - 30c (3c rise)
West Midlands - Average Annual Temp - 32c (3c rise)
London - Average Annual Temp - 33c (2c rise)

By 2050 - London could see 30+ days of 32c days and 18c nights.

 

[VDB]

^^

I agree this has (so far) been a good summer. In fact it's been pretty much warm and sunny since about March when we had that week-long heatwave. It's been sunny most days, very little rain..... I'm happy.

But it could go two ways for the UK as a result of climate change. One way is a doomsday prophecy, the other is what we wanna hear ...

1) History has shown us that desalination of the Atlantic Ocean causes Europe to plunge into an Ice Age because the Atlantic Conveyor (which brings hot weather north, warming Northern Europe relative to its latitude) is switched off almost. What is now the Great Lakes used to be one large lake, and over time the water from this lake found itself flooding into the Atlantic Ocean, leaving the many different lakes we have today. But this surge of fresh water into the Atlantic desalinised the ocean and switched off the conveyor, plunging Europe into an Ice Age. With Greenland's ice melting, we have another surge of freshwater into the Atlantic, sparking fears that the Atlantic conveyor could again be switched off, meaning Britain's climate becomes more like Goose Bay, Canada: which is currently averaging about 15 degrees in summer, and much MUCH colder in Winter. Wet all year.

---- OR ----

2) The general warming of the planet leads to hotter temperatures everywhere. It'll get wetter in the wettest countries and drier in the driest countries. A lot of British people when they hear this moan and complain, but they forget that Britain is not a "wet" country. It's one of the driest - our climate will get drier. With the heat intensity increased, evaporation will too, the formation of clouds will decrease, humidity will decrease and they'll be less rain. Summers will get hotter and Winters will get warmer. Winters will get warmer at a faster pace than Summers getting hotter, and we're already seeing this happen at a remarkably fast rate. The UK experiences far more heat and sunshine in Winter than it ever has before. With less water in the atmosphere and less cloud cover, the temperature shoots up. With it being warmer all over the planet, especially in inland regions, the likelyhood of experiencing an "Indian Summer", when the wind blows from the SE, is likely to increase as well - meaning longer, more intense heatwaves in summer.




We'll see. Being an optimist, I think the second option will (and is) happen(ing). If you study the Met Office's data released in 2010 on climate there's a few tell-tale signs of both options happening in Britain:

In blue I have highlighted signs of OPTION 1 occurring, in red I have highlighted signs of OPTION 2.

This is compiled from the Met Office used comparing their 1981-2010 climate data from that of 1961-1991 and 1971-2000:

Temperature

The UK annual mean temperature has increased by around 0.25 °C when comparing 1981-2010 with 1971-2000. This is a similar difference to that between 1971-2000 and 1961-1990.

This trend in warming across the UK is consistent with that observed globally over land.

While temperature has generally increased, there are differences depending on whether maximum, mean, or minimum temperature is considered, the region of the UK, and whether it is the monthly, seasonal, or annual value of interest.

For example, the December mean temperature for the UK has actually decreased when comparing 1981-2010 with 1971-2000. This will partly be because of the influence of the exceptionally cold month of December 2010.

Elements correlated with temperature in general show consistent trends. For example, the UK annual average number of days of air frost, and days of snow lying have decreased when comparing 1981-2010 with 1971-2000.



Rainfall

The UK annual average rainfall has increased by a relatively small amount - around 2% - when comparing 1981-2010 with 1971-2000. This is a similar increase to that from 1961-1990 to 1971-2000.

While most changes in average rainfall are small - typically less than 5% - it depends on the area of interest and whether monthly, seasonal or annual averages are considered. For example, the UK July average has increased by more than 10% when comparing 1981-2010 with 1971-2000. This will be influenced by a run of notably wet Julys from 2007 to 2010, whereas relatively dry Julys in the 1970s are omitted.

In contrast, the UK monthly average rainfall for both September and December has decreased slightly.




Sunshine

The UK annual average sunshine duration shows a small increase when comparing 1981-2010 with 1971-2000. The averages for summer and autumn are almost unchanged, whereas those for winter and spring show modest increases (typically 5%).

 

[Birmingham]

It's true. The UK is not a wet country. It's temperate.

With the warming up of the planet the UK will get drier and will have significantly less cloud cover and rainy days, but when the rain does fall, it will be a lot heavier which will cause more extreme flooding.

The UK at the current trends would become pretty much snowless come 2050 and 2100 completely void of the white stuff.

However, as a fan of the sun this does not bother me. We're actually very lucky that during this period of "potentially" extreme global warming. The UK and it's longitude is probably in the best position of the lot. An island nation in an already temperate climate.

What we've got to watch out for is all those Spaniards coming over to Newquay and making it like Marbella. Drunken party animals.

 

[VDB]

Having said all this stuff about climate change however, I'm more than convinced that by 2050 humans will have a grasp on changing the weather for themselves. We're already beginning to see the shoots of Cloud Seeding, i.e. making clouds drop their moisture by spraying silver iodide into them. Completely harmless for the environment, the chemical isn't even found in the rainwater that falls. It's proving priceless in places like Texas where long dry summers often cause crop failures, and could come in useful in places like Sub-Saharan Africa where desert is wasted space which could be utilised to feed Africa and a growing world population. Could we have a green desert of farmlands and forests by 2050?

Of course, cloud seeding can only occur when they're actually clouds or moisture in the atmosphere to exploit. If it's a low humidity dry day then you can't simply just make it rain.

Cloud seeding is being used in the Far East to clear smog and pollution from the skies above cities.

If the UK does get wetter/drizzlier/colder, then perhaps a solution would be to "shoot down" rain clouds over the Ocean south west of the UK, where the prevailing wind is, so that by the time the air reaches us it's cloudless - giving sunny weather. That would mean less flooding - as Birmingham says, the UK's climate is becoming more "extreme". So it'll be very very dry by 2050, but when it does rain it'll be heavy, causing flash floods in vulnerable places like Sheffield (in the foothills of seven hills with rivers flowing into the city from every single one), Somerset Levels and the Lake District (Cockermouth).


Cloud seeding in progress to end drought in the US (Texas):